Politics in Nigeria PDF

dPolitics in Nigeria Current Policy Challenges ​ Nigeria is experiencing the longest period of civilian rule in history ​ Failures of governance and challenges to constitutional authority to keep democracy precarious ​ Divisions have intensified of the years (ethnic, religious, regi...

dPolitics in Nigeria Current Policy Challenges ​ Nigeria is experiencing the longest period of civilian rule in history ​ Failures of governance and challenges to constitutional authority to keep democracy precarious ​ Divisions have intensified of the years (ethnic, religious, regional, etc) ​ Electoral violence, persistent inequalities, recent rebellions, and failures of government performance all contribute to popular skepticism about democracy. ​ Transition to democracy came in 1999- the election of Olusegun Obansjo as a president, and a new democratic legislature weeks later ​ Umaru Musa Yar’Adua was elected in 2007 after a failed attempt by Obansajo’s supporters to change the constitution to extend his stay in office ​ Constitution faced a fresh test when Yar’Adua became ill and disappeared from the public view (2009)- National Assembly appointed the vice president- lacked constitutional authority ​ Yar’Adua passed away in 2021, and Vice President Goodluck Jonathan was sworn in as president- Nigeria survived another test ​ The switch from Yar’Auda and Jonathan was controversial because power went from a norther Muslim to a Southern Christian, violating an informal power rotation arrangement between the north and south, reigniting the north-south dichotomy in Nigerian Politics ​ When Jonathan won presidency, many people died as a result of violence, and northerners were angry that the ruling party did not keep the presidency within the north ​ Nigeria= frustrated with the failure of democracy to harness their countries wealth to provide basic needs, education, potable water, reliable roads, public safety, etc ​ power= declined since 1999- creates difficult and expensive climates for investments ​ Income in Nigeria is barely 1/10th of the United States ​ Frustration with democracy is present in rampant public sector corruption and the terrorism of Boko Haram, violent extremists based in the NE ​ Muhammadu Buhari- a former military dictator, rekindled hope that corruption and a military offensive against Boko Haram can be prosecuted with military precision ​ Violent activities of Boko Haram sparked public outrage/ condemnation of the PDP-led government within and outside the concentration ​ With Buhari’s election, the military leadership was replaced by the new gov and liberated most territories held by Boko Haram ​ Buhari’s administration was not good at responding to the humanitarian crisis ​ More than 4 million people faced food shortages, 65,000 were living in famine like conditions ( according to UNICEF) Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) are w/o gov support due to inefficiencies and embezzlement ​ Boko Haram's rise in violence: Began in 2009 with attacks targeting churches, police stations, and schools, especially in northeast Nigeria. ​ Origins of Boko Haram: Formed in 2002 as a religious group in Maiduguri, led by Mohammed Yusuf. ​ Key incidents: Mohammed Yusuf's capture and execution in 2009 escalated violence, leading to radicalization. The 2014 kidnapping of nearly 300 girls in Chibok is one of the  By next century, mosques and koranic schools started to flourish, hausa princes rivaled the moroccan and ottoman empires in their political influence and economical reach ​ Fulani: people with origins in western sudan who entered the hausa lands as herders, teachers, and traders, and eventually court advisers ​ Usman dan Fodio, inspired a religious and political revolt against the Hausa kings.- preacher and scholargroup's most infamous acts. ​ Impact of violence: Since 2011, at least 26,000 people have been killed, with attacks on government buildings, schools, and places of worship. ​ Evolution: Initially a small sect, Boko Haram became known for its harsh tactics, including bombings and kidnappings. Its extremist ideology supports Islamic law, which resonates with some northern Nigerians but is widely rejected. ​ Government efforts: Attacks have decreased since President Buhari took office in 2015, but Boko Haram remains active. Millions of displaced people are still afraid to return home due to safety concerns. ​ Corruption and security issues: Ongoing corruption investigations and slow efforts at rebuilding conflict-affected areas are major challenges. ​ Regional and political tensions: Rising secessionist movements in the south and ethnic conflicts in the east, notably among the Igbos, reflect ongoing political instability. The effects of history- 557 ​ Concept of Nigeria: 1914, the name and boundaries were imposed by colonial flat The Enduring Effects of Precolonial Events ​ Images of precolonial africa=prejudice, misunderstanding, ignorance ​ The hausa people began forming city states in northern nigeria from 1000 to 1200 ce, came under the influence of the islam by 15th century ​ ​ Fulani dominated caliphate was established in sokoto, now known as northern nigeria ​ Sokoto- muslim religious capital of nigeria ​ With intermarriage, the hausa and fulani cultures have became intertwined.with Hausa the primary language of both, that the dominant culture of the north is usually referred to as Hausa-Fulani ​ Descendents of the rulers of hausa-falani kingdoms are the Islamic title emir, continue to hold court in the major cities of northern Nigeria. ​ yoruba / bini people formed kingdoms in oyo, ife, and benin between 12th-15th centuries. ​. In the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries, the kingdom of Oyo subdued its rivals and extended its control over the entire southwestern part of Nigeria. ​ Political systems developed intricate systems to limit the power of their rulers ​ The political system is conciliar and competitive ​ Ability is what qualifies a leader, not age ​ Yoruba + igbo display that accountability and limited gov come in different ways ​ Why did the british domination occur? ​ Britain’s interest in west africa was trade, first intentional trade of importance was slaves ​ 19th century- central groups were trading captive for goods w/ European trading ships  ​ Wars among the various kingdoms ensured a plentiful supply of captives, particularly in southwestern Nigeria. For the next 300 years, this trade was sustained: Benin, Lagos, Bonny, and Calabar thrived as slave trade centers, exporting upward of 20,000 persons per year to the Americas. ​ British Parliament outlawed slave trade: 1807 ​ Slave trade completely eliminated in 1850, british navy had to patrol and cut off slave ships ​ Slave trading patterns were transported to other goods ​ British consuls settled along the coast and began influencing local politics. ​ They supported political candidates who would provide commercial advantages over rival European traders. ​ The British negotiated treaties of protection and trade with local rulers along the coast. ​ These treaties were unequal, increasingly favoring British interests. ​ The British gradually established first commercial, and then political, control in the regionl The colonional interlude (558-560) ​ The industrial revolution in Europe intesified demand for raw material and the search of new markets. ​ European powers met at the conference of berlin in 1884, 1885 and divided africa into spheres or influence to avoid war resulting from the competitions of colonies ​ European powers seized control over the continent instead of trading with rulers/merchants- efforts were successful through imperial wars, conquest, and negotiations ​ By the beginning of ww1 in 1914, africa had clearly drawn lines that showed where europeans took control ​ 1886: The royal niger company was granted a royal charter to control nigerian trade ​ Charter was replaced in 1990, creation of the colony of lagos and protectorates of northern and southern nigeria. ​ “Nigeria” was coined by an english woman who married Sir Frederick Lugard, the architect of colonial Nigeria Natural environment ​ Cultures affected by climate + ecology, as people adopt differently grasslands, grassland, desserts, ​ West Africa’s cultures are shaped by distinct climate and ecological zones, which run east to west. ​ European colonial expansion started from the coast of the Gulf of Guinea and moved inland. ​ Colonial borders were drawn northward, cutting across various ecological and cultural zones. ​ This created colonies with diverse and often vastly different cultural groups. ​ Colonial boundaries ignored traditional ecological and cultural divisions, leading to long-term challenges for governance and social cohesion in post-colonial West Africa. ​ In 1914: Nigeria became an entity, Northern and Southern protectorates plus lagos were under a single colonial administration ​ Unifying action= largely symbolic, but they governed separately ​ Northern + southern provinces replaced the protectorates ​ Northern + southern developed at different paces ​ Lord Lugard indirect rule: British colonial administration would not interfere with the daily lives of people in its colonies ​ British would back the rule of the local leaders, such as the fulani emirs to maintain control and order ​ Lugard believed his method was efficient for managing colonies and promoting self-sufficient economies- aimed to reduce the financial burden of colonialism on the British gov ​ Christian missionaries were prohibited from spreading their religion in northern nigeria (predominantly muslim) in efforts to avoid conflict ​ In southern Nigeria, western educated elites challenged the authority of rulers where they existed, complicating the strategy of the indirect rule ​ In southeastern nigeria, there were not official kings and chiefs ​ Results that were comical and tragic occured when attemps to create village chiefs in a place that is not practiced occurs ​ Results of different traditions= differentiated political experiences with the indirect rule in different regions ​ Conversion of peasant societies from subsistence to a market orientation eroded the foundations of traditional rule. ​ In the north, chiefs and kings did not have the authority to collect taxes ​ Development of modern systems of communication and transportation= necessary to stimulate commerce and encouraged people to move to different parts of the country, ​ Immigrants and urbanized population scarcely showed deference (respect/politness) to leaders, and did not see a good reason to pay taxes ​ Along with commerce, British leaders bought missionaries, catholics, baptists, presbyterians, anglicans, etc ​ Attempting to convert someone to Christianity was understood as unpermitted- created regional equities and missionaries were only established in schools and hospitals in South Nigeria ​ As Nigerians learned English, they established tools to challenge colonial rule ​ North and south are divided on religious lines, and socioeconomic differences can be attributed to colonial origins ​ Modern constitutional development in Nigeria began a few years after Nigeria was formed as a single colony. ​ In 1922, elective office was introduced for the first time. ​ Early nationalist leader Herbert Macaulay soon formed a political party. ​ As Nigerian political life grew, especially among the educated, more organizations emerged. ​ The British colonial government faced increasing demands for Nigerian participation in governance. ​ Constitutions introduced by governors were often seen as outdated by Nigerian political activists. ​ Southern politicians viewed these constitutions as conservative, while Northern elites saw them as radical. ​ These differences led to the creation of a federal system in 1954, dividing Nigeria into three regions:  ​ Northern Region (dominated by the Hausa-Fulani), ​ Eastern Region (dominated by the Igbo), ​ Western Region (dominated by the Yoruba). ​ The Eastern and Western regions achieved self-government in 1957. ​ The Northern Region became self-governing in 1959, just before Nigeria's national independence. Nigerian Independence ​ Independent nigeria: October 1st, 1960- conflict tore up the region about 2 years later in the coalition in the western region ​ 1965: law and order collapsed in the western region due to violence and election fraud ​ The collapse led to a military coup in in Jan 1966, ending Nigeria’s first republic ​ Military dictatorships posed further challenges to democracy Environmental and Demographic Constraints on Development ​ 1999-2014= good economic strides for Nigeria, GDP went up ​ Purchase Power Parity (PPP): controls for differences in currency values between countries- accurate comparison of purchasing powers for different countries ​ GDP growth since the 2000s allowed the country to navigate through the recession well, and validated claims that democracy can deliver economically ​ 2014 economic drop (568 billion to 481 naira) displays the economic hardships faced in Nigeria ​ Decline in oil= shock to economy, limited policy options ​ Postive macroeconomics did not benefit citizens and poverty increased, economic growth/expansion did not mean better living in Nigeria Conditions Affecting Agricultural Production and the Sale of Primary Commodities ​ Cocoa, palm oil, peanuts, timber, rubber- produced by Nigeria ​ Cattle, hides, skins, cotton- products in the north ​ Nigeria became dependent on the export of a small number of agricultural commodities, rather than creating finished goods profitable for domestic industry. ​ British interest in nigeria was primarily commercial ​ United Africa Company (UAC)- granted a charter in Royal Niger company in 1886- given police, judical power, authorize taxes, and oversee commerce- made policies that aimed to align with Britain’s needs ​ Public opinion in Britain never strongly supported creating a colonial empire, and many in Parliament wanted to minimize the costs of the empire. ​ Colonial administrations were pressured to be self-sufficient, generating their own revenue for administration, colonial administrators pushed peasant farmers toward commercial farming, especially for export crops. ​ In Nigeria, key export crops were palm oil, cocoa, peanuts, and cotton, which distorted the economy. ​ Nigeria became dependent on exporting raw agricultural products rather than producing finished goods for domestic industries. ​ Population growth and the commercialization of agriculture strained traditional farming techniques and the environment. ​ Colonial officials mistakenly believed that "modern" farming methods from temperate regions would easily work in tropical climates, which proved untrue.  ​ Nigeria's diverse environment helped expand agricultural production, but the focus remained on export crops to generate foreign exchange. ​ Agriculture was seen as a source of savings for investment in industrialization, leading to neglect in supporting farmers. ​ The Central Produce Marketing Board, a government agency, accumulated reserves by paying farmers less than the export earnings. ​ For a decade, Nigeria relied heavily on exploiting its farmers, using agricultural price controls to balance the budget. ​ Low agricultural prices led to less interest in farming and increased migration to cities for better opportunities. Disease ​ Higher disease rates in lower nations is due to lack of resources, medicine, etc ​ AIDs percentages in Africa is high, 3.7% of all Nigerians between 15-49 are infected in 2013 ​ Mid 2000s, Obensajos administration was committed to fighting HIV, and brought it down to barely 3% ​ Polio is present ​ HIV/AIDS slows down national and agricultural productivity Population Growth ​ 44% of population is less than 15 ​ children= valuable resource in labor intensive agricultural societies ​ In agricultural societies with high infant mortality and no social security, having many children is seen as essential for future support in old age. At the societal level, this contributes to overpopulation and survival challenges. ​ In 2014, Nigeria’s life expectancy was 53 years, lower than some poorer neighboring countries like Benin. ​ By 2050, Nigeria is projected to have a larger population than the U.S., based on current growth trends. ​ Nigeria’s population grew at an average rate of 2.9% annually between 1975 and 2000. ​ Despite a 6.6% economic growth rate since 2000, rapid population growth reduces per capita economic gains to just 4%. ​ Rapid population growth and urbanization have turned children from economic assets into liabilities, increasing the "dependency ratio." ​ The rising dependency ratio puts pressure on Nigeria's limited social welfare and education systems. ​ Population counting in Nigeria has been controversial, with implications for resource distribution and political representation. ​ The last widely accepted census was in 1963, and protests followed the 2006 census. ​ Accurate population figures are crucial for long-term policy planning, but the absence of reliable data complicates this. Urbanization ​ Primarily rural, but urbanizing rapidly, 48% live in urban areas ​ Factors of migration: employment, public services, terrorist/militants violence, floods, etc ​ Lagos: Largest city in Nigeria, located in Lagos state  ​ Lagos State reversed years of economic decline by increasing tax enforcement, attracting foreign investment, and improving infrastructure. ​ Before President Buhari's 2015 election, Lagos was one of the few states governed by an opposition party, raising questions about whether its good governance was linked to its political position. ​ Observers wondered if Lagos' performance would inspire improvements in other states. ​ Urbanization has reduced the labor force available for agriculture, which is a typical pattern in modernization but can lower food production unless agricultural productivity improves. ​ Urbanization also has political implications, as dense populations are more conducive to political organizing and protest. ​ The capital city of Abuja was created by the military partly to avoid the political unrest associated with the large population of Lagos. Petroleum ​ Nigeria is a rentier state, significantly reliant on oil revenue ​ Nigeria's petroleum reserves became evident in the 1950s, with the first crude oil exported in 1958. ​ Initially, the federal government collected royalties from Western oil companies, but in 1971, Nigeria joined OPEC and created a state entity to participate in oil production. ​ The government soon acquired a majority interest in oil production, benefiting from rising oil prices in the 1970s. ​ Oil exports became the primary source of federal, state, and local government revenues, replacing agriculture. ​ The 1967-1970 civil war halted oil exports, but post-war oil production surged, distorting the economy. ​ Young workers left agriculture for cities and oil fields as oil replaced agriculture as Nigeria's main export. ​ By the 1970s, Nigeria's economy became less diversified and more vulnerable to fluctuations in oil prices. ​ Two peaks in oil revenue have marked Nigeria's fiscal history: the first in 1979, followed by a decline, forcing austerity measures in the 1980s. ​ Today, oil accounts for about 90% of export earnings. ​ Rising oil prices in the 2000s, particularly due to the Iraq War, helped Nigeria pay down foreign debt and spurred economic diversification. ​ The service sector grew, driven by trade and communications, suggesting Nigeria might overcome the "resource curse." ​ However, the 2014 oil price collapse and subsequent recession highlighted ongoing challenges to sustainable development. The Geographic Distribution of Natural Resources: Political Effects ​ Nigeria's petroleum reserves became evident in the 1950s, with the first crude oil exported in 1958. ​ Initially, the federal government collected royalties from Western oil companies, but in 1971, Nigeria joined OPEC and created a state entity to participate in oil production. ​ The government soon acquired a majority interest in oil production, benefiting from rising oil prices in the 1970s.  ​ Oil exports became the primary source of federal, state, and local government revenues, replacing agriculture. ​ The 1967-1970 civil war halted oil exports, but post-war oil production surged, distorting the economy. ​ Young workers left agriculture for cities and oil fields as oil replaced agriculture as Nigeria's main export. ​ By the 1970s, Nigeria's economy became less diversified and more vulnerable to fluctuations in oil prices. ​ Two peaks in oil revenue have marked Nigeria's fiscal history: the first in 1979, followed by a decline, forcing austerity measures in the 1980s. ​ Today, oil accounts for about 90% of export earnings. ​ Rising oil prices in the 2000s, particularly due to the Iraq War, helped Nigeria pay down foreign debt and spurred economic diversification. ​ The service sector grew, driven by trade and communications, suggesting Nigeria might overcome the "resource curse." ​ However, the 2014 oil price collapse and subsequent recession highlighted ongoing challenges to sustainable development. International environment ​ the Cold War. ​ During the Cold War, newly independent nations were pressured to align with either the West or the East. ​ Both sides provided foreign aid to developing countries as a reward for their loyalty. ​ At independence, Nigeria was viewed as conservative and aligned with the "pro-Western" camp ​ Nigerian intellectuals equated capitalism with colonialism, They argued that even after independence, neocolonial economic ties allowed the West to maintain control over Nigeria's economy. ​ During the first 30 years of independence, political discourse was based on the ideological poles of capitalism, socialism, and relationships w/ major powers involved staking a position between the two camps ​ In the Nigerian Civil War (1967–1970), the Soviet Union supported the federal government, while the U.S. remained officially neutral, though many Americans supported Biafra. ​ Economic interests drove Nigeria's alignment with the West, as Western countries had the technology to extract and market Nigeria's oil. ​ After the Cold War, Western countries shifted focus to democratization, reducing support for dictatorships in Africa. ​ As global interest in Africa decreased, new economic players like Brazil, India, and China began investing in African resources. ​ Nigeria, like many Third-World countries, faced massive international debt after the 1973 oil crisis, leading to economic struggles in the 1980s. ​ By 2006, Nigeria became the first African nation to pay off its Paris Club debt, but heavy borrowing resumed in the following years due to slow economic growth and low oil prices. ​ Nigeria has emerged as a regional leader in West Africa, involved in peacekeeping and regional organizations like the African Union.  ​ The rise of Boko Haram since 2009 has raised concerns about violent extremism in the region, especially following the influx of weapons after the fall of Libyan dictator Muammar Gaddafi in 2011. ​ The Nigerian government is focused on counterterrorism, though its military tactics are criticized by human rights advocate Political culture and subcultures ​ Political culture is extremely heterogeneous (diverse) and complex ​ Analyzing Nigeria requires considering the influence of Western values layered over its diverse precolonial traditions. ​ The analysis must also consider the impact of multiple religious beliefs, including the ongoing effects of Christian and Muslim proselytizing. ​ Since the colonial period, new divisions have emerged based on social class and the differing experiences of urban and rural populations. ​ Key factors to focus on include the political implications of: ​ Ethnic identity ​ Religious beliefs ​ Social and economic status ​ Urban life experiences ​ The role of civil society Ethnic identity ​ Nigerians can be easily identified by language and cultural traits ​ 3 largest groups: Hausa, Igbo, and Yoruba ​ Since Nigeria tends to be geographically separated, people can figure out people’s origins by the way they dress, dialect, tribal marks, etc ​ Ethnic and tribal identities make geographic mobility slow, stigmatized, and sometimes dangerous. ​ These identities have created a "settlers–indigenes" divide (migrants vs. inhabitants), leading to communal, ethnic, and religious conflicts and violence across Nigeria. ​ Differences in wealth and political awareness further contribute to tensions. Hausa Fulani: ​ Live mostly in the northern half of nigeria ​ Hausaland: strattles the border to then north between Nigeria and Niger, a former french colony, and the people living in these places maintain commercial and cultural ties ​ A larger proportion of Hausas engage in subsistence farming and live in rural areas compared to southern Nigerians. ​ Many Hausas live in cities across Nigeria, involved in trade, while maintaining ties to their home region. ​ The majority of Hausas are Muslim, and their homeland is organized into emirates. ​ Emirs, traditional rulers in northern Nigeria, were key to British indirect rule during the colonial era.  ​ While emirs have no official role in modern Nigeria, they still hold significant influence locally and, through Hausa prominence, at the national level. ​ The emirs' unofficial role is a subject of controversy, even in the north. Igbo: ​ Occupy most of the southeastern part of the country ​ Mostly developed for market agriculture (producing palm products, rice, yams, etc) ​ Known for the fervor- which they adopted western culture ​ Known for embracing Western culture, particularly education and Christianity. ​ Despite the harsh effects of colonialism (as seen in Things Fall Apart), they eagerly adopted Western skills, which led to success in commerce and civil service. ​ Igbos migrated widely throughout Nigeria and did not emphasize maintaining separate communities in non-Igbo regions. ​ Many Igbos were targeted during the 1966 coup and the civil war (Biafra secession), causing mistrust between Igbos and other Nigerians. ​ Post-war, Igbos regained prominence in commerce but faced barriers in government roles outside their home region. Yoruba People: ​ Mainly located in southwestern Nigeria, with significant presence in Lagos. ​ Historically farmers, they grew cocoa and palm products during the colonial period. ​ Yoruba were divided into independent, warring kingdoms, and have distinct identities despite sharing a common language and traditions. ​ British colonial rule disrupted traditional power balances, causing obas (Yoruba kings) to become autocratic, reducing their legitimacy. ​ Today, the influence of obas in politics varies, generally less than northern emirs. ​ Yoruba society is seen as between the stratified Hausa and the egalitarian Igbo, leading to mistrust from other ethnic groups. Ethnic Tensions: ​ Ethnic identities and rivalries, often rooted in precolonial conflicts and refreshed by economic competition, are a major source of conflict in Nigeria. ​ Nationalism can unify or fragment the country, especially when ethnic groups assert their identities strongly. ​ Discrimination against "non-indigenes" (people who have migrated to a different state) causes tensions and violence. ​ Local ethnic conflicts, like the Ife and Modakeke in Osun State, can affect policy, infrastructure, and government planning, leading to inefficient resource use Here are the key points from the passage: ​ Religious Influence:  ○​ Before Christianity and Islam, traditional religious institutions were prominent, especially among the Yoruba. ○​ Christian missionaries brought education to the southern regions, and different Christian denominations are now geographically concentrated. For example, Roman Catholics are more common among the Igbo, Baptists among the Yoruba, and the Evangelical Church of West Africa is strong in north-central Nigeria. ○​ A significant proportion of Yoruba—around half—are Muslim. The north remains predominantly Muslim, with restricted missionary activity during colonial times creating an education gap between the north and south. ​ Religious Tensions: ○​ Religion exacerbates ethnic and regional divisions, with the north-south divide reflecting both religious and educational disparities. ○​ The rise of fundamentalist movements on both sides (Christian and Muslim) has worsened tensions. Examples include the Maitatsine movement in the 1980s, leading to deadly riots, and the 2002 Miss World incident that triggered violence between Christians and Muslims. ○​ From 2006 to 2014, over 11,000 people died in religious violence, with Boko Haram attacks contributing significantly to this toll. ​ Recent Religious Violence: ○​ A notable incident in 2015 saw the Nigerian Army kill hundreds of members of the Islamic Movement of Nigeria (IMN), a minority Shi'ite group, after an altercation in Zaria, Kaduna. This has caused tensions with Iran and increased friction in northern Nigeria. ​ Religious Associations: ○​ A large percentage of Nigerians are active in religious groups. Support for Islamic law (Sharia) is particularly strong in the north, though opinions on its implementation vary. ​ Democratic Challenges: ○​ The return to democracy has heightened religious and regional identities. A core issue for Nigeria is balancing these regional and religious divisions with national unity, especially in managing the state's relationship with religion. Evolution of Nigerian Nationalism ​ 3 major sources of nationalist sentiment ○​ 1) a small number of freed slaves from North America and others from African descent who settled on the West African coast and developed a culture related to any of those in an indigenous country ○​ 2) nationalist fervor grew out of experiences of Nigerians who fought for the British in WW2 and were frustrated at the lack of recognition for their services ○​ 3) consisted of nigerians who studied in england or in the united states, including nnamdi azikiwe ​ Any study of political culture must acknowledge citizens orientations toward the federal government ​ Those more inclined towards public political activities tend to have more acess to formal education and economy ​ People in rural areas might be less engaged in issues of general political concern  ​ Low rates of literacy and lack of education may deter people from participating in public affairs ​ Sure! Here are the key points in simple bullet form: ​ Citizens in Nigeria often handle political concerns through personal connections. ​ This practice is typically part of a clientelist arrangement. ​ Individuals seek help from politically influential figures. ​ Citizens expect to "pay" for assistance through: ○​ Long-term relationships ○​ Payment in-kind (e.g., bribes) ○​ Voting when asked, even if they are not interested in politics. ​ This system reinforces personal loyalty over broader political engagement. Democratic Norms and Values To assess Nigeria's prospects for sustaining political democracy, we must examine supporting norms. Legitimacy of opposition is crucial, which includes: ​ Tolerance for criticism ​ Acceptance of opposition and competition Nigeria's political history shows issues with opposition treatment, including: ​ Armed thugs disrupting meetings ​ Government harassment of opponents ​ Incumbents using power for unfair advantages Since the military's exit in 1999, the percentage of Nigerians identifying the country as democratic has decreased (42%). Strong support for democratic governance exists: ​ In 2008, 72% of Nigerians believed "democracy is preferable to any other form of government." There is a significant gap between demand for democracy and actual democratic performance. Disillusionment with government performance is high: ​ In 2016, 65% supported democracy, but only 29% were satisfied with its current state. ​ 74% of Nigerians feel the country is headed in the wrong direction. This gap is linked to issues like corruption, poverty, unemployment, and insecurity, which affect the quality of life for many Nigerians. The political role of women  ​ The political roles of women varies because of ethnic differences ​ Nigeria women had considerable control over their own affairs in dual- sex systems ​ Parallel systems of political and socialization for men and women ​ Women lost most of their autonomy under colonialism, because british customs gave women less control over their affairs ​ Womens social movements were still important to decolonization ​ In north Nigeria, Islamic customs restrict the role of women in society ​ Hausa women generally had more freedom than others in the middle easter (local production and trade roles, but were not allowed to be politically active ​ 1979 is when women in Northern Nigeria voted for the first time ​ Women in political leadership is low compared to other African countries ​ Women and men vote equally, but there are less leadership roles for women in politics ​ 2007- 26 women were brought to the 360- seat House of Representatives and 9 women/109 seats to the senate. After 2011, these numbers declined and only slightly improved in 2015 ​ Men hold the majority of seats, almost 90% of elected and appointed govs Political Corruption ​ Pervasive corruption= problem since the late colonia area ​ Police asking for bribes and civil servants demanding expidition fees ​ Unprecedented forms of corruption occured when oil revenues filled the federal treasuries in the 1970s. ​ Coup against yakuba guwon in 1975 was a result, and the assisination of general murtala muhammad in 1976 ​ Sabi abacha channeled large sums of money from petroleum revenue accounts into private accounts, in efforts to promote transparency in gov and fight corruption- Obasanjo administration recovered 2 billion from the Abacha family ​ 2002- Economic and Financial Crimes Commision (EFCC) Establish act was passed by the National Assembly ​ Purpose of act: to prevent, investigate, prosecute, and penalize economic and financial crimes. ​ Crimes within jurisdiction: money laundering, internet fraud, bank fraud, bribery, and misuse of public funds ​ EFCC accused of selective prosecution of president’s political enimies During President Yar'Adua's tenure, anticorruption efforts slowed significantly: ​ EFCC prosecutions nearly stopped. ​ The U.S. suspended some technical assistance due to concerns about EFCC's integrity. Few high-level corruption convictions have occurred: ​ Exception: Former governor James Ibori was convicted in Britain after escaping custody in Nigeria. Corruption involves external actors too:  ​ In 2010, Halliburton (American oil contractor) paid $35 million for improper payments to Nigerian officials. Under President Goodluck Jonathan, corruption prosecutions remained limited: ​ Notable case: Farouk Lawan exposed fuel subsidy corruption but was accused of accepting bribes and never prosecuted. Under President Buhari (from 2015), two major corruption cases gained national attention: ​ $2.1 billion for military equipment allegedly diverted by the National Security Adviser’s office. ​ Senate President accused of false asset declarations. These cases improved Nigeria’s international reputation: ​ Nigeria joined the Open Government Partnership (OGP) in 2016, signaling a commitment to transparency and accountable governance. Political Socialization ​ Nigerians develop political beliefs through family, religious organization, primary and secondary groups, schools, media, government sponsored activities ​ Massive urbanization and influxes of oil revenue shape socialization ​ Families are impacted by poverty, displacement, deprivation ​ Quality of schools declines, mass media enjoys limited freedom and independence- making socialization difficult The FAMILY ​ Families are identified with a particular trade or role in society ​ Many grow up in polygamous families, no law prevents a man from having more than one wife- but are limited to 4 ​ Monogamy is enforced in Christian men who hold office in church Polygamous households and broader family definitions give kinship a special political role in Nigeria. ​ Politicians may gain support from hundreds of kin or larger groups through clan affiliations, even without clear genealogical ties. Kinship is central to identity and loyalty in Nigeria and serves as the basis for many clientelist relationships. The Boko Haram insurgency has impacted families in several ways: ​ Violence in the northeast has broken up thousands of families, weakening a key socializing unit.  ​ Deaths and conscription of men have increased the burden on women, who must support large families. ​ Displaced families avoid refugee camps and seek help from extended families or friends, overburdening those households. ​ Despite the strain, many stories of generosity have emerged, with people taking in strangers. Schools ​ Play a central role in developing a sense of community ​ One of the principle benefits that nigerians expect from the government ​ Nigeria has struggled to make the curriculum available and shaping it ​ One university in 1948 to 1962. ​ 1970s- the oil boom created a massage was of secondary and postsecondary schools, but there was a lack of trained professors ​ 141 universities today- rapid expansion opened up corruption opportunities ​ Enrollment rates doubled every 4-5 years in 1960-1980. ​ With increase in enrollment, 4.7 primary children still are not in school ​ Attendance rates are among the worst in the world ​ Children of the elite have a disproportionate share of enrollments and reflective of gender disparity ​ 2005-2010, enrollment of girls declined from 65 to 54 in primary, but increased from 31-41 percent of all students The Mass media ​ Presence of politically and lively independent press goes back to azikiwe’s west african pilot, and competing newspapers existed by the time of independence ​ Authoritarian restrictions: Between 1966 and 1999, military regimes imposed 21 decrees that restricted press freedoms, including banning publications and arresting journalists. ​ Harassment of journalists: Many journalists faced harassment, arrest, or even death, such as a letter bomb killing a critic in 1986. Press freedom remains under threat today, with journalists often harassed or attacked. ​ Media consumption: In 2015, 24% of Nigerians read newspapers regularly, but radio and television were more dominant sources of news. 70% get news from TV, while social media and smartphones are growing rapidly as major sources of information. ​ Constitutional protections: The 1999 Constitution guaranteed more press freedoms, reversing some military-era restrictions. However, journalists can still face punishment for defaming officials, and must be accredited by a government-run media council. ​ Risks to journalists: Despite legal protections, journalists face serious risks, including death. Boko Haram killed one reporter in 2011, and several others were killed during riots in 2010. Some journalists and bloggers have been forced to flee for safety. The State ​ In the federal system, direct contact comes largely through local officials  ​ Government is remote and must be approached through informal mediation ​ Those with formal education can contact the local gov simple ​ Cynicism: a general distrust of the motives of others, believing that people are dishonest, selfish, etc ​ Nigerians express cynicism about the motivations of policy makers, and the role of oil in the economy highly shaped the attitudes about top policy makers ​ Petroleum profits: Revenue from petroleum sales flows through the central government, making access to federal power highly valuable. ​ High stakes for elites: Elites have a strong incentive to secure privileged access to public resources or control them by obtaining political office. ​ Dominance of seasoned elites: As a result, experienced politicians and powerful elites tend to dominate Nigeria's political landscape, maintaining control over resources and influence. Political Recruitment Balance of power expectation: There is an informal expectation that Nigeria’s political leadership should alternate between the north and south, although this has not always been reflected in government composition. Military and civil service dynamics: ​ During the decolonization era, northerners dominated the military officer corps, while southerners were more represented in education and civil service. ​ The Balewa government recruited educated Igbos into the military, which led to the army’s politicization. Military influence on politics: ​ Early military leaders, like General Gowon, did not view military rule as a long-term career path. ​ However, by the 1980s and 1990s, military careers became seen as routes to political power. Shift after 1999: Post-1999, retired military officials remained politically active, particularly with the PDP (People’s Democratic Party), but education and civil service careers also became routes to influence. Discrimination against “strangers”: Recruitment into local political positions often excludes people who migrated from other parts of the country, leading to discrimination despite their long-term residence or citizenship. Ethnic and geographical balancing: ​ Many states practice power rotation between different ethnic or geographical groups to ease tensions, such as in Rivers State, where governorship rotates between "upland" and "riverine" communities.  Federal character principle: ​ Nigeria practices its own form of affirmative action, known as federal character, which ensures government positions reflect the ethnic composition of the locality or state. ​ This principle has been criticized for favoring identity over merit, with author Chinua Achebe calling it “morally bankrupt and corrupt.” Geopolitical zone-based appointments: ​ Federal institutions often make appointments based on Nigeria’s six geopolitical zones, which simplifies distribution compared to using the country’s thirty-six states. ​ There have been proposals to rotate the presidency among these six zones, though this has not been implemented due to long waiting periods for candidates from certain zones. Political Structure Political instability before current regime: ​ Nigeria experienced five successful coups and three civilian constitutions in the post-independence era. ​ Flawed elections in 2003 and 2007 indicated a tumultuous history. Milestones in Nigeria’s democratic journey: ​ The election of Olusegun Obasanjo in 1999 marked a major milestone in the transition to civilian rule. ​ The first peaceful transfer of civilian authority occurred in 2007. ​ The 2015 electoral defeat of the PDP by the APC rekindled hope for Nigeria’s democracy. Historical attempts at democracy: ​ Nigeria's current democratic system differs from two earlier attempts at democracy (1960–1966 and 1979–1983), which were short-lived. Early political participation: ​ The Clifford Constitution of 1922 was the first to allow Nigerians (from Lagos) to elect representatives. ​ Constitutional changes in the 1940s and 1950s extended elective offices to local and regional governments and introduced the federal structure. Frequent constitutional reforms: ​ Nigeria adopted new constitutions in 1963, 1979, and 1989. ​ A significant debate over constitutional reform took place in 1995 under Sani Abacha. ​ The current constitution was quickly implemented by the 1999 transition government.  Failed constitutional reforms: ​ Obasanjo attempted to amend the constitution through a National Political Reform Conference in 2005, but it failed. ​ President Jonathan also attempted ambitious constitutional reform with a "confab" in 2014, which ended in failure, with participants criticized for their behavior. The development of the constitution of 1999 ​ Military regimes and planned return to democracy: ○​ From 1983 to 1999, Nigeria was under a series of military regimes that consistently promised a return to democracy. ​ 1993 presidential election: ○​ Moshood Abiola, a Yoruba from the southwest, was widely believed to have won the 1993 presidential election. ○​ General Ibrahim Babangida annulled the election, sparking nationwide protests. ​ Political turmoil in the 1990s: ○​ A short-lived interim government took over in August 1993. ○​ General Sani Abacha staged a coup in November 1993, also promising a return to civilian rule. ○​ Abiola declared himself president in June 1994 but was arrested and charged with treason. ​ Deaths of Abiola and Abacha: ○​ Abiola died in prison in August 1998, just three months after Abacha's death—a coincidence viewed as suspicious by many Nigerians. ​ Drafting of the 1999 Constitution: ○​ After Abacha’s death, political elites quickly drafted a constitution based on the 1979 version, with little public input. ○​ Marginalized groups, such as MASSOB and MEND, question the legitimacy of the Constitution and call for a grassroots-based sovereign national conference to draft a new one. ​ Durability of the 1999 Constitution: ○​ Despite its undemocratic origins, the 1999 Constitution has lasted longer than previous ones, generating some loyalty due to its durability. ​ Constitutional structure: ​ Judicature: ○​ Supreme Court ○​ Court of Appeal ○​ Federal High Courts ​ Executive: ○​ President ○​ Vice President ○​ Council of State ​ National Assembly:  ○​ Senate ○​ House of Representatives ​ State Courts: ○​ High Court ○​ Shari’a Court of Appeal ○​ Customary Court of Appeal ​ Lower Courts: ○​ Magistrate ○​ Customary ○​ Alkali ​ State Governors: ○​ Deputy Governors ○​ State Commissioners ○​ State Civil Service ​ State Legislatures: ○​ House of Assembly ​ Local Government Councils ​ Traditional Authorities ​ Other components include: ○​ Military and Police, Federal Ministries, Federal Civil Service, and Federal Commissions. The system is presidential with a bicameral legislature. Federalism ​ Each constitution has embraced federalism in principles as means of reassuring the nation’s ethnic and regional interests Revenue Centralization: Despite Nigeria’s formal federalism, all levels of government rely heavily on oil revenue distributed by the central government, which undermines true federalism. Military Rule: Military governments have ruled Nigeria for a significant portion of its post-independence period (29 years since 1960), challenging the federal structure as the military operates under a centralized chain of command. State Creation: ​ Nigeria’s three original colonial regions were expanded to four, and then further subdivided, especially during and after the civil war in 1967. ​ The country expanded to 12 states in 1967, 19 in 1976, and 36 states by 1996, in addition to the Federal Capital Territory. ​ Local government areas also increased, driven by ethnic groups seeking representation and revenue from federal grants. Federal Character Principle: To prevent dominance by one region or group:  ​ Civil service jobs are distributed proportionately to various ethnic groups. ​ The National Youth Service Corps (NYSC) helps foster national integration by requiring university graduates to work in regions outside their own. Three-Level Federalism: Nigeria's constitution defines federal, state, and local government roles. This differs from other federations like the U.S. or Canada, where local governments fall more under state/provincial control. Uniform Local Government Structure: Although there is a uniform structure for local governments in Nigeria, it limits their ability to reflect local cultural diversity. Local governments mainly implement federal policies. Oil Revenue and Local Government: ​ The increase in local governments is not due to local decision-making power but the attraction of formula-driven revenue allocations from the central government. ​ Local governments receive 20% of federal revenues, creating a significant incentive for their creation. Growth of Public Sector: Government employment surged from about 71,693 employees at independence to over 630,000 by 1974 (not counting military personnel), with local governments contributing to further growth. Oil Revenue Disputes: ​ Disagreements over the derivation formula (how much oil revenue should go to producing regions) fuel tensions between the president, National Assembly, and states. ​ Major Supreme Court cases in 2002 addressed state claims to offshore oil revenues, further complicating the issue. Challenges to Genuine Federalism: Centralized oil revenue and competition over these funds undermine efforts to establish a more genuine federal system. Parliamentary versus Presidential Government Colonial Influence and Westminster System: ​ Nigeria, like other British colonies, initially adopted a parliamentary system modeled on the Westminster systemafter independence. ​ In 1963, Nigeria became a republic, with Nnamdi Azikiwe as the first president, holding mostly ceremonial powers, while the prime minister was the head of government. Transition to Presidentialism: ​ The 1966 collapse of civilian rule led to dissatisfaction with the parliamentary model. ​ In the 1970s, Nigeria adopted a presidential system modeled on the U.S. system, with a strong president and checks and balances between the executive and legislature.  ​ The Second Republic's instability did not deter Nigeria from maintaining a presidential system in later constitutions. 1999 Constitution: ​ Provides for an independently elected president and a bicameral National Assembly at the federal level. ​ Each of the 36 states has three senators (plus one for the Federal Capital Territory), and population size determines the number of representatives. ​ The House of Representatives has 360 members, and senators and representatives serve four-year terms. Legislative Structure: ​ The Speaker of the House presides over the House of Representatives. ​ The President of the Senate is in the line of succession after the vice president. ​ The number of committees has expanded (e.g., from 86 to 92 in the House between 2010 and 2015), but this expansion has fragmented responsibilities and overloaded members. Executive-Legislative Relations: ​ The executive introduces the federal budget and other major legislation, and disagreements between the president and National Assembly over the scope of modification have been frequent. ​ Even with a majority of the president's party in both chambers, conflicts between the executive and legislature persist. Cultural Pluralism and Governance: ​ Nigeria's struggles with constitutional stability are often debated in terms of presidentialism versus parliamentarism. ​ The root of instability may lie more in Nigeria's cultural pluralism than in the constitutional frameworks themselves. ​ A constitution alone cannot foster trust among Nigeria's diverse subcultures. The judiciary ​ The federal and state courts are integrated into a single system of trial and appeal courts ​ 1999 constitution provides a Supreme Court, Court of Appeal, and a state and federal courts with original and appellate jurisdictions ​ Shari’a- muslim koranic law ​ Traditional authorities maintain the biggest influence in judicial powers because states are allowed to constitute shari’a courts, which are a point of contention between muslim authorities and those who see official recognition as devise ​ Military regimes undermined the judiciary by governing through decrees and establishing military tribunals (a court of justice) even for common crimes such as robbery ​ 1999, the judiciary asserted itself as an independent arm of gov  ​ Judiciary ruled against the obasanjo administration for different important cases, disputes with lagos state gov over the creation of local govs, the status of atiku abubakar as vice president after the defected to any opposition party, the federal governments’ claim to offshore oil reserves, etc ​ Courts faced many setbacks over the years ​ Jonathan administration was accused of undermining the judiciary’s independence ​ Executive interference raises concerns about how to improve integrity without sacrificing judicial independence, but there is corruption in the courts ​ Judicial inefficiency: cours face massive backlogs and criminal cases can drag on for years despite constitutional guarantees of a speedy trial- a problem for those being members of the Boko Haram terrorist group Interest Articulation ​ Unions, trade associations, and religious bodies are well established organized interest groups in Nigeria ​ Clientelism (informal forms of participation) often structures participation through individual relationship- may be mutually beneficial Ethnic and religious associations ​ Many of the first voluntary associations in Nigeria had an ethnic base, ex: igbo federal union became the igbo state union ​ Minority groups found comfort in formal associations such as the Ibiobio State Union, Edo National Union, Urhobo Renascent Convention, etc. ​ These associations often from the organizational base for parties and contributed to latter associations’ ethnic orientations ​ Clientistic ties are stronger in the north, and associations, even of the ethnic type played less of a role ​ An ethnic association of contemporary signifcance is the movement for the survival of the ogoni people (MOSOP) founded by Ken Saro-Wiwa ​ Movement for the Survival of the Ogoni People (MOSOP): Founded by Ken Saro-Wiwa to represent the 500,000 Ogoni people impacted by Shell Oil drilling. ​ Environmental Concerns: The Ogoni people faced severe environmental destruction from Nigeria’s oil industry, leading to widespread dissatisfaction and a lack of compensation. ​ Escalation of Tensions: Tensions peaked in the 1990s when four Ogoni chiefs were murdered by militants, prompting government crackdowns. ​ Arrests and Convictions: Ken Saro-Wiwa and fourteen others were arrested and charged with murder, culminating in a controversial trial that ended with their execution in 1995, which drew international outrage. ​ International Outcry: World leaders, including Nelson Mandela, condemned the actions of the Nigerian government, highlighting the dire human rights situation under General Sani Abacha. ​ Legacy of Ken Saro-Wiwa: His legacy endured, leading to the exhumation of his and other executed Ogoni leaders’ bodies for a proper burial in 2002.  ​ Continued Activism: Saro-Wiwa’s son, Ken Jr., became an advocate for minority rights and environmental issues, producing a documentary on climate change's effects on Nigeria before his death in 2016. ​ Role of Religious Institutions: Religious organizations play a significant role in Nigerian politics, often remaining active and organized during periods of political repression. ​ Diversity of Religious Groups: These groups include churches, Koranic schools, and various leadership roles, but their effectiveness is sometimes hampered by conflicts between different religious communities. ​ Community Self-Help Organizations: Rapid urbanization has led to the growth of ethnically based self-help organizations that assist newcomers in adapting to city life. ​ Islamic Mystic Brotherhoods: Groups like the Tijaniyya are influential among lower-class Hausa Muslims, often viewed with suspicion by more orthodox Islamic representatives. ​ Emergence of New Ethnic Organizations: Under democratic governance, new ethnic groups have emerged, such as the Arewa Consultative Forum (defending northern interests) and the Odua Peoples’ Congress (advocating for Yoruba interests in the southwest). Associational Groups ​ Voluntary associations in Nigeria take a variety of forms, and their early history is intertwined within the nationalist movements ​ Professional orgs such as the Nigerian Bar Association, Nigerian Medical Association, and the Nigerian Union of Journalists were harassed during the era of military and the contributed to their politicalization and raising demands for democracy ​ Trade unions played roles in nigerian politics in the colonial period ​ University students and faculty were the earliest critics of military rule (strikes by staff and students are common today) ​ Undergrad education can be six to seven years ​ Sectors of the workforce have disproportionate impact on politics when they undertake a labor action ​ Unions representing the petroleum workers hold good sway because oil is important to the national economy ​ Labor Strikes: Strikes by the National Union of Petroleum and Gas Workers (NUPENG) and the Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association (PENGASSAN) helped pressure the military government in 1994. ​ Collective Labor Actions: Other labor actions are organized through the Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) and its affiliated unions. ​ Advocacy for Workers' Rights: Since 1999, the NLC has led protests demanding better wages and working conditions for workers. ​ Fuel Subsidy Defense: The NLC has consistently defended a subsidy that keeps fuel prices low in Nigeria. ​ Growth of Unions: As Nigeria’s economy grows and diversifies, new unions and professional associations are likely to emerge. ​ Occupy Movement Influence: The 2011–2012 Occupy Wall Street movement inspired similar labor-related organizations in Nigeria and other African countries.  ​ Civil Society Groups: Groups like the National Democratic Coalition (NADECO) were crucial in the fight for democracy in Nigeria. ​ Transition Monitoring Group (TMG): After the death of General Abacha in 1998, the TMG formed to advocate for electoral reform and monitor elections. ​ Election Monitoring: The TMG has trained thousands of election monitors to observe polling stations during elections and report on the process. ​ Policy Recommendations: The TMG sometimes issues reports critiquing the president's governance and suggesting policy reforms. Non- Associational Groups ​ A Nigerian example of non-associational interest group: the famous Kaduna Mafia ​ Richard Joseph’s descriptions: Kaduna Mafia referns to members of the Northern intelligentsia who assumed positions of political and social influence during the decade of military rule after the civil raw, often better educated, less dependent on the patronage of traditional rules to advance in their careers ​ Kaduna Mafia was influential in the Babanguda years ​ Influence of Political Groups: A group influential during the Babangida administration lost support under Sani Abacha. ​ General Shehu Musa Yar’Adua: A prominent political reformer from the Kaduna Mafia, he died in prison in 1997. ​ Umaru Musa Yar’Adua's Presidency: His election as president in 2007 was viewed by some as a resurgence of the Kaduna Mafia's influence. ​ Labor Force Composition: Most of Nigeria's labor force works in agriculture, suggesting a potential for strong farmer associations. ​ Challenges for Farmers: Ethnic divisions have weakened the formation of national-level farm organizations, resulting in mostly local cooperative activities. ​ Clientelism in Farming: Farmers often rely on clientelism to pursue their interests rather than forming unified national organizations. ​ Military as an Institution: The military is a significant institution in Nigeria, with enlisted personnel and lower-ranking officers often seeking a return to civilian rule. ​ Lack of Cohesion in the Military: The Nigerian military lacks a cohesive interest group identity and has a tradition of military professionalism. ​ Decline of Military Political Influence: The involvement of military officers in political parties during the Obasanjo administration has decreased over time. Patron Client Networks ​ Interest representation is found in patron-client networks- powerful political figures can mobalize support through personal connections with subordinates, when serve in a role of patron for a lower set of clients ​ Clientelism was an important aspect of political life in precolonial systems in Hausa, Yoruba, etc ​ People not represented by formal associations can take advantage of connections to achieve political ends at the local level and where traditional rulers and their political maintain some influence  ​ The pattern of personal contacts is ingrained in the culture and thus remains important as an approach to powerful modern figures that are independent of any local traditional context ​ Patron–Client Networks: Nigeria has a patronage system where rulers give public offices to individuals in exchange for loyalty and political support. ​ Permeation Across Regimes: This patronage system exists regardless of whether the government is civilian or military. ​ Rise of Godfathers: With the return of democracy, powerful figures known as "godfathers" emerged, trying to control candidate selection and manipulate elections. ​ Challenges to Restructuring: The persistence of these informal institutions complicates efforts to restructure the Nigerian administration. ​ Possible Decline: There are indications that the influence of godfathers may be declining following the elections in 2011 and 2015. ​ Governors' Power: Once in office, governors can build coalitions strong enough to distance themselves from their former patrons, potentially reducing the impact of patronage networks. Political Participation ​ Difficult to be precise about voter turnout, but it is estimated that voter participation is around 40-60% in elections post independence ​ Voter turnout is impressive for a illiterate and poor population ​ Partron-client systems is the machine politics and connects voters to the electoral process through personalistic ties with poltiical activists ​ Interest in elections decreased during Nigeria’s authoritarianism faze before 1999, because they felt betrayed bc the promise of transition was broken ​ Civilian rule engendered a new interest in electoral participation ​ 1999- estimated at 52% ​ 2003- estimated at 69% ​ 54% for presidential election in 2011 ​ Violence is present in political participation ​ Confrontations with police were common during the end of Babangida regime and challenges to Abacha’s seizure of power ​ Political parties used thugs to scare opponents or suppress participation ​ Violence by the state is a prominent feature of Nigerian politics ​ Biafran civil war 1967-1970= greatest example of political violence ​ The government remained complicit in human rights violations after the 1999 transition, with violence often taking the form of reprisals after security forces are attacked. The scale and frequency grew worse with the eruption of the Boko Haram insurgency in 2009. Parties and Elections ​ Violence contributed to the end of the First and Second Republics and other informal institutions such as the godfathers complicate political reform efforts ​ 2015 defeat at the polls of the party that dominated politics in Nigeria for 16 years is a step closer to democratic deepening and the peaceful transfer of power from one president to the next in 2007 + the transition from military rule in 1999  ​ Early political parties were influenced by colonialism ○​ Early political parties like the National Council of Nigeria and the Cameroons (NCNC) and the Action Group (AG) reflected these divisions. ​ Ethnic and Regional Politics: ○​ NCNC, led by Nnamdi Azikiwe, was a nationalist party appealing across regions. ○​ AG, led by Obafemi Awolowo, was strong in the West. ○​ Northern parties like the Northern People's Congress (NPC) mostly focused on their region, supported by traditional rulers. ​ Military Regimes: ○​ Political parties were banned or regulated after military coups (starting in 1966), and Nigeria often operated without political parties during military rule. ​ Party System Resumes: ○​ In 1998, a transition government allowed new parties, leading to the creation of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). ○​ Major parties in 1999: People’s Democratic Party (PDP), All People’s Party (APP), and Alliance for Democracy (AD). ○​ Obasanjo won the 1999 and 2003 presidential elections. ​ 2007 Election Issues: ○​ Umaru Musa Yar'Adua became president amid widespread claims of electoral fraud. ​ Constitutional Crisis in 2010: ○​ Vice President Goodluck Jonathan became president after Yar'Adua's death. ​ 2011 Election: ○​ Jonathan won with 59% of the vote, but post-election violence erupted, especially in the north. ​ Buhari’s Victory in 2015: ○​ After several failed attempts, Buhari won the presidency in 2015. ○​ His party, the All Progressives Congress (APC), was formed by a merger of opposition parties, defeating the long-ruling PDP. ​ APC Internal Tensions: ○​ Despite their victory, divisions emerged within the APC over political appointments. Ethnic solidarity and Party Loyalty ​ Ethnicity drives alot of political organizing and leaders undermine national parties through ethnic appeals Historical Northern Dominance: ​ Northerners regularly held the presidency before Obasanjo's election. Ethnic Party Foundations:  ​ Political parties often formed along ethnic and regional lines, complicating their role in uniting national interests. Yoruba Frustration: ​ The annulment of the 1993 election, which denied a southern victory, deepened Yoruba frustration, who felt they'd also been denied the presidency in 1979. 1999 Transition: ​ In the 1999 elections, influential northerners supported Obasanjo (a southerner), helping the PDP rise. Hope for Ethnic Integration: ​ The APC’s formation and its support base in 2015 showed potential for more ethnically and regionally inclusive parties. Evolution of Parties: ​ Parties evolved from being regionally based to seeking broader ethnic and minority support. Two-Party System: ​ In the 1990s, the military created two artificial political parties: the Social Democratic Party (SDP) and National Republican Council (NRC). 1993 Election Crisis: ​ Despite a fair election, results were annulled, leading to protests and the end of Babangida’s regime. Corruption and Security Issues (2011-2015): ​ Boko Haram’s insurgency and corruption scandals under Jonathan's presidency damaged the government’s reputation, contributing to the APC’s success in 2015. APC’s Historic Victory: ​ In 2015, for the first time, an opposition party (APC) defeated a ruling party (PDP), marking a key moment for Nigerian democracy. Extractive Performance  ​ Inherited a fiscal system in 1960 heavily dependent on taxes and trade ​ Colonial administration developed a new revenue system that operated through agricultural marketing boards- to provide stability to farms ​ Tax riots occurred in the western region in 1968, 1969, leading to the establishment of flat tax ​ In the 1st republic and gowon administration, state gov collected personal income, sales, and poll taxes ​ Tax collection declined as new states were created ​ Rising oil revenues strengthen the fiscal position of federal gov ​ Nigeria depends mostly on revenues from the oil industry ​ Oil $ weakens the incentives for states to generate revenue internally ​ Lagos raises the most revenue ​ Nigeria's vast oil reserves have reduced its reliance on direct foreign aid, unlike many African countries. Borrowing Against Oil: ​ In the 1970s and 1980s, Nigeria used its oil reserves as collateral for massive foreign borrowing. Rising Debt: ​ These loans funded large capital projects but led to a significant rise in external debt, from 10% of GNP to 140.5% between 1980 and 1995. Foreign Influence: ​ Oil wealth did not bring financial independence; instead, Nigeria's debt gave international lenders significant influence over the country’s public funding. Debt Payoffs in 2006: ​ The 2006 debt repayments helped reduce foreign influence, but the resurgence of borrowing since 2010 could reintroduce external leverage over Nigeria’s finances. Distributive Performance ​ With high raw material advantage, the lives of Nigerian citizens has not improved over the years ​ Human Development Index (HDI): based on three factors: life expectancy at birth, adult literacy rates, and per capita GDP ​ 152 out of 188 countries on the HDI, 155 is in terms of the GDP per capita ​ Military budgets increased from $234 million to $1.5 billion between 2000 and 2009 ​ Armed forces grew at 250,000 at the height of the Biafran war ​ Nigerian leaders utilized military strength to keep a high profile in West Africa ​ Increase in military size raises concern about civilian control of the military ​ Education enrollment has improved, and all parties and regimes have promised universal access to education ​ Universal Basic Education law 2004 passed, but nigerian children, especially girls face economic and social obstacles to stay in school ​ Gov health performance surrounding health is mediocre ○​ Nigeria’s economy heavily relies on oil, which is controlled by the government and influences wealth distribution. ​ Private Consumption and Inequality: ○​ Oil revenues led to a surge in private consumption (8% annually in the 1970s), but wealth mainly benefited the top, with minimal gains for the lower 40% of the population. ​ Government Spending and Corruption: ○​ Government expenditure increased rapidly, often plagued by corruption, including a case where $12.6 billion was unaccounted for in 1994. ​ Inflation and Money Supply: ○​ The oil boom of the 1970s increased the money supply, fueling continuous inflation, which became severe in the 1990s, peaking at 75% in 1995. ​ Currency Devaluation and Inflation’s Impact: ○​ The weakening of the naira, especially post-2014, has made foreign imports more expensive, burdening the population further. ​ Inflation and Salaries: ○​ Salaries, like those for university professors, lost value over time due to inflation, despite nominal increases. For instance, a professor’s salary dropped in real terms from $9,000 in 1977 to $1,125 in 1997 due to inflation and currency devaluation. ​ Attempts to Combat Inflation: ○​ Governments have tried to manage inflation by controlling the naira’s exchange rate, leading to chaos and corruption in the financial system due to the gap between official and market rates. ​ Shift to Market-Determined Currency: ○​ Since 1999, the naira's value has been largely determined by supply and demand, reducing government intervention in currency stabilization. ​ Federal Revenue Allocation System (RAS): ○​ Nigeria’s budget distribution system is often referred to as the “national cake,” with the federal government controlling 66-75% of public funds and state/local governments depending heavily (70-90%) on federal revenues. ​ Struggles for Statehood and Autonomy:  ○​ Given the importance of the federal revenue system, regions and localities compete for statehood and population counts, as these determine their share of the budget. Dealing with debt and structural adjustment ​ Nigeria heavily borrowed from internal financial institutions, the IMF and World Bank in the 1980’s ​ Ibrahim Babangida opened a national debate on the issue of debt, he claimed a nigerian version of structural adjustment ​ SAP became unpopular when the measures of the program came to life, the result was that SAP did not reduce debt or reform Abacha's economic policies: ​ Resisted the IMF’s advice to float the exchange rate. ​ Limited reforms in 1995 failed to improve the economy. ​ Total external debt rose to nearly $8 billion. ​ The Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) owed over $1 billion to foreign partners. Petroleum subsidy and its effects: ​ Reduced the subsidy on petroleum products despite gasoline shortages, raising costs for consumers. ​ Efforts to eliminate the subsidy sparked widespread protests and long lines at filling stations. ​ Citizens feared the reforms would increase the cost of public transportation, food, and daily essentials. ​ Obiora Chinedu Okafor noted that fuel price hikes were consistently unpopular and resisted by most Nigerians. Strikes and protests: ​ A nationwide strike organized by the Nigerian Labour Congress (NLC) and other unions occurred in January 2012, after the finance minister suddenly announced the removal of the fuel subsidy. ​ This strike nearly shut down the country, highlighting the policy failure of a petroleum-rich nation unable to provide fuel except through a corrupt and subsidized system. Debt under President Jonathan:  ​ Debt began to rise again under President Jonathan’s administration, as the government and states borrowed with confidence due to economic growth. ​ Following the global drop in oil prices in 2014, borrowing continued at all levels, exacerbated by the sharp decline in oil revenues. Regulative Performance Policy Information and Legislation ​ After 1960 independence, Nigeria Police Force was essentially regionalized ​ The military regime decided to consildate the police function nationally ​ National police force: enforces traffic laws and other government legislation ​ Military’s role in law enforcement has became prominent after increased terrorist violence in 2009 ​ Military regimes intruded the rule of law ​ The Buhari regime imposed the State Security (detention of persons) Decree in 1984, allowing detention without trial of those suspected of posing a threat to national security ​ Nigerian’s democratic regime aims to end arbitrary exercises of authority, but detention without trial in a serious problem because of inefficiencies, inadequate resources, and few public defenders Census as a key policy issue: ​ In Nigeria, the census has overshadowed other policy issues since independence, as the population count affects the distribution of political goods and resources. ​ Unlike in many other countries, population counts in Nigeria have been highly contentious due to their impact on federal subsidies, which form the majority of budget allocations. History of census disputes: ​ Nigeria continued to rely on outdated 1963 census figures for nearly two more decades. ​ The Babangida government commissioned a new census through the National Population Commission in 1991. ​ The 1991 census estimated the population at 88.5 million, a significant downward revision from previous estimates exceeding 100 million. Regional population distribution: ​ Highest population concentrations in 1991 were in northern states such as Bauchi, Kaduna, Kano, Katsina, and Sokoto, and southern states such as Lagos, Oyo, and Rivers. South vs. North census controversies:  ​ The south expressed frustration, believing the figures were manipulated to favor the north. ​ Political acceptability, rather than statistical accuracy, continues to influence census outcomes in Nigeria, demonstrating the persistent ethnopolitical manipulation of demographic data. Census delays: ​ The 2006 census saw slight improvements but was still contentious. ​ A planned 2016 census was postponed as the Buhari administration prioritized issues like Boko Haram, economic stabilization, and other pressing matters. Conclusion on performance Challenges of Nigeria’s political culture: ​ The idea that public policy is primarily about distributing the "national cake" – government resources allocated based on political influence – is deeply ingrained in Nigeria’s political culture. ​ This mindset has led to recurring ethnic conflicts, fueled corruption, and hindered democratic progress. Positive developments: ​ Citizens and civil society groups increasingly hold politicians accountable. ​ Battles over the federal budget between the National Assembly and the Presidency have improved the transparency of federal spending and encouraged public dialogue on spending priorities. Improving governance: ​ Enhancing government performance will require responsive political institutions, civic education, and a shift in Nigeria’s political culture. ​ Rediscovering norms of community participation and the public articulation of shared goals, which are rooted in Nigeria’s ancient cultures, could contribute to this improvement. Nigeria in Africa and in the World ​ Nigeria’s amry grew from 10,000 to 250,000 during the civil way over Biafra ​ Biafra and strained relations: Cote d'Ivoire, under President Houphouet-Boigny, supported Biafra, which caused strained relations between Nigeria and some West African nations after the war. ​ Establishment of ECOWAS: Nigeria played a key role in forming ECOWAS in 1975 to strengthen ties with West African countries and counter French influence. ​ Economic challenges: ECOWAS struggled with trade integration and financial contributions, with Nigeria contributing nearly 60% of its revenues between 2003-2008. ​ Nigeria's leadership in Africa: Nigeria led African nations in critiquing international debt policies, particularly through the Lagos Plan of Action and initiatives like NEPAD, aimed at improving governance and transparency. ​ Regional and international influence: Nigeria has contributed significantly to peacekeeping efforts through ECOMOG in Liberia and Sierra Leone and has participated in UN missions globally. ​ Security and foreign policy: Nigeria addresses internal and regional security challenges, including Boko Haram, human trafficking, and terrorism, often treating them as domestic issues but incorporating ECOWAS in policy formulation. ​ Buhari’s leadership: President Buhari focused on anti-corruption and the fight against Boko Haram, but economic management and political stability remained ongoing challenges during his tenure.