Valuation Introduction PDF

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Aswath Damodaran

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valuation finance business valuation investment decisions

Summary

This document introduces different approaches to valuation, including intrinsic, relative, and contingent claim valuation. It also details the philosophical basis and information needed for each approach.

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Aswath Damodaran 1 SESSION  1:  AN  INTRODUCTION   TO  VALUATION   Aswath  Damodaran   Some  Ini=al  Thoughts   2 ¨ "  One  hundred  thousand  lemmings  cannot  be  wrong"    Graffi=   We thought we were...

Aswath Damodaran 1 SESSION  1:  AN  INTRODUCTION   TO  VALUATION   Aswath  Damodaran   Some  Ini=al  Thoughts   2 ¨ "  One  hundred  thousand  lemmings  cannot  be  wrong"    Graffi=   We thought we were in the top of the eighth inning, when we were in the bottom of the ninth.. Stanley Druckenmiller 2 Misconcep=ons  about  Valua=on   3 ¨ Myth  1:  A  valua=on  is  an  objec=ve  search  for  “true”  value   ¤ Truth  1.1:  All  valua=ons  are  biased.  The  only  ques=ons  are  how  much  and   in  which  direc=on.   ¤ Truth  1.2:  The  direc=on  and  magnitude  of  the  bias  in  your  valua=on    is   directly  propor=onal  to  who  pays  you  and  how  much  you  are  paid.   ¨ Myth  2.:  A  good  valua=on  provides  a  precise  es=mate  of  value   ¤ Truth  2.1:  There  are  no  precise  valua=ons.     ¤ Truth  2.2:  The  payoff  to  valua=on  is  greatest  when  valua=on  is  least   precise.   ¨ Myth  3:  .  The  more  quan=ta=ve  a  model,  the  beRer  the  valua=on   ¤ Truth  3.1:  One’s  understanding  of  a  valua=on  model    is  inversely   propor=onal  to  the  number  of  inputs  required  for  the  model.   ¤ Truth  3.2:  Simpler  valua=on  models  do  much  beRer  than  complex  ones.   Aswath Damodaran 3 Approaches  to  Valua=on   4 ¨ Intrinsic  valua=on,  relates  the  value  of  an  asset  to  its  intrinsic   characteris=cs:  its  capacity  to  generate  cash  flows  and  the   risk  in  the  cash  flows.  In  it’s  most  common  form,  intrinsic   value  is  computed  with  a  discounted  cash  flow  valua=on,   with  the  value  of  an  asset  being  the  present  value  of   expected  future  cashflows  on  that  asset.     ¨ Rela=ve  valua=on,  es=mates  the  value  of  an  asset  by  looking   at  the  pricing  of  'comparable'  assets  rela=ve  to  a  common   variable  like  earnings,  cashflows,  book  value  or  sales.     ¨ Con=ngent  claim  valua=on,  uses  op=on  pricing  models  to   measure  the  value  of  assets  that  share  op=on  characteris=cs.     Aswath Damodaran 4 Basis  for  all  valua=on  approaches   5 ¨ The  use  of  valua=on  models  in  investment  decisions   (i.e.,  in  decisions  on  which  assets  are  under  valued   and  which  are  over  valued)  are  based  upon     ¤  a  percep=on  that  markets  are  inefficient  and  make   mistakes  in  assessing  value   ¤ an  assump=on  about  how  and  when  these  inefficiencies   will  get  corrected   ¨ In  an  efficient  market,  the  market  price  is  the  best   es=mate  of  value.  The  purpose  of  any  valua=on   model  is  then  the  jus=fica=on  of  this  value.   Aswath Damodaran 5 Discounted  Cash  Flow  Valua=on   6 ¨ What  is  it:  In  discounted  cash  flow  valua=on,  the  value  of  an  asset   is  the  present  value  of  the  expected  cash  flows  on  the  asset.   ¨ Philosophical  Basis:  Every  asset  has  an  intrinsic  value  that  can  be   es=mated,  based  upon  its  characteris=cs  in  terms  of  cash  flows,   growth  and  risk.   ¨ Informa=on  Needed:  To  use  discounted  cash  flow  valua=on,  you   need   ¤ to  es=mate  the  life  of  the  asset   ¤ to  es=mate  the  cash  flows  during  the  life  of  the  asset   ¤ to  es=mate  the  discount  rate  to  apply  to  these  cash  flows  to  get  present   value   ¨ Market  Inefficiency:  Markets  are  assumed  to  make  mistakes  in   pricing  assets  across  =me,  and  are  assumed  to  correct  themselves   over  =me,  as  new  informa=on  comes  out  about  assets.   Aswath Damodaran 6 Rela=ve  Valua=on   7 ¨ What  is  it?:  The  value  of  any  asset  can  be  es=mated  by  looking  at   how  the  market  prices  “similar”  or  ‘comparable”  assets.   ¨ Philosophical  Basis:  The  intrinsic  value  of  an  asset  is  impossible  (or   close  to  impossible)  to  es=mate.  The  value  of  an  asset  is  whatever   the  market  is  willing  to  pay  for  it  (based  upon  its  characteris=cs)   ¨ Informa=on  Needed:  To  do  a  rela=ve  valua=on,  you  need     ¤ an  iden=cal  asset,  or  a  group  of  comparable  or  similar  assets   ¤ a  standardized  measure  of  value  (in  equity,  this  is  obtained  by  dividing  the   price  by  a  common  variable,  such  as  earnings  or  book  value)   ¤ and  if  the  assets  are  not  perfectly  comparable,  variables  to  control  for  the   differences   ¨ Market  Inefficiency:  Pricing  errors  made  across  similar  or   comparable  assets  are  easier  to  spot,  easier  to  exploit  and  are   much  more  quickly  corrected.   Aswath Damodaran 7 Con=ngent  Claim  (Op=on)  Valua=on   8 ¨ What  is  it:  In  con=ngent  claim  valua=on,  you  value  an  asset   with  cash  flows  con=ngent  on  an  event  happening  as  op=ons.     ¨ Philosophical  Basis:  When  you  buy  an  op=on-­‐like  asset,  you   change  your  risk  tradeoff  –  you  have  limited  downside  risk   and  almost  unlimited  upside  risk.  Thus,  risk  becomes  your   ally.   ¨ Informa=on  Needed:  To  use  con=ngent  claim  valua=on,  you   need   ¤ define  the  underlying  asset  on  which  you  have  the  op=on   ¤ a  conven=onal  value  for  your  asset,  using  discounted  cash  flow   valua=on   ¤ the  con=ngency  that  will  trigger  the  cash  flow  on  the  op=on   ¨ Market  Inefficiency:  Investors  who  ignore  the  op=onality  in   op=on-­‐like  assets  will  misprice  them.   Aswath Damodaran 8 Indirect  Examples  of  Op=ons   9 ¨ Equity  in  a  deeply  troubled  firm  -­‐  a  firm  with  nega=ve   earnings  and  high  leverage  -­‐  can  be  viewed  as  an  op=on  to   liquidate  that  is  held  by  the  stockholders  of  the  firm.    Viewed   as  such,  it  is  a  call  op=on  on  the  assets  of  the  firm.   ¨ The  reserves  owned  by  natural  resource  firms  can  be  viewed   as  call  op=ons  on  the  underlying  resource,  since  the  firm  can   decide  whether  and  how  much  of  the  resource  to  extract   from  the  reserve,   ¨ The  patent  owned  by  a  firm  or  an  exclusive  license  issued  to  a   firm  can  be  viewed  as  an  op=on  on  the  underlying  product   (project).  The  firm  owns  this  op=on  for  the  dura=on  of  the   patent.   ¨ The  rights  possessed  by  a  firm  to  expand  an  exis=ng   investment  into    new  markets  or  new  products.   Aswath Damodaran 9 In  summary…   10 ¨ While  there  are  hundreds  of  valua=on  models  and   metrics  around,  there  are  only  three  valua=on   approaches:   ¤ Intrinsic  valua=on  (usually,  but  not  always  a  DCF  valua=on)   ¤ Rela=ve  valua=on     ¤ Con=ngent  claim  valua=on   ¨ The  three  approaches  can  yield  different  es=mates  of   value  for  the  same  asset  at  the  same  point  in  =me.   ¨ To  truly  grasp  valua=on,  you  have  to  be  able  to   understand  and  use  all  three  approaches.  There  is  a  =me   and  a  place  for  each  approach,  and  knowing  when  to  use   each  one  is  a  key  part  of  mastering  valua=on.   Aswath Damodaran 10

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