A Leader's Framework for Decision Making PDF

www.hbrreprints.org Wise executives tailor their approach to fit the complexity of the circumstances they face. A Leader’s Framework...

www.hbrreprints.org Wise executives tailor their approach to fit the complexity of the circumstances they face. A Leader’s Framework for Decision Making by David J. Snowden and Mary E. Boone Reprint R0711C This document is authorized for use only by Eliza Quek ([email protected]). Copying or posting is an infringement of copyright. Please contact [email protected] or 800-988-0886 for additional copies.  Wise executives tailor their approach to fit the complexity of the circumstances they face. A Leader’s Framework for Decision Making by David J. Snowden and Mary E. Boone In January 1993, a gunman murdered seven in others. Why do these approaches fail even people in a fast-food restaurant in Palatine, a when logic indicates they should prevail? suburb of Chicago. In his dual roles as an ad- The answer lies in a fundamental assumption COPYRIGHT © 2007 HARVARD BUSINESS SCHOOL PUBLISHING CORPORATION. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. ministrative executive and spokesperson for of organizational theory and practice: that a the police department, Deputy Chief Walter certain level of predictability and order ex- Gasior suddenly had to cope with several ists in the world. This assumption, grounded different situations at once. He had to deal in the Newtonian science that underlies scien- with the grieving families and a frightened tific management, encourages simplifications community, help direct the operations of an that are useful in ordered circumstances. extremely busy police department, and take Circumstances change, however, and as they questions from the media, which inundated become more complex, the simplifications the town with reporters and film crews. can fail. Good leadership is not a one-size- “There would literally be four people coming fits-all proposition. at me with logistics and media issues all at We believe the time has come to broaden once,” he recalls. “And in the midst of all this, the traditional approach to leadership and we still had a department that had to keep decision making and form a new perspective running on a routine basis.” based on complexity science. (For more on Though Gasior was ultimately successful in this, see the sidebar “Understanding Complex- juggling multiple demands, not all leaders ity.”) Over the past ten years, we have applied achieve the desired results when they face the principles of that science to governments situations that require a variety of decisions and a broad range of industries. Working with and responses. All too often, managers rely other contributors, we developed the Cynefin on common leadership approaches that work framework, which allows executives to see well in one set of circumstances but fall short things from new viewpoints, assimilate complex harvard business review november 2007 page 1 This document is authorized for use only by Eliza Quek ([email protected]). Copying or posting is an infringement of copyright. Please contact [email protected] or 800-988-0886 for additional copies.  A Leader’s Framework for Decision Making concepts, and address real-world problems are easily discernible by everyone. Often, the and opportunities. (Cynefin, pronounced right answer is self-evident and undisputed. In ku-nev-in, is a Welsh word that signifies the this realm of “known knowns,” decisions are multiple factors in our environment and our unquestioned because all parties share an un- experience that influence us in ways we can derstanding. Areas that are little subject to never understand.) Using this approach, change, such as problems with order process- leaders learn to define the framework with ing and fulfillment, usually belong here. examples from their own organization’s his- Simple contexts, properly assessed, require tory and scenarios of its possible future. This straightforward management and monitoring. enhances communication and helps execu- Here, leaders sense, categorize, and respond. tives rapidly understand the context in which That is, they assess the facts of the situation, they are operating. categorize them, and then base their response The U.S. Defense Advanced Research on established practice. Heavily process- Projects Agency has applied the framework oriented situations, such as loan payment to counterterrorism, and it is currently a key processing, are often simple contexts. If some- component of Singapore’s Risk Assessment thing goes awry, an employee can usually and Horizon Scanning program. Over time, identify the problem (when, say, a borrower the framework has evolved through hun- pays less than is required), categorize it dreds of applications, from helping a pharma- (review the loan documents to see how partial ceutical company develop a new product payments must be processed), and respond strategy to assisting a Canadian provincial appropriately (either not accept the payment government in its efforts to engage employees or apply the funds according to the terms in policy making. of the note). Since both managers and employ- The framework sorts the issues facing ees have access to the information necessary leaders into five contexts defined by the nature for dealing with the situation in this domain, of the relationship between cause and effect. a command-and-control style for setting Four of these—simple, complicated, com- parameters works best. Directives are straight- plex, and chaotic—require leaders to diagnose forward, decisions can be easily delegated, situations and to act in contextually appropri- and functions are automated. Adhering to ate ways. The fifth—disorder—applies when best practices or process reengineering makes it is unclear which of the other four contexts sense. Exhaustive communication among is predominant. managers and employees is not usually re- Using the Cynefin framework can help ex- quired because disagreement about what ecutives sense which context they are in so needs to be done is rare. that they can not only make better decisions Nevertheless, problems can arise in simple but also avoid the problems that arise when contexts. First, issues may be incorrectly clas- their preferred management style causes sified within this domain because they have them to make mistakes. In this article, we been oversimplified. Leaders who constantly focus on the first four contexts, offering exam- ask for condensed information, regardless of ples and suggestions about how to lead and the complexity of the situation, particularly make appropriate decisions in each of them. run this risk. Since the complex domain is much more Second, leaders are susceptible to entrained prevalent in the business world than most thinking, a conditioned response that occurs David J. Snowden (snowded@mac leaders realize—and requires different, often when people are blinded to new ways of think-.com) is the founder and chief scientific counterintuitive, responses—we concentrate ing by the perspectives they acquired through officer of Cognitive Edge, an interna- particularly on that context. Leaders who past experience, training, and success. tional research network. He is based understand that the world is often irrational Third, when things appear to be going primarily in Lockeridge, England. and unpredictable will find the Cynefin smoothly, leaders often become complacent. Mary E. Boone (mary@maryboone framework particularly useful. If the context changes at that point, a leader.com) is the president of Boone Associ- is likely to miss what is happening and react ates, a consulting firm in Essex, Con- Simple Contexts: The Domain of too late. In the exhibit “The Cynefin Frame- necticut, and the author of numerous Best Practice work,” the simple domain lies adjacent to books and articles, including Managing Simple contexts are characterized by stability the chaotic—and for good reason. The most Interactively (McGraw-Hill, 2001). and clear cause-and-effect relationships that frequent collapses into chaos occur because harvard business review november 2007 page 2 This document is authorized for use only by Eliza Quek ([email protected]). Copying or posting is an infringement of copyright. Please contact [email protected] or 800-988-0886 for additional copies.  A Leader’s Framework for Decision Making success has bred complacency. This shift can longer leads to foresight after a shift in con- bring about catastrophic failure—think of text, a corresponding change in management the many previously dominant technolo- style may be called for. gies that were suddenly disrupted by more dynamic alternatives. Complicated Contexts: The Domain Leaders need to avoid micromanaging and of Experts stay connected to what is happening in order Complicated contexts, unlike simple ones, to spot a change in context. By and large, may contain multiple right answers, and line workers in a simple situation are more though there is a clear relationship between than capable of independently handling cause and effect, not everyone can see it. This any issues that may arise. Indeed, those is the realm of “known unknowns.” While with years of experience also have deep insight leaders in a simple context must sense, catego- into how the work should be done. Leaders rize, and respond to a situation, those in a should create a communication channel—an complicated context must sense, analyze, and anonymous one, if necessary—that allows respond. This approach is not easy and often dissenters to provide early warnings about requires expertise: A motorist may know that complacency. something is wrong with his car because the Finally, it’s important to remember that engine is knocking, but he has to take it to a best practice is, by definition, past practice. mechanic to diagnose the problem. Using best practices is common, and often Because the complicated context calls for appropriate, in simple contexts. Difficulties investigating several options—many of which arise, however, if staff members are discour- may be excellent—good practice, as opposed to aged from bucking the process even when best practice, is more appropriate. For exam- it’s not working anymore. Since hindsight no ple, the customary approach to engineering a Understanding Complexity Complexity is more a way of thinking about frequently referred to as emergence. isolation. More recently, some thinkers and the world than a new way of working with The system has a history, and the past practitioners have started to argue that mathematical models. Over a century ago, is integrated with the present; the ele- human complex systems are very different Frederick Winslow Taylor, the father of scien- ments evolve with one another and from those in nature and cannot be modeled tific management, revolutionized leadership. with the environment; and evolution in the same ways because of human unpre- Today, advances in complexity science, com- is irreversible. dictability and intellect. Consider the follow- bined with knowledge from the cognitive Though a complex system may, in retro- ing ways in which humans are distinct from sciences, are transforming the field once spect, appear to be ordered and predict- other animals: again. Complexity is poised to help current able, hindsight does not lead to foresight They have multiple identities and can and future leaders make sense of advanced because the external conditions and fluidly switch between them without technology, globalization, intricate markets, systems constantly change. conscious thought. (For example, a per- cultural change, and much more. In short, Unlike in ordered systems (where the son can be a respected member of the the science of complexity can help all of us system constrains the agents), or chaotic community as well as a terrorist.) address the challenges and opportunities we systems (where there are no constraints), They make decisions based on past face in a new epoch of human history. in a complex system the agents and the patterns of success and failure, rather A complex system has the following char- system constrain one another, especially than on logical, definable rules. acteristics: over time. This means that we cannot They can, in certain circumstances, pur- It involves large numbers of interacting forecast or predict what will happen. posefully change the systems in which elements. One of the early theories of complexity is they operate to equilibrium states (think The interactions are nonlinear, and that complex phenomena arise from simple of a Six Sigma project) in order to create minor changes can produce dispropor- rules. Consider the rules for the flocking predictable outcomes. tionately major consequences. behavior of birds: Fly to the center of the Leaders who want to apply the principles The system is dynamic, the whole is flock, match speed, and avoid collision. This of complexity science to their organizations greater than the sum of its parts, and simple-rule theory was applied to industrial will need to think and act differently than solutions can’t be imposed; rather, they modeling and production early on, and it they have in the past. This may not be easy, arise from the circumstances. This is promised much; but it did not deliver in but it is essential in complex contexts. harvard business review november 2007 page 3 This document is authorized for use only by Eliza Quek ([email protected]). Copying or posting is an infringement of copyright. Please contact [email protected] or 800-988-0886 for additional copies.  A Leader’s Framework for Decision Making new cell phone might emphasize feature A over their knowledge, and they are unlikely to feature B, but an alternative plan—emphasizing tolerate controversial ideas. If the context feature C—might be equally valuable. has shifted, however, the leader may need Another example is the search for oil or access to those maverick concepts. To get mineral deposits. The effort usually requires a around this issue, a leader must listen to the team of experts, more than one place will po- experts while simultaneously welcoming tentially produce results, and the location of novel thoughts and solutions from others. the right spots for drilling or mining involves Executives at one shoe manufacturer did complicated analysis and understanding of this by opening up the brainstorming pro- consequences at multiple levels. cess for new shoe styles to the entire com- Entrained thinking is a danger in compli- pany. As a result, a security guard submitted cated contexts, too, but it is the experts a design for a shoe that became one of their (rather than the leaders) who are prone to best sellers. it, and they tend to dominate the domain. Another potential obstacle is “analysis When this problem occurs, innovative sugges- paralysis,” where a group of experts hits a tions by nonexperts may be overlooked or stalemate, unable to agree on any answers dismissed, resulting in lost opportunities. The because of each individual’s entrained experts have, after all, invested in building thinking—or ego. Working in unfamiliar environments can help leaders and experts approach decision making more creatively. For instance, we put The Cynefin Framework retail marketing professionals in several mili- tary research environments for two weeks. The Cynefin framework helps leaders world of fact-based management; the The settings were unfamiliar and challenging, determine the prevailing operative context unordered world represents pattern- but they shared a primary similarity with the so that they can make appropriate based management. retail environment: In both cases, the market- choices. Each domain requires different The very nature of the fifth context— ers had to work with large volumes of data actions. Simple and complicated contexts disorder—makes it particularly difficult to from which it was critical to identify small assume an ordered universe, where recognize when one is in it. Here, multi- trends or weak signals. They discovered that cause-and-effect relationships are per- ple perspectives jostle for prominence, there was little difference between, say, ceptible, and right answers can be deter- factional leaders argue with one another, handling outgoing disaffected customers and mined based on the facts. Complex and and cacophony rules. The way out of this anticipating incoming ballistic missiles. The chaotic contexts are unordered—there is realm is to break down the situation into exercise helped the marketing group learn no immediately apparent relationship constituent parts and assign each to one how to detect a potential loss of loyalty between cause and effect, and the way of the other four realms. Leaders can and take action before a valued customer forward is determined based on emerg- then make decisions and intervene in switched to a competitor. By improving their ing patterns. The ordered world is the contextually appropriate ways. strategy, the marketers were able to retain far more high-volume business. Games, too, can encourage novel thinking. We created a game played on a fictional planet that was based on the culture of a real client organization. When the executives “landed” on the alien planet, they were asked to address problems and opportunities facing the inhabitants. The issues they encountered Based on a graphic by Debera Johnson were disguised but designed to mirror real situations, many of which were controversial or sensitive. Because the environment seemed so foreign and remote, however, the players found it much easier to come up with fresh ideas than they otherwise might have done. Playing a metaphorical game increases man- agers’ willingness to experiment, allows them to resolve issues or problems more easily harvard business review november 2007 page 4 This document is authorized for use only by Eliza Quek ([email protected]). Copying or posting is an infringement of copyright. Please contact [email protected] or 800-988-0886 for additional copies.  A Leader’s Framework for Decision Making and creatively, and broadens the range of will die. None of those experts knew a priori options in their decision-making processes. what would work. Instead, they had to let a The goal of such games is to get as many solution emerge from the materials at hand. perspectives as possible to promote unfet- And they succeeded. (Conditions of scarcity tered analysis. often produce more creative results than Reaching decisions in the complicated do- conditions of abundance.) main can often take a lot of time, and there is Another example comes from YouTube. always a trade-off between finding the right The founders could not possibly have pre- answer and simply making a decision. When dicted all the applications for streaming the right answer is elusive, however, and you video technology that now exist. Once people must base your decision on incomplete data, started using YouTube creatively, however, your situation is probably complex rather the company could support and augment the than complicated. emerging patterns of use. YouTube has become a popular platform for expressing political Complex Contexts: The Domain of views, for example. The company built on this Emergence pattern by sponsoring a debate for presiden- In a complicated context, at least one right tial hopefuls with video feeds from the site. answer exists. In a complex context, however, As in the other contexts, leaders face sev- right answers can’t be ferreted out. It’s like the eral challenges in the complex domain. Of difference between, say, a Ferrari and the primary concern is the temptation to fall Brazilian rainforest. Ferraris are complicated back into traditional command-and-control machines, but an expert mechanic can take management styles—to demand fail-safe one apart and reassemble it without changing business plans with defined outcomes. Leaders a thing. The car is static, and the whole is the who don’t recognize that a complex domain sum of its parts. The rainforest, on the other requires a more experimental mode of man- hand, is in constant flux—a species becomes agement may become impatient when they extinct, weather patterns change, an agricul- don’t seem to be achieving the results they tural project reroutes a water source—and the were aiming for. They may also find it difficult whole is far more than the sum of its parts. to tolerate failure, which is an essential aspect This is the realm of “unknown unknowns,” and of experimental understanding. If they try it is the domain to which much of contempo- to overcontrol the organization, they will rary business has shifted. preempt the opportunity for informative Most situations and decisions in organiza- patterns to emerge. Leaders who try to impose tions are complex because some major order in a complex context will fail, but those change—a bad quarter, a shift in management, who set the stage, step back a bit, allow a merger or acquisition—introduces unpre- patterns to emerge, and determine which dictability and flux. In this domain, we can un- ones are desirable will succeed. (See the derstand why things happen only in retrospect. sidebar “Tools for Managing in a Complex Instructive patterns, however, can emerge if Context.”) They will discern many opportu- the leader conducts experiments that are safe nities for innovation, creativity, and new to fail. That is why, instead of attempting business models. to impose a course of action, leaders must patiently allow the path forward to reveal Chaotic Contexts: The Domain of itself. They need to probe first, then sense, Rapid Response and then respond. In a chaotic context, searching for right an- There is a scene in the film Apollo 13 when swers would be pointless: The relationships the astronauts encounter a crisis (“Houston, between cause and effect are impossible to de- we have a problem”) that moves the situation termine because they shift constantly and no into a complex domain. A group of experts is manageable patterns exist—only turbulence. put in a room with a mishmash of materials— This is the realm of unknowables. The events bits of plastic and odds and ends that mirror of September 11, 2001, fall into this category. the resources available to the astronauts in In the chaotic domain, a leader’s immediate flight. Leaders tell the team: This is what job is not to discover patterns but to stanch the you have; find a solution or the astronauts bleeding. A leader must first act to establish harvard business review november 2007 page 5 This document is authorized for use only by Eliza Quek ([email protected]). Copying or posting is an infringement of copyright. Please contact [email protected] or 800-988-0886 for additional copies.  A Leader’s Framework for Decision Making order, then sense where stability is present establish order. However, in his role as and from where it is absent, and then respond mayor—certainly one of the most complex by working to transform the situation from jobs in the world—he was widely criticized chaos to complexity, where the identification for the same top-down leadership style that of emerging patterns can both help prevent proved so enormously effective during the future crises and discern new opportunities. catastrophe. He was also criticized afterward Communication of the most direct top-down for suggesting that elections be postponed so or broadcast kind is imperative; there’s simply he could maintain order and stability. Indeed, no time to ask for input. a specific danger for leaders following a crisis Unfortunately, most leadership “recipes” is that some of them become less successful arise from examples of good crisis manage- when the context shifts because they are not ment. This is a mistake, and not only because able to switch styles to match it. chaotic situations are mercifully rare. Though Moreover, leaders who are highly successful the events of September 11 were not immedi- in chaotic contexts can develop an overin- ately comprehensible, the crisis demanded flated self-image, becoming legends in their decisive action. New York’s mayor at the time, own minds. When they generate cultlike adora- Rudy Giuliani, demonstrated exceptional tion, leading actually becomes harder for effectiveness under chaotic conditions by them because a circle of admiring supporters issuing directives and taking action to re- cuts them off from accurate information. Tools for Managing in a Complex Context Given the ambiguities of the complex do- the condition of the merchandise. meeting environment. Each team ap- main, how can leaders lead effectively? Participants police themselves by points a spokesperson who moves Open up the discussion. Complex rating one another on the quality of from that team’s table to another contexts require more interactive their behavior. team’s table. The spokesperson pre- communication than any of the other Stimulate attractors. Attractors are sents the first group’s conclusions while domains. Large group methods (LGMs), phenomena that arise when small stim- the second group listens in silence. The for instance, are efficient approaches uli and probes (whether from leaders or spokesperson then turns around to face to initiating democratic, interactive, others) resonate with people. As attrac- away from the second team, which rips multidirectional discussion sessions. tors gain momentum, they provide into the presentation, no holds barred, Here, people generate innovative ideas structure and coherence. EBay again while the spokesperson listens quietly. that help leaders with development and provides an illustrative example. In Each team’s spokesperson visits other execution of complex decisions and strat- 1995, founder Pierre Omidyar launched tables in turn; by the end of the session, egies. For example, “positive deviance” is an offering called Auction Web on his all the ideas have been well dissected a type of LGM that allows people to personal website. His probe, the first and honed. Taking turns listening in si- discuss solutions that are already work- item for sale, quickly morphed into lence helps everyone understand the ing within the organization itself, rather eBay, a remarkable attractor for people value of listening carefully, speaking than looking to outside best practices who want to buy and sell things. Today, openly, and not taking criticism personally. for clues about how to proceed. The sellers on eBay continue to provide ex- Manage starting conditions and Plexus Institute used this approach to perimental probes that create attractors monitor for emergence. Because out- address the complex problem of hospital- of various types. One such probe, selling comes are unpredictable in a complex acquired infections, resulting in behavior a car on the site, resonated with buyers, context, leaders need to focus on creat- change that lowered the incidence by and soon automobile sales became a ing an environment from which good as much as 50%. popular attractor. things can emerge, rather than trying Set barriers. Barriers limit or delineate Encourage dissent and diversity. to bring about predetermined results behavior. Once the barriers are set, the Dissent and formal debate are valuable and possibly missing opportunities system can self-regulate within those communication assets in complex that arise unexpectedly. Many years boundaries. The founders of eBay, for contexts because they encourage the ago, for instance, 3M instituted a rule al- example, created barriers by establishing emergence of well-forged patterns and lowing its researchers to spend 15% of a simple set of rules. Among them are ideas. A “ritual dissent” approach, for their time on any project that interested pay on time, deliver merchandise instance, puts parallel teams to work on them. One result was a runaway success: quickly, and provide full disclosure on the same problem in a large group the Post-it Note. harvard business review november 2007 page 6 This document is authorized for use only by Eliza Quek ([email protected]). Copying or posting is an infringement of copyright. Please contact [email protected] or 800-988-0886 for additional copies.  A Leader’s Framework for Decision Making Decisions in Multiple Contexts: A Leader’s Guide Effective leaders learn to shift their decision-making styles to match changing business environments. Simple, complicated, complex, and chaotic contexts each call for different managerial responses. By correctly identifying the governing context, staying aware of danger signals, and avoiding inappropriate reactions, managers can lead effectively in a variety of situations. THE CONTEXT’S RESPONSE TO CHARACTERISTICS THE LEADER’S JOB DANGER SIGNALS DANGER SIGNALS Repeating patterns and Sense, categorize, respond Complacency and comfort Create communication consistent events Ensure that proper processes are Desire to make complex channels to challenge orthodoxy Clear cause-and-effect in place problems simple St ay connected without relationships evident to every- Delegate Entrained thinking micromanaging SIMPLE one; right answer exists Don’t assume things Use best practices No challenge of received wisdom Known knowns are simple Communicate in clear, direct ways Overreliance on best practice if Fact-based management context shifts Recognize both the value and Understand that extensive the limitations of best practice interactive communication may not be necessary E x per t diagnosis required Sense, analyze, respond Experts overconfident in their Encourage external and internal own solutions or in the efficacy of stakeholders to challenge expert Cause-and-effect relationships Create panels of experts COMPLICATED past solutions opinions to combat entrained discoverable but not immediately Listen to conflicting advice thinking apparent to everyone; more than Analysis paralysis one right answer possible Use experiments and games to Expert panels force people to think outside the Known unknowns Viewpoints of nonexperts familiar Fact-based management excluded Flux and unpredictability Probe, sense, respond Temptation to fall back into Be patient and allow time for habitual, command-and-control reflection No right answers; emergent Create environments and mode instructive patterns experiments that allow patterns Use approaches that to emerge Tempt ation to look for facts encourage interaction so Unknown unknowns rather than allowing patterns to patterns can emerge Increase levels of interaction and COMPLEX Many competing ideas emerge communication A need for creative and innova- Desire for accelerated resolution Use methods that can help gener- tive approaches of problems or exploitation of ate ideas: Open up discussion (as Pattern-based leadership opportunities through large group methods); set barriers; stimulate attractors; encourage dissent and diversity; and manage starting conditions and monitor for emergence High turbulence Act, sense, respond A pplying a command-and-control Set up mechanisms (such as approach longer than needed parallel teams) to take advantage No clear cause-and-effect rela- Look for what works instead of of opportunities afforded by a tionships, so no point in looking seeking right answers “Cult of the leader” chaotic environment for right answers CHAOTIC Take immediate action to Missed opportunity for innovation Encourage advisers to challenge Unknowables reestablish order (command and Chaos unabated your point of view once the crisis control) Many decisions to make and no has abated time to think P rovide clear, direct Work to shift the context from communication High tension chaotic to complex Pattern-based leadership harvard business review november 2007 page 7 This document is authorized for use only by Eliza Quek ([email protected]). Copying or posting is an infringement of copyright. Please contact [email protected] or 800-988-0886 for additional copies.  A Leader’s Framework for Decision Making Yet the chaotic domain is nearly always their workplaces. Had Gasior misread the the best place for leaders to impel innova- context as simple, he might just have said, tion. People are more open to novelty and “Carry on,” which would have done nothing directive leadership in these situations than to reassure the community. Had he misread it they would be in other contexts. One excellent as complicated, he might have called in experts technique is to manage chaos and innovation to say it was safe—risking a loss of credibility in parallel: The minute you encounter a crisis, and trust. Instead, Gasior set up a forum appoint a reliable manager or crisis manage- for business owners, high school students, ment team to resolve the issue. At the same teachers, and parents to share concerns and time, pick out a separate team and focus its hear the facts. It was the right approach for a members on the opportunities for doing things complex context: He allowed solutions to differently. If you wait until the crisis is over, emerge from the community itself rather the chance will be gone. than trying to impose them. Leadership Across Contexts Business schools and organizations equip Good leadership requires openness to change leaders to operate in ordered domains (simple on an individual level. Truly adept leaders will and complicated), but most leaders usually know not only how to identify the context must rely on their natural capabilities when they’re working in at any given time but also operating in unordered contexts (complex and how to change their behavior and their deci- chaotic). In the face of greater complexity sions to match that context. They also prepare today, however, intuition, intellect, and cha- their organization to understand the different risma are no longer enough. Leaders need contexts and the conditions for transition be- tools and approaches to guide their firms tween them. Many leaders lead effectively— through less familiar waters. though usually in only one or two domains In the complex environment of the current (not in all of them) and few, if any, prepare business world, leaders often will be called their organizations for diverse contexts. upon to act against their instincts. They will During the Palatine murders of 1993, Deputy need to know when to share power and when Chief Gasior faced four contexts at once. He to wield it alone, when to look to the wisdom had to take immediate action via the media of the group and when to take their own to stem the tide of initial panic by keeping counsel. A deep understanding of context, the the community informed (chaotic); he had to ability to embrace complexity and paradox, help keep the department running routinely and a willingness to flexibly change leader- and according to established procedure ship style will be required for leaders who (simple); he had to call in experts (compli- want to make things happen in a time of cated); and he had to continue to calm the increasing uncertainty. community in the days and weeks following the crime (complex). That last situation Reprint R0711C proved the most challenging. Parents were To order, see the next page afraid to let their children go to school, and or call 800-988-0886 or 617-783-7500 employees were concerned about safety in or go to www.hbrreprints.org harvard business review november 2007 page 8 This document is authorized for use only by Eliza Quek ([email protected]). Copying or posting is an infringement of copyright. 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