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Questions and Answers

What is the definition of a variable in political analysis?

  • A measurable and abstract concept that does not change.
  • A property that can take on different values across cases or over time. (correct)
  • An intrinsic part of a concept that can act independently.
  • A fixed attribute that describes a specific group.

Which of the following best describes nominal measurement?

  • It categorizes cases based on the presence/absence of attributes. (correct)
  • It ranks cases based on a measurable attribute.
  • It focuses on defining absolute levels of measurement.
  • It involves numerical interpretation of data.

What does the term 'dimensions of a concept' refer to?

  • The variations present in observable cases.
  • The quantitative measures of a concept.
  • Intrinsic parts that are independent of one another. (correct)
  • The underlying causes and effects of a concept.

Interval measurement differs from ordinal measurement in that:

<p>It possesses meaningful intervals between values. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What can be said about ordinal measurement?

<p>It ranks categories but does not maintain equal intervals. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the primary purpose of a measure in political analysis?

<p>To assess whether a concept applies to specific cases. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which of the following statements about concept measurement is false?

<p>Nominal measures allow for ranking based on categorical data. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which statement is true regarding the characteristics of dimensions of a concept?

<p>They can be seen as sub-concepts not influencing the concept itself. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is a key assumption made when using adjustment to conclude that X causes Y?

<p>There is no interference from unmeasured variables. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which approach provides higher internal validity but sacrifices external validity due to requiring very similar cases?

<p>Similar cases (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

In a natural experiment, what is a critical characteristic that enhances internal validity?

<p>Randomization of causes among different cases (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is a main drawback of using difference in difference as a causal inference method?

<p>It assumes parallel trends across cases without the effect. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which method is noted for having low external validity due to cases with randomized causes being rare?

<p>Natural experiment (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What factor limits the external validity of the same case over time approach?

<p>Results may not generalize to all cases (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is a notable limitation of the adjustment approach in causal inference?

<p>It requires numerous assumptions that can compromise internal validity. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which causal inference approach minimizes assumptions about confounding variables while maintaining low external validity?

<p>Natural experiment (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What differentiates sampling error from measurement error?

<p>Sampling error arises when the cases studied differ from the population of interest. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What does the fundamental problem of causal inference imply?

<p>The outcomes of cases cannot be fully understood without counterfactual scenarios. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which term refers to the conditions or outcomes a case would experience if the cause were not present?

<p>Counterfactual condition (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which of the following best describes internal validity?

<p>The absence of bias in identifying the causality of X on Y. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

How do internal and external validity relate to each other?

<p>High internal validity can enhance external validity under certain conditions. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What does 'Y - Y' represent in the context of causal inference?

<p>The difference in outcomes when the cause is absent versus when it is present. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which of the following is a factual outcome for a case?

<p>Y when the cause is present. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What does the term 'potential outcomes' signify in causal inference?

<p>The possible outcomes independent of any manipulation. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What does the comparative method predict about cases with the same relevant respects except for value X?

<p>They will vary in value of Y. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is indicated by a p value in the context of statistical significance?

<p>A higher p value indicates that the correlation is likely by chance. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which statement describes spurious correlation?

<p>It can occur due to a confounding variable. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which method involves identifying and measuring all confounding variables?

<p>Adjustment solutions. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What correctly describes the effect of an antecedent variable on variables X and Y?

<p>It affects Y only through X. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the purpose of conditioning in relation to spurious correlation?

<p>To keep other variables constant while analyzing the relationship between X and Y. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which type of correlation is characterized by values of X and Y moving in opposite directions?

<p>Negative correlation. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What do design-based solutions primarily focus on regarding confounding variables?

<p>Choosing comparisons that minimize known and unknown confounding variables. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What defines a strong correlation?

<p>Values for X and Y cluster closely along a defined line. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which of the following is true about randomization as a method for dealing with spurious correlation?

<p>It randomly assigns treatment to eliminate bias. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which of the following best describes a dependent variable?

<p>A variable that captures the outcome of a causal claim. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What does reliability in measurement refer to?

<p>The consistency of results when repeated under the same conditions. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What type of error does measurement bias refer to?

<p>An error that consistently skews measurements in one direction. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which factor does random sampling primarily eliminate?

<p>Systematic bias in the collection of data. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

How can one improve random sampling error?

<p>By increasing the sample size. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What defines upward bias in measurement?

<p>When cases have extraneous features affecting the measurement. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is an example of a ratio variable?

<p>Years since a particular event. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which of the following is true about validity in measurement?

<p>It ensures the measure captures enough of the concept. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What source of error is associated with random sampling?

<p>Random measurement error. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which variable captures the purported cause in a causal claim?

<p>Independent variable. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What distinguishes random measurement error from measurement bias?

<p>Measurement bias reflects systematic deviations across all cases. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Sampling bias occurs when:

<p>The sampling frame does not accurately reflect the population. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

How does upward bias affect measurement results?

<p>It produces values that do not align with true population parameters. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which of the following most accurately defines measurement error?

<p>Weak validity or reliability in measurement. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Flashcards

Variable

A measurable characteristic of something (person, group, event) that can change.

Measure

A way to determine how much of a concept applies to a specific example based on observations.

Dimensions of a Concept

The different parts or aspects of a larger concept that stand alone.

Nominal Measurement

Categorizing objects or observations into groups, without any ranking.

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Ordinal Measurement

Categorizing objects and ranking them – but the distances between categories aren't meaningful.

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Interval Measurement

Numerical measurements with meaningful intervals between values, but no true zero point.

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Concept

Abstract descriptions of characteristics, phenomena, or groups

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Four Levels of Measurement

Nominal, Ordinal, Interval, and Ratio

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Ratio

A numerical value where zero means absence.

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Independent Variable

The variable believed to cause a change in another variable.

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Dependent Variable

The variable that is expected to change due to the independent variable.

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Validity

How well a measurement truly captures the concept it aims to measure.

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Reliability

Consistency of a measurement. Same result when repeated.

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Measurement Error

Inaccurate measurement, stemming from either validity or reliability issues.

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Measurement Bias

Systematic error in measurement, always too high or too low.

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Upward Bias

Measurement consistently overestimates the true value.

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Downward Bias

Measurement consistently underestimates the true value.

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Random Measurement Error

Inconsistent measurement due to random factors.

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Population

The entire group being studied.

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Sample

A smaller part of the population studied.

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Sampling

The process of selecting a sample from a population.

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Random Sampling

Each member of the population has an equal chance of selection.

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Sampling Error

Error in results from the sample not representing the population exactly.

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Adjustment

A method to control for confounding variables by measuring and adjusting them. Similar cases: unchanging variables that differ between cases and changing variables that differ between cases. Same case over time: confounding variables that change over time. Difference in difference: confounding variables that change over time but differ across cases.

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Similar Cases

Controlling for confounding variables by comparing cases with similar characteristics. Assumes no constant/time-invariant differences affect the outcome and no changing/time-variant differences affect the outcome.

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Same Case Over Time

Controlling for confounding variables by comparing the same case over time. Assumes no confounding variables change over time for the case and no confounding variables change over time for other cases.

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Difference in Difference

Controlling for confounding variables by comparing the difference in change between cases with and without the cause. Assumes no confounding variables change over time differently across cases and trends are parallel across cases without the cause.

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Natural Experiment

A situation where the cause is randomly assigned, allowing researchers to isolate the effect of the cause. Requires minimal assumptions about confounding variables.

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Internal Validity

The degree to which a study can confidently claim that the cause led to the effect, controlling for confounding variables.

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External Validity

The degree to which the findings of a study can be generalized to other populations, settings, and times.

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Tradeoff Between Internal and External Validity

Different methods to control for confounding variables have a tradeoff between internal and external validity. Adjustment: high external validity, but at the cost of internal validity. Similar cases: higher internal validity, but lower external validity. Same case over time: high internal validity, but low external validity. Difference in difference: high internal validity, but low external validity. Natural experiment: high internal validity, but low external validity.

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Counterfactual Prediction

A statement about what would have happened if something had been different. It's used to test causal claims.

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Comparative Method

A method that compares two cases that are similar in all relevant respects except for one factor, to see if that factor causes the observed difference.

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Correlation

A statistical relationship between two variables, meaning they change together. It doesn't necessarily mean one causes the other.

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Positive Correlation

When two variables move in the same direction. As one increases, the other also increases.

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Negative Correlation

When two variables move in opposite directions. As one increases, the other decreases.

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Spurious Correlation

A correlation between two variables that appears to be causal, but is actually caused by a third, hidden variable.

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Confounding Variable

A variable that influences both the independent and dependent variable, creating a spurious correlation.

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Intervening Variable

A variable that acts as a mediator between two other variables. It explains how one variable causes another.

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Antecedent Variable

A variable that affects one variable, which then affects another variable. It can lead to spurious correlation.

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Fundamental Problem of Causal Inference

We can never directly observe what would have happened to a case if it had been exposed (or not exposed) to a particular cause. We can only observe its actual outcome.

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Potential Outcomes

The hypothetical outcomes that a case would have had if it had been exposed (or not exposed) to a particular cause.

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Why are counterfactual outcomes from the same sample?

Because we are comparing hypothetical outcomes for the same individuals. We are asking what would have happened to individual A if they had been exposed to the cause, compared to what actually happened to individual A.

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Internal and External Validity Relationship

They're connected. A study with poor internal validity may have trouble achieving good external validity because we may be generalizing from an inaccurate effect.

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Causal Effect for Each Case

The difference between a case's potential outcome if exposed to the cause (Y₁ᵢ) and its potential outcome if not exposed (Y₀ᵢ).

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Study Notes

Concepts

  • An abstract definition for characteristics of or types of phenomena, groups, or individuals.

Variables

  • A measurable property of a phenomenon, group, or person that can take on different values.
  • Derived to capture a concept.
  • Variation across cases or over time.

Measures

  • A procedure for determining the degree to which a concept applies to specific cases based on observations.

Dimensions of a Concept

  • "Sub-concepts"
  • Intrinsic parts/components of a concept that are independent of one another.
  • These components are neither causes nor consequences of the concept.

Four Levels of Measurement

Nominal

  • Categorical in nature.
  • Places cases into discrete groups based on the presence or absence of an attribute.
  • No category is ranked higher or lower than another.
  • Categories are exhaustive.
  • Examples: religion, political affiliation, type of electoral system, occupation.

Ordinal

  • Categorical in nature.
  • Categories are ranked, and may have a numerical value assigned.
  • The intervals between categories are not meaningful.
  • Relative, not absolute.
  • Examples: university rankings, test scores, levels of education, ideology.

Interval

  • Numerical in nature.
  • Intervals between values are meaningful and consistent.
  • Differences in values indicate the magnitude of difference between cases.
  • No meaningful zero point.

Ratio

  • Numerical in nature.
  • Zero is meaningful (absence of something).
  • Examples: years, scores, temperature (Celsius), years since an event.

Independent Variable

  • A variable that captures the purported cause of the causal claim (X).

Dependent Variable

  • A variable that captures the purported outcome of the causal claim (Y).

Validity

  • How well a measurement captures a concept.
  • A variable/measure has validity when it accurately reflects the concept it's meant to capture.
  • Lack of validity may mean the measure captures too much or too little of the concept or captures different things across cases.

Reliability

  • How consistently a measurement procedure produces the same result when repeated for the same case.
  • A reliable measure produces consistent results.
  • Reliability can be affected by researcher interpretation, measurement imprecision, or instability over time.

Measurement Error

  • Refers to weak validity or weak reliability.
  • Two types: systematic measurement error (bias) and random measurement error.

Measurement Bias (Systematic Measurement Error)

  • Error produced when the measurement procedure obtains scores that are, on average, too high or too low.
  • Can be upward (values are consistently too high) or downward (values are consistently too low).

Random Measurement Error

  • Measurement error that derives from random features of the measurement process or phenomenon.
  • Results in values that are too high or too low due to chance.

Sampling

  • A population is the full set of cases.
  • A sample is a subset of the population that is observed and measured.
  • Inferences are the descriptions made about the broader population based on the sample.
  • Random samples provide equal probability of selection for all cases.

Sampling Error

  • Error that arises from the random process of selecting samples.
  • Becomes smaller as the sample size increases.
  • Sampling bias occurs when the sampling frame differs from the population being studied and the sample doesn't represent the population proportionally.

Measurement Error vs. Sampling Error

  • Measurement error occurs when the way cases are observed in the study doesn't accurately describe the broader world.
  • Sampling error occurs when the cases studied differ from the population the study seeks to understand.

Fundamental Problem of Causal Inference

  • The inability to observe the counterfactual (what would have happened if the causal variable had taken a different value for a given case).

Correlation

  • Empirical prediction of a causal claim that correlation tests: If X→ Y (or X causes Y), then X and Y will be correlated.
  • Negative correlation: X and Y values move in opposite directions.
  • Positive correlation: X and Y values move in the same direction.
  • Strong correlation: values closely cluster around the line.
  • Weak correlation: values are not closely clustered.

Spurious Correlation

  • When two variables appear correlated but the correlation is not a result of a causal relationship.
  • Often due to a confounding variable that affects both variables.

Solutions to Spurious Correlation

  • Adjustment, similar/same cases over time, difference-in-differences, natural experiments.
  • Each approach attempts to control for the effects of confounding variables to determine if a correlation is spurious or causal.

Internal validity

  • Degree to which a study accurately measures the causal relationship within the context of the study.

External Validity

  • Degree to which the study's causal relationship can be generalized beyond the specific context of the study.

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