Lesson 3: Managing Uncertainties in Innovation Written Report PDF

1 Lesson 3: Managing Uncertainties in Innovation Written Report By: Cenon, Orlando M. Franco, Dana Elaiza C. Laririt, Louise Jhayra L. Magsino, Ivanna Ashleigh B. Moreño, Roan Grace D. Pandela, Lhorend Sh...

1 Lesson 3: Managing Uncertainties in Innovation Written Report By: Cenon, Orlando M. Franco, Dana Elaiza C. Laririt, Louise Jhayra L. Magsino, Ivanna Ashleigh B. Moreño, Roan Grace D. Pandela, Lhorend Shaniah L. Torculas, Veronica Victoria T. Innovation Management October 2024 Prof. John Lester Depusoy  2 Managing Uncertainties in Innovation Introduction The concept of uncertainty is commonly recognized in the literature on innovation and entrepreneurship. Even when its significance or impacts are not well investigated, it is nevertheless accepted as true and has an impact on subjects like people's entrepreneurial activity. (e.g. Bull & Willard, 1993; McMullen & Shepherd, 2006; Blatt, 2009). The future is inherently uncertain, especially in fresh situations like innovation or the launch of new businesses, there is typically little to no historical data or experience to help with precise outcome predictions. Non-predictive strategies that can be applied to proactively manage uncertainty are therefore required. Uncertainty. Risk and uncertainty are not the same thing. Risk concerns future events for which a reasonable probability can be given. Futures for which a probability distribution cannot be established are considered uncertain. Companies are accustomed to dealing with risk since they do it on a daily basis. However, businesses frequently get immobilized in the face of uncertainty and confuse it for risk. The intricate ecosystems in which businesses function are inherently uncertain. It originates from the ever-changing needs of the consumer, from innovative technical designs and possibilities, from competitive surprises, and from changes in the political, economic, and social spheres. A company's ability to manage uncertainty and convert it into a risk that can be easily handled is essential to its future. Innovation. Innovation is the process of creating new products that people and organizations use. Since uncertainty is a result of the introduction of new artifacts, both yours and others, that change future business and human behavior, innovation is a natural strategy to manage uncertainty. A company's tool for "probing" the future and influencing it in ways that will help the firm is innovation. Therefore, through a mix of testing, learning, and influencing future behaviors, a company's own inventions offer a means to reduce uncertainty (and turn it into risk), but innovations from other individuals raise ambiguity.  3 How do you manage uncertainty in innovation? 1. Establish your strategy and goals for innovation. Before you start any innovation process, you need to have a clear understanding of your objectives and how to link your innovation efforts to your broader strategy and goals. This can be used to prioritize your resources, create realistic goals, and keep an eye on your progress and impact. You can utilize frameworks like the innovation funnel, lean startup, or design thinking methodology to assist you negotiate the different stages of innovation, from ideation to testing to scaling. 2. Accept learning and experimenting In order to be innovative, you must test your theories and learn from your mistakes. Even while there is always a chance of risk and uncertainty, they can be reduced by experimenting with different prototypes, hypotheses, and feedback loops. A/B testing, MVPs, and pilot projects are a few methods you can employ to test your concepts and get input from customers and users. Furthermore, you should foster an atmosphere that honors development and progress and views successes and failures as opportunities for growth and creativity. 3. Converse and work together Innovation is not a single undertaking, but a collaborative process. You must collaborate and communicate with your team, stakeholders, and customers to ensure that everyone is on the same page, to share ideas and opinions, and to maximize your variety of viewpoints and skill set. It is recommended that you engage and collaborate with other trailblazers, partners, and organizations to learn from their experiences, make use of their resources, and create opportunities for reciprocal gains. You can use resources like co-creation workshops, innovation hubs, and online communities to promote collaboration and teamwork.  4 Sources of Uncertainties in Innovation According to Harri Jalonen (2011), in his study “The Uncertainty of Innovation: A Systematic Review of Literature," he categorized these factors as eight-factors of uncertainty in innovation. He and his colleagues studied several articles and literature to determine these. They divided their study into two phases to provide a precise and clear classification of the uncertainty in innovation. The first phase was to study the literature individually and identify the subject matter. The second phase was to compile sources. As they finished the study, they described the uncertainties as 1.) Technological Uncertainty, 2.) Market Uncertainty, 3.) Regulatory/Institutional Uncertainty, 4.) Social/Political Uncertainty, 5.) Acceptance/Legitimacy Uncertainty, 6.) Managerial Uncertainty, 7.) Timing Uncertainty, and 8.) Consequence Uncertainty. Each of these has a substantial effect on the uncertainty faced by innovation. Technological uncertainty occurs in the context of innovation when an individual is oblivious about the details of the new technology and its application. The degree of technological novelty has defined four types of innovation: low technological uncertainty innovation, medium technological uncertainty innovation, high technological uncertainty innovation, and super-high technological uncertainty innovation. (Shenhar, A.J., Dvir, D., Shulman, Y., 1995). As the technology opens new opportunities for new innovations, it creates unfamiliar technology that can drive uncertainty to an individual. “Innovation without a market has no value.” (Jalonen, 2011) The act of innovating automatically entails the provision of solutions for the market's unmet needs and to differ from competitors. Market uncertainty exists when tackling the future market conditions: emerging technologies, empowered customers, new market entrants, shorter product life cycles, geopolitical instability, and market globalization” (Muller & Välikangas 2005). It is affiliated with the demand of innovation with regards to the behavior of competitors and needs of consumers. Regulatory or institutional uncertainty happens when an institutional framework is excessively intricate to enable innovation. On the contrary, the authors believed that this uncertainty could be seen as good for innovation. An example of this is when an author  5 discovered that an uncertain regulatory environment generates opportunities in which “the entrepreneur can create his own rules.” (Lowe, 1955) It is crucial for these firms to have their own organizational structure that aids in their innovation endeavors to eliminate uncertainty. It has concluded that "the more unknown the domain (e.g. consequences and technology) of the innovation, the more ambiguous are the regulations and, hence, the more uncertainty is felt by innovators.” (Jalonen, 2011) Social or political uncertainty is resulted from different preferences, perspective, and interest of the actors included in the firm. Interaction has a crucial role in uncertainty as it facilitates communication among various members of the organization; each individual’s opinion is affected by politics and diversity of values. Furthermore, it can be caused by unpredictable possible negative effects of innovation. (Hall and Martin, 2005) In acceptance or legitimacy uncertainty, one would feel uncertain in innovation mainly because it does not perceive the “world view” and is inadequate to the market or organizations’ norms, values, or culture. (Hurst, 1982) This happens when an innovation refutes one's perspective or jeopardizes their beliefs; therefore, it is crucial to embrace innovation as part of one's identity to eliminate uncertainty. Managerial uncertainty addresses the worry of failing and being insufficient when it comes to handling risks. Innovation is associated with taking risks and experimenting with new ideas, which causes uncertainty because one has a limited understanding of new managerial strategies. In this field, resilience is crucial, as one has to come up with different plans for dealing with potential obstacles. In addition, this uncertainty is associated with the relationships within an organization, re-electing members, and the importance of resilience. It brings failure as it creates new structures, which brings uncertainty. Timing uncertainty arises from the frequency of temporal change or the ability to respond quickly to specific situations. The researchers have concluded that time is a significant element in innovation, as it can bring success if implemented according to what is timely. Competing in this field is not a "one-time event," as one has to innovate frequently to differentiate from competitors, such as Apple, a technology company. The literature that Jalonen studied classified three kinds of time-related uncertainties. First,  6 our understanding expands as time goes by. Therefore, entering the market early increases uncertainty. Second, the uncertainty will manifest itself during the process. The individual will discover new challenges throughout the process. Lastly, it discusses the “temporal complexity.” This uncertainty suggests that there are several elements in time that should be relevant, such as timeframe, emerging gaps and pauses, timelessness, etc. Outcomes can not be predicted, it may be good or bad, and with this being said, consequence uncertainty occurs. The outcomes of the innovation will remain unpredictable, regardless of the extent of its planning. Uncertainty arises because of the inability to ascertain the potential outcomes. The studies learned that there are unwanted consequences. Rogers (2003) and Sveiby et al. (2009) determined that there are three dichotomies in the consequences of uncertainty: direct vs. indirect, desirable vs. undesirable, and anticipated vs. unanticipated consequences. Strategies for Managing Innovation Risks and Uncertainty Innovation is essential for businesses to remain competitive in constantly evolving marketplaces. However, it is primarily risky and unclear. Successful innovation outcomes depend on effective risk management. The study presents key strategies for managing innovation risks and uncertainty, based on current research. Understanding Innovation Risks Innovation risks are classified into four types: technological, market, organizational, and regulatory risks (Morris et al., 2011). Technological risks come from the potential failure of new technology, whereas market risks include concerns about client interest and market dynamics. Organizational risks concern internal capacities and resistance to change, whereas regulatory risks concern compliance with laws and regulations (Morris et al., 2011).  7 Strategies for Managing Innovation Risks: 1. Portfolio Management One effective strategy is to adopt a portfolio approach to innovation projects. By diversifying investments across various projects with differing risk profiles, organizations can mitigate the impact of individual project failures (Cooper et al., 2001). This approach allows firms to balance high-risk, high-reward projects with more stable, incremental innovations. 2. Stage-Gate Processes Implementing a stage-gate process is another strategy for managing innovation risks. This framework involves dividing the innovation process into distinct stages, with specific criteria (gates) to assess the viability of projects at each stage (Cooper, 1990). This systematic approach helps organizations make informed decisions and minimize resource wastage on unpromising projects. 3. Prototyping and Iterative Development Prototyping and iterative development are crucial for reducing uncertainty in innovation. By creating early versions of products or services, organizations can gather feedback, make adjustments, and test assumptions before full-scale development (Ries, 2011). This strategy not only reduces technical risks but also enhances market alignment by incorporating customer feedback. 4. Collaboration and Open Innovation Engaging in collaboration and open innovation can help organizations manage external uncertainties. By partnering with other firms, universities, or research institutions, organizations can share risks and access new ideas and technologies (Chesbrough, 2003). This collaborative approach can lead to more robust innovations and reduce the likelihood of failure.  8 5. Scenario Planning Scenario planning is a strategic tool that helps organizations prepare for uncertain futures by exploring various potential scenarios (Schoemaker, 1995). By considering different market conditions and technological advancements, organizations can develop flexible strategies that are better equipped to handle uncertainty. 6. Continuous Learning and Adaptation Finally, fostering a culture of continuous learning and adaptation is vital for managing innovation risks. Organizations should encourage experimentation and view failures as learning opportunities. This mindset promotes agility and resilience in the face of uncertainty (Senge, 1990). Conclusion Managing innovation risks and uncertainty is critical for organizational success in today’s dynamic environment. By employing strategies such as portfolio management, stage-gate processes, prototyping, collaboration, scenario planning, and fostering a culture of learning, organizations can enhance their ability to innovate effectively. Advantages of new prospects, dangers and increase your desire for innovation As the electrical power crisis deepens, more companies are being affected by problems, as shown by the shortages that are currently affecting the retail, auto, and consumer goods sectors. On the other hand, organizations can weather chaos if their business strategies take into account the potential risks of today, such as rebuilding production or expanding into digital goods. Some examples of risk and advantages of innovation: 1. Competitive Advantage - Development of a competitive advantage is a process in which one provides fresh and innovative products or services that make a business to  9 be noticed and stand apart from other businesses. It makes organizations acquire customers, enlarge their market share, and keep them safe from rivals. 2. Higher Productivity - Companies and industries have seen an increase in productivity that is mainly related to the performance, economic growth, profit, and efficiency elements. 3. Improved Customer Experience - Customer experience, also known as CX, is the overall rating customers provide based on their interaction and engagement with the company or the brand. Some examples of risk and disadvantages of innovation: 1. High Expenses - Most times, Innovative projects seem to be expensive to develop, or to research. You might fail because not all creative ideas find the right platform. 2. Reluctance to Change - Stakeholders, clients, and workers may resist innovation as it challenges primary operating ways and habits. This is indeed a difficult situation to brainstorm in. People hate any change, as they are afraid to fail and use new technologies that are different from their point of view, so it is hard to find the correct way to think creatively and come up with logical answers. 3. Implications for Ethics and Society - Many innovations can bring up ethical implications or have unexpected social effects. For instance, technological advancements and adaptive machinery may potentially result in lesser job security for workers or violate the privacy of individuals. Agile and Lean Innovation Approaches Agile Innovation Agile Innovation is transforming how companies develop new products and services that enhance flexibility, efficiency, and customer-centricity in many ways. This will help your business to stay afloat in a rapidly changing competitive world.  10 Key Principles of Agile Innovation Iterative Development Iterative development allows the teams to try and test multiple new ideas or create small changes for the development of a product. This is like an update for the service and product of the business. Customer-Centric Approach Based on the name of the approach, this very much involves customers. They gather the customers' feedback and consider them to make their final product or service to meet the needs and expectations of the customers. Flexibility and Adaptability Agile Innovation also thrives on flexibility and adaptability. In this competitive world we entrepreneurs should make ways to adapt quickly to stay relevant. In that case, not only should the products be flexible, but workers in your business should also be flexible and embrace changes so that they can adapt quickly, in that way your company will be successful in the long run. Preparation and Planning - Setting Clear Goals and Objectives The first and most important step in implementing agile innovation is setting clear and measurable goals. A team should know where they’re headed and have the same success goal for the business. When the team understands the goals, they can stay focused, work more effectively, and make sure that all their efforts are moving in the right direction, aligned with the overall vision of the company. - Building a Cross-functional Team Cross-functional Collaboration is very important when it comes to Agile Innovation which means that teams should consist of members from various departments from  11 marketing, design, and development. This variety of expertise helps to ensure the product meets multiple business and customer needs from the outset. Implementing Agile Innovation - Scrum Scrum breaks down a project into smaller and manageable runs. This type of method usually lasts two to four weeks. In general, the scrum method usually holds a daily stand-up meeting in order to discuss progress, find solutions to certain issues and plan daily duties. Every end of tasks, a meeting is then upheld to discuss progress and gather feedback. - Kanban The central point of "Kanban" is to visualize the workflow and manage tasks using a Kanban board. This method makes use of cards to represent stages of a task such as "To do", "In Progress", and "Done". Utilizing this method guides the team to identify bottlenecks and improve their work process for a better and efficient workflow. - Lean Startup This methodology highlights the creation of an "MVP" which means a minimum viable product. We use this method repeatedly based on the user feedback and experience. Using the Lean startup method ensures that waste can be minimized and that the resources are used for the upgrades and overall betterment of a certain product. With this, we can provide real value to the customers. Examples: Spotify - they continuously develop, test, and improve features based on feedback from customers, this allows the company to stay afloat and stand out in a competitive streaming industry. Apple - applies iterative design development and rapid prototyping. They focus on cross-functional collaborations to check flaws before launch and do software updates to enhance the customer’s experience. Amazon - amazon also applies iterative development and customer-centric approach with continuous updates that will base on customer’s data to improve their experience.  12 Lean innovation “Lean innovation is focused on increasing efficiency by capturing customer feedback early and often and minimizing waste in the product development cycle. The process prioritizes experimentation over elaborate planning, and celebrates continuous, incremental improvement.” (Joubert, 2023) Lean Innovation evolved from its manufacturing origins in the Toyota Production System to a broader management framework applied to innovation and entrepreneurship. It emphasizes creating value for the customer while eliminating waste. The goal is to deliver value quickly, continuously improve, and avoid anything that does not add value to the customer. Lean is often applied in innovation and product development to streamline processes, minimize risks, and optimize resources. Lean Innovation is a powerful tool in today’s fast-paced, uncertain business environments. Its principles have become essential in managing the complexities and risks inherent in modern innovation efforts. Five fundamental ideas that were modified from Lean Manufacturing to better support innovation and product development form the foundation of Lean Innovation. By reducing waste, increasing productivity, and focusing on consumer value, these recommendations aim to make innovation more efficient. The guiding principles are: 1. Specify Value Value is what the customer is willing to pay for. It is paramount to discover the actual or latent needs of the customer. Sometimes customers may not know what they want or are unable to articulate it. There are many techniques such as interviews, surveys, demographic information, and web analytics that can help you decipher and discover what customers find valuable (The Five Principles of Lean, n.d). Determining the value you wish to provide for the consumer is therefore crucial. Examples: Example 1: Tesla Motors  13 By emphasizing high-performance electric vehicles (EVs) and environmentally friendly mobility, Tesla revolutionized the automobile industry's definition of value. Environmentally friendly vehicles with excellent performance, modern technology, and an exceptional driving experience are what Tesla determined to be valuable to its customers. Tesla focused on performance, luxury, and convenience in their innovation process because the firm recognized that consumers appreciated these features in addition to EVs' lower environmental effect. (Source: Tesla) Example 2: IKEA IKEA defines customer value as furniture that is reasonably priced, fashionable, and simple to assemble. Through its emphasis on self-assembly, flat-pack packaging, and effective retail designs, IKEA provides products that satisfy consumers on a budget without sacrificing style. The company is able to build and produce products that meet both practical and aesthetic standards at a competitive price because of its deep understanding of what customers value. (Source: IKEA Museum) 2. Map the Value Stream This second lean concept involves literally mapping your company's operations in order to discover and map the value stream. The objective of this stage is to determine all the actions that contribute to the customer's values by using those values as a point of reference. Waste is defined as any activity that does not benefit the final consumer. (Pspo, 2021). Businesses will be able to address client demands more effectively and reduce costs by getting rid of wasteful and unnecessary waste materials. Examples: Example 1: Nike Nike optimizes its production process using value stream mapping, particularly in light of its goal to increase sustainability. From the procurement of raw materials to the delivery of the finished product, the company has mapped every stage of its product lifecycle to find wasteful practices and areas where environmental  14 impact can be decreased. Nike has reduced water use, decreased waste, and increased the amount of recycled content in its goods by examining every stage of the process. This supports Nike's environmental sustainability objectives while streamlining the supply chain. (Source: Nike) Example 2: Starbucks Starbucks employs Value Stream Mapping (VSM) to enhance its coffee supply chain, ensuring quality and sustainability from bean to cup. The business plans each stage of the process, from purchasing coffee beans from growers to roasting, packing, and selling the coffee at retail establishments. Through this data, Starbucks is able to pinpoint opportunities for waste reduction, such cutting down on transit times or enhancing inventory control. By mapping the value chain, for example, Starbucks can reduce the carbon footprint associated with transportation while streamlining its roasting process to guarantee that coffee is available and fresh for its locations. In addition to increasing operational effectiveness, this ongoing development supports Starbucks' dedication to sustainability and premium goods. (Source: Investopedia) 3. Create Flow One of the most important ideas in the Lean world is flow. When designing a flow of value, you want to make sure that everything runs smoothly from the time you receive an order until you deliver it to the consumer because waiting of any type is a waste. (The 5 Lean Principles: Reduce Waste and Drive Growth, n.d). Breaking down steps, rearranging production steps, balancing the workload, establishing cross-functional departments, and preparing staff to be multi-skilled and adaptable when delivering it to the customer are some strategies for making sure value-adding activities go smoothly. (The Five Principles of Lean, n.d.-b). Examples: Example 1: Zara New designs can go from the sketch to the store shelves in a matter of weeks because of Zara's well-known ability to create flow in its fast fashion business  15 model. Zara minimizes delays and keeps up with evolving fashion trends by combining its design, manufacturing, and distribution processes to guarantee a steady supply of products. This quick reaction to consumer requests reduces superfluous inventory while keeping Zara's shelves supplied with the newest styles. (Source: Strategyzer) Example 2: Toyota Toyota developed a smooth production process flow with its Toyota Production System (TPS). This required making sure that production never stopped or slowed down needlessly. Every stage of the assembly line was designed to run smoothly from one stage to the next, cutting down on downtime and boosting productivity. Compared to conventional batch manufacturing methods, this "flow" allowed Toyota to make cars at lower costs and with fewer delays. 4. Establish Pull A pull system involves creating output based on actual demand for a product, instead of relying on forecasts. For flow to operate smoothly, things should not be manufactured ahead of time because, if unused, this creates waste (The 5 Principles of Lean Management | AHDB, n.d). The ultimate goal is to create products exactly when they are needed, in the required quantity, and delivered 'just in time.' It optimizes resource capacity and helps organizations ensure that the products they create will satisfy customers' needs while also reducing waste. (Verma, 2023) Examples: Example 1: Dell One well-known illustration of the established pull concept in action is Dell's build-to-order manufacturing strategy. Dell waits for customers to place specific orders before building computers rather than making them in large quantities and keeping them in storage. With this strategy, Dell is able to tailor each PC to the buyer's requirements, including those related to processing speed, memory, and storage capacity. Dell improves customer happiness with customized solutions  16 and lowers excess inventory and related carrying costs by adjusting production in response to actual customer demand. In addition to optimizing resource usage, this lean methodology helps Dell promptly adjust to shifting consumer demands. (Source: Dell) Example 2: Amazon Since Amazon's fulfillment centers are based on consumer demand, they are prime examples of the established pull principle. The fulfillment system ensures that products are only picked, packed, and dispatched when necessary by collecting the specified items from inventory when a client puts an order. This model lowers storage expenses and decreases superfluous inventory. Amazon uses real-time data analytics to predict customer demand, which enables quicker order fulfillment and effective inventory management. Amazon is able to quickly adjust to shifting consumer tastes by closely matching production and distribution to actual customer orders. (Source: Amazon) 5. Pursue Perfection (Kaizen) The first four steps will help you create a Lean management system, but the final step helps you to continuously improve and grow. There is a cyclical nature to the five core Lean concepts. In your pursuit of excellence, you constantly evaluate each procedure for value growth, concentrating on the components that contribute value and getting rid of those that don't. Continuous improvement is the result of striving for perfection. (The 5 Principles of Lean Management | AHDB, n.d.-c). Based on this theory, both the finished product and the production processes must be continuously improved. It's a mindset of steady, incremental growth. Learning project management requires an understanding of this ongoing improvement, which is also known by the Japanese name kaizen. Examples: Example 1: Toyota  17 Toyota is a prime example of the pursuit of perfection when it comes to its dedication to Kaizen, or "continuous improvement." This attitude encourages all employees, regardless of role, to find inefficiencies and suggest improvements in their workplace. For example, a worker on the production line has the power to stop the assembly process if they observe a flaw in a car. This prompt action promotes a culture of accountability and ongoing learning while enabling a speedy resolution of the problem. Furthermore, cross-functional teams gather at Toyota's regular "kaizen events" to examine workflows, get rid of waste, and improve procedures. Toyota's reputation as a leader in the automotive industry is a result of its unwavering pursuit of excellence, which also increases operational efficiency and improves product quality. (Source: Toyota) Example 2: Nestle With its strong Quality Management System (QMS), which is applied to all of its product lines, Nestlé consistently strives for excellence. Enhancing food safety, nutritional value, and overall product quality are the company's main priorities. From locating raw materials to delivering the finished product, Nestlé's QMS makes sure that every step is optimized for effectiveness and quality. Nestlé, for example, has worked hard to improve its procedures in order to raise sustainability, lower waste, and improve food safety standards. This unwavering pursuit of excellence helps the business to satisfy the strictest international standards for food safety and quality, guaranteeing the confidence and contentment of its customers everywhere. (Source: Nestle)  18 REFERENCES Apple's Product Development Process – Inside the World's Greatest Design Organization. (2023, December 15). 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