Inflation will fall sharply; the Fed will pause rate hikes; earnings will fall; the stock market will sink in the first half of 2023, only to rally in the second half anticipating a stronger 2024; and the U.S. will continue outperforming every other market.

Study Notes

The Federal Reserve raised the Fed Funds Rate by 50 basis points to 4.25-4.50% in December.
This move was well telegraphed and anticipated by the markets.
With the current additional hike, rates are now well into restrictive territory to help slow inflation.
Inflation is still a concern for the Fed, and they are looking to slow it down with these moves.
There is a mild recession in the United States, and Europe will endure a deeper recession driven by energy in the first half of 2023.
China will continue to see economic challenges based on its COVID policies and rising geopolitical tensions.
2023 is shaping up to be a year of certainty for most market watchers: certain that inflation will fall sharply, certain that the Fed will pause rate hikes; certain that earnings will fall; certain the stock market will sink in the first half of 2023, only to rally in the second half anticipating a stronger 2024; and certain that the U.S. will continue outperforming every other market.