TECH 4010 Assessing Technology - Module 1 PDF

TECH - 4010 Assessing Technology – Module 1 Week 1 – Module 1 Introduction Welcome to the first Module. Assessing the implementation of a new technology is an activity that we have all been involved at some stages in our lives and possibly conduct on a daily basis. Technology changes our lives...

TECH - 4010 Assessing Technology – Module 1 Week 1 – Module 1 Introduction Welcome to the first Module. Assessing the implementation of a new technology is an activity that we have all been involved at some stages in our lives and possibly conduct on a daily basis. Technology changes our lives in our personal, work and social environments. We surround ourselves with new technologies every day to enhance and improve our way of life. Technologies such as the latest smart phone technology, wireless internet, a new type of dishwashing detergent for cleaner glasses or even new grass seeds we place on our lawn that are weather retardant are all new technologies that we might assess and implement in our personal environment. Implementing new technologies in the work environment can also be for a number of reasons. New technologies are required to maintain a competitive edge, increase revenue or to improve operational efficiency. New technologies are being implemented at a rapid pace into our society as well such as social media, the internet, green energy and even new recycling programs. Whenever a new technology is implemented, there is corresponding impact resulting from the change they introduce to our surrounding environment, be it social, personal or work. Some impacts are good and provide a positive result, whether it optimizes your work processes, increases revenue or cleans those cloudy drinking glasses better and/or faster. Some impacts are negative and may have the opposite effects you were trying to accomplish, making you less efficient at work, reducing company revenue or making your drinking glasses cloudier than ever. We have all experienced the negative impacts of technology in our lives by the decisions we have made. Regardless of the impact, once new technologies are implemented they have to be managed by someone (you) and will affect work, society or personal environments. The key to implementing any new technology is ultimately achieving the desired result we want from its adaptation. Therefore assessing technology before they are implemented is critical in the implementation process. Technology assessment is a process and one that can be applied to any technology regardless of industry or its application. Before one can embark on the how to conduct a technology assessment, we must first understand the what and why. What is a technology, what drives technology innovation and why does one want to implement a new technology? As mentioned, technology assessment is a vast and complicated process. This course and material will focus towards the technology managers as the primary audience. The processes talked about in this course can be applied to any situation, however for the purpose of this course, it will focus purely around implementing technology in an industry setting and the towards the technology managers who ultimately manage the technology. This module is broken into two lessons and focuses on the fundamentals of technology. Lesson 1 focuses on the what of technology assessments. This lesson will discuss definitions of what technology is and introduce the principles around technology innovation and how this drives technology. Lesson 2 then focuses on the why of technology assessments. Lesson 2 will introduce you to the Strategic Management of technology and how this relates to the ultimate positioning of technology to meet the strategic goals and objectives of an organization. You as 1|Page  TECH - 4010 Assessing Technology – Module 1 technology managers must have a clear vision of where your technologies strategically fit within your work environment. Technology assessment must have a reason for being conducted, understanding why they are required and how they fit into an organization is crucial before any assessment or selection of technology can occur. The later modules in the course will then focus on the how. Course readings for this module will be covered by reading the posted notes within the course shell, Chapters 1 and 3 of the optional text book, articles, and online videos. At the end of the module, students will be required to produce a memo indicating a technology to assess and several discussion questions. Each student is required to post a response to all discussion questions and to reply to at least one other student’s post. Also there is more information on the memo the students are required to complete within the course shell. Module 1: Lesson Plan Week 1: Introduction of instructor and students Introduction of the course evaluation Introduction of module 1 of the course Week 2: Lesson 1 Technology and Innovation (Course notes and indicated articles, optional Chapter 1 from Braun) Complete all discussions assigned by the instructor for module 1 Week 3: Lesson 2 Strategic Management of Technology (Course notes and indicated articles, optional Chapter 3 from Braun) Complete all discussions assigned by the instructor for module 2 Module 1 Assignment: Selection of a Technology to Assess (Memo assignment worth 10%) 2|Page  TECH - 4010 Assessing Technology – Module 1 Week 2 – Lesson 1 –Technology and Innovation Welcome to lesson one. Technology Managers are the heart to managing technologies within industry. Implementing new technologies can be an interesting and challenging part of a technology manager’s position and an important aspect of an organization’s success. New technologies are implemented through a number of mechanisms, generally delivered as a result of projects, and managed through formal Project Management. Assessing technologies prior to their implementation is a very important stage that generally occurs within an organization before adopting any new technology. Any project that implements a new technology has normally been through some form of technology assessment. Most organizations have a very formal technology delivery process that usually includes; inception, assessment, delivery, management, and then disposal/replacement (as per figure 1, below). Delivery of new technologies is an iterative processes within an organization and one which technology managers are closely involved with through all stages. Engineers, programmers and scientists develop new technologies, however you as a technology manager are involved in all stages of the process to implement new technologies from their inception to their disposal. Figure 1 –Technology Delivery Process 3|Page  TECH - 4010 Assessing Technology – Module 1 The function of technology management is often overlooked once technologies are implemented. Too often organizations place too much time focused on the implementation of technologies rather than their management. It is not until technology is actually implemented before an organization can actually understand its benefit or the economic value. Therefore the role of the technology manager is extremely important within any organization, to ensure these values can be realized. It is important the Technology Manager understand the importance of the technology assessment process and understand its importance in all stages of the technology delivery process. Braun explains the importance of Technology Manager’s at the onset of his book. He differentiates the role of Engineers/Scientists to Technology Managers giving a clear line in the sand. Engineer's/Scientist's design, develop technologies to give an organization the opportunity to benefit from a technology, while the technology manager’s role is based around reaping the benefits of a technology and to realize the benefits of a technology. You as a technology manager are the engine driving the use of technology, therefore understanding all aspects of what technology is and how it is implemented is critical to any organization. Defining Technology: Before one starts to delve into understanding what technology assessments are and the processes behind them, it is important to understand and define what technology actually is and what drives technology. The majority of us tend to think we understand what technology is. We instantly think of products such as new smart phones, tablets, flat screen TVs and/or the internet. These are technologies; however technology is a very broad field and encompasses a vast amount of different products, processes and solutions. The more one understands what technology is and what drives technology development, the more one realizes most people do not understand what technology is. Defining technology enables you to set boundaries that will allow you to conduct an assessment and broaden your understanding of where technology fits into this vast field. Whether the technology is a product from a manufacturing process or it is new technology used in the manufacturing process. There are many definitions of what technology is. A definition of technology among academic critics is, according to Bush: “Technology is a form of human cultural activity that applies the principles of science and mechanics to the solution of problems. It includes the resources, tools, processes, personnel, and systems developed to perform tasks and create immediate particular, and personal and/or competitive advantages in a given ecological, economic, and social context.” Bush, C. L. (1981). Taking hold of technology: Topic guide for 1981–1983. Washington, DC: American Association of University Women. 4|Page  TECH - 4010 Assessing Technology – Module 1 Braun's definition of technology is broader, and he states that: “technology is the way and means by which humans produce purposeful material artifacts and effects” or “the material artifacts used to achieve some practical human purpose and knowledge needed to produce and operate such artifacts”. Braun’s definitions initially seem a little confusing, however, this course will help you understand Braun’s perspective of what technology is. Technology Innovation: One truth about technology, is that it is constantly changing. Braun discusses two major forces driving technology towards change; improvement (as nothing is perfect) and economic. The two directions for technology changes are for improved performance or meeting the ever the increasing strive for excellence by humans. As a technology manager, you must maintain your knowledge of the latest innovations in your field of expertise. Maintaining this knowledge ensures your technologies are optimized for the organization’s needs and that if you are assessing new technologies you are up to date with the latest technology trends. Braun also states that Freeman and Perez (1988) have identified there are four basic forms, or classifications, of technological innovation. These classifications of innovation include: incremental innovations; radical innovations; technology system innovations; and the techno- economic paradigm. Incremental innovations are innovations in products or process that consists of relatively small changes in the technology and are usually considered as a re-design of and existing technology. Radical innovations, however, consists of greater leaps in the product or process technology and usually are the result of research and development (R&D). Even larger innovative changes in technology that can cause managerial and organization change is referred to as a technology system innovations. Finally, extremely larger changes in technology that can affect entire economies is called the techno-economic paradigm innovations. You can read more on what Freeman and Perez had to say on the various form of innovations by clicking on the link below, or by accessing the article under the “Freeman and Perez Article” link within the Module 1 course material. When you are finished reading this article, try to determine your own examples of for each form of innovation discussed. Freeman and Perez article 5|Page  TECH - 4010 Assessing Technology – Module 1 Week 3 – Lesson 2 – Strategic Management of Technology Welcome to lesson two. The late Peter Drucker (1909 – 2005) who is recognized widely as the Father of Modern Management had many insightful ideas and concepts of business and its role as an institution of society. He held that managers are the basic resource of the organization, and a primary function and responsibility of management is strategic planning. One area that Drucker did not focus too much on was the role of technology and technology managers have in an organization to support and achieve their strategic goals and objectives. There are two main elements of an organization’s Strategy, Strategic Planning and the Strategic Plan document. Strategic planning is an organizational management activity that is used to set priorities, focus energy and resources, strengthen operations, ensure that employees and other stakeholders are working toward common goals, establish agreement around intended outcomes/results, and assess and adjust the organization's direction in response to a changing environment. It is a disciplined effort that produces fundamental decisions and actions that shape and guide what an organization is, who it serves, what it does, and why it does it, with a focus on the future. Effective strategic planning articulates not only where an organization is going and the actions needed to make progress, but also how it will know if it is successful. The strategic plan is a result of the strategic planning activity and a core document for an organization’s focus to make business decisions and provide direction to employees. It is also the CEO’s (or equivalent executives) tool to communicate the organization mission, values and long term objectives/goals. The strategic plan not only comprises of a company's mission, values, goals and objectives, it also lays out a broad plan of where the current organization is and where it wants to go. The plan also provides a detailed action plan, how to achieve the goals and the resources assigned to the plan. Management tends to overlook the importance Technology Managers have in the Strategic Planning process and place their importance on assuming the relevant technology will be implemented as part of the Strategic Plan. Technology Managers are crucial not only in the delivery and support of technology, but during the entire Strategic Planning process (and the plan itself). Most forward thinking companies assign a Chief Technology Officer (CTO) as the primary Technology Manager responsible for laying out a Technology strategy/plan to deliver the technology requirements of a Strategic Plan. Technology assessment becomes part of the strategic planning process and of the implementation of an organization's strategy. The Technology Manager must fully understand their role of implementing and assessing technologies to fulfill the strategic objectives of their organization. Technology assessment is the vehicle to deliver technologies for a company's strategic plan. The importance of this activity and its relationship to an organization’s Strategy is key for success in any company regardless of industry. 6|Page  TECH - 4010 Assessing Technology – Module 1 Strategic Management of Technology is concerned with the management of technology to fit within the Strategic Plan. This is a very vast subject and will be discussed in more detail throughout the required course reading. More information on the Strategic Plan and the role technology and the technology manager have in the process will be covered in the course textbook. The following article explains the key concepts in strategic management; strategic vision, objectives, strategy formulation, strategy implementation, evaluation and initiating corrective action. This article should better prepare the student in completing assignment 1. The Importance of Strategic Management to Business Organizations by Julius Tapera Assignment 1: You now have the required information to complete the first assignment, the memo assignment. Please refer to the course calendar/course plan to determine the due date for assignment 1 and refer to the marking rubric to ensure all components of this assessment are completed before you pass in the assignment. 7|Page  TECH – 4010 Assessing Technology – Module 2 Week 4 – Module 2 Introduction Welcome to module two. In module one we introduced fundamental principles you must understand before embarking on conducting a technology assessment. It introduced the what and why of technology assessments. What is technology and why are we assess a technology before its implementation were topics introduced in module 1. In module 2, we introduce the principles and methodologies behind planning of a technology assessment, the how. Once you have selected a technology to assess you need to put together a plan on how you will conduct the assessment. Module two is all about the planning considerations behind accomplishing a technology assessment. Ultimately, in this module you will develop a Technology Assessment Plan, this will detail exactly how the technology will be assessed, its scope and key resources and other important considerations. Lesson 3 briefly introduces what a technology assessment scope is and what the scope includes. This is an important topic as it starts to pull together what is in and out of a scope statement of the technology assessment (hint for assignment 2, make sure you include what is in and out of scope for your technology assessment). Lesson 4 will then focus on the planning considerations for the technology assessment. The lesson will present Braun's 5 step methodology for conducting a technology assessment, which will be the main focus of assignment 2. There is also some course notes outlining all the elements you must consider when planning a technology assessment. In assignment 2 you will be asked to develop a technology assessment plan for your selected technology from assignment 1. Lesson 5 will then introduce methods for analyzing alternative technologies. Alternatives are always analyzed throughout all stages of the technology assessment process. Lesson 5 will introduce methods to assess alternative technologies during the planning process and during the technology assessment itself. Lesson 6 will then look at contemporary problems faced by technology assessments. At the onset of planning a technology assessment, we sometime get focused on selecting a technology even before we have fully understood what technology we need. The module 2 assignment is to develop a technology assessment plan, very similar to that of project management plan. During this module I will present different analysis methods you can utilize in assignment 2. 1|Page  TECH – 4010 Assessing Technology – Module 2 Module 2: Lesson Plan Week 4: Module 2 – Introduction Lesson 3 What is a Technology Assessment? Week 5: Lesson 4 Methodology for a Technology Assessment Lesson Week 6: Lesson 5 Alternative Evaluation and Generation (on line Course Notes Only) Week 7: Lesson 6 Contemporary Problems with Technology Module 2 Assignment TA Plan (15%) Week 4 – Lesson 3 – What is Technology Assessment? Welcome to lesson three. We now start to get into the heart of technology assessment, what it means and its purpose. This lesson is relatively short in order to give you time to prepare for your second assignment, however is important to understand the scope of technology assessment. As indicated by Braun, Technology Assessment in its most general terms is the means of evaluating a particular technology or in a particular way for which it is used. This context is different from evaluating technology which is subjective and philosophical. Technology Assessment (TA) rather focuses toward evaluating a specific technology for its intended purposed and that can be measured in some way. Braun is very focused on specifics and avoids being too general, which is one of the key requirements of a technology assessment, be specific and avoid being too subjective. Most people tend to view narrowly of what technology assessment is and this tends to focus on how the technology (or product) will fulfill its purpose rather than its boarder impacts and side- effects. For example, if one was to assess a new type of arc welding technology. Most would focus on assessing the technical results of the technology, how strong will the weld hold, the material it is made of, adhesion to metals, chemical compounds, etc. This is important to ensure if the technology is “fit-for-purpose” and meets all technical requirements. However, one must assess the full effect the technology has on broader organization and the 2|Page  TECH – 4010 Assessing Technology – Module 2 environmental issues surrounding the technology for which it operates in. Side effects on the product (such as reputation or innovations), the workforce (such as training or special skills required), the organizational environment (such as structure or financial) and the wider environment (such as political or public opinion) must be fully considered during an assessment. During the assessment process, one must avoid selecting a technology totally on technical merit as this will increases the risk of its non-successful implementation. Incorporating non- technical merit into an assessment is often overlooked and important to be fully understood by the technology manager. Experience in the technology and experience within an organization is critical for those that lead technology assessments. The more important the assessment the more experience the lead should have. Braun defines technology assessment as: “a systemic approach to for-see the consequences of introducing a particular technology in all sphere it is likely to interact with”. Again there are endless definitions of what technology assessment is, however this one is broad enough for the purpose of understanding how involved technology assessments are, it must consider all possible consequences for the implementation of a technology. It is interesting to read the rise and fall of the US Office of Technology (OTA). How the concerns raised by the US public not fully understanding the benefit verses the downsides of implementing new technologies. It became such a politically important issue, the US congress created a bill to raise the OTA. The OTA mandate was to develop an interdisciplinary organization that was to produce future oriented advice on the full spectrum of consequences of the application of technology. In reality no one can fully predict all the future effects a technology implementation will have. However with proper scientific rigor by the appropriate experts, the risk could be mitigated. This is one of the key requirements why we do a technology assessment, risk mitigation for decision makers. The topic of what technology assessment is, can be very subjective and has different meaning to different organizations and industries. How an organization conducts a TA will invariably be different based on the industry and technology. However, the purpose and trying to predict the future effects outside of the technical merits must be considered and tailored to the purpose of the assessment. Now we have a very broad understanding of what technology assessment is, the next lesson will start to introduce the methodology behind a TA. 3|Page  TECH – 4010 Assessing Technology – Module 2 Week 5 – Lesson 4 – Step One: Technology Assessment Methodology/Planning Welcome to Lesson 4. This lesson will cover the planning aspects required to conduct a technology assessment. Majority of technology assessment fail to meet its intended purpose due to poor planning. As the assessor it is important you develop a robust plan prior to conducting the assessment itself. Planning aspects such as resource management, scheduling, risk management etc. will be covered in this lesson. The course reading and attached notes will cover the topics of methodology and planning in more detail. The methodology and planning should be tailored to your specific TA and the processes can be applied to any type of TA. Make sure you read Braun and the attached notes as this is the key requirements for assignment 2. You must cover these topics in assignment, remember assignment 2 is a plan, not an assessment! A simple and realistic assessment and planning article by Bocklund and Hinton. Week 5 – Lesson 4 – Extended Notes Make sure you have read the course readings including the five major steps when conducting a Technology Assessment, as outlined below. The five steps are: Step 1: Topic, scope and time Step 2: Technology Description Step 3: Core Questions Step 4: Unwanted Effects or Hazards from Technology Step 5: Analysis of Policy Options Braun’s basic methodology can be summed up as STIP: Scope, Technology, Impacts and Policy. Braun tells you what needs to be done, but not how or how to plan an assessment. Step 1, Step 2 and part of Step 3 can be viewed as planning stages of the technology assessment. These additional notes will go through some of the planning considerations required for planning a technology assessment. A technology assessment can be an expensive undertaking, particularly where the technology is a major project rather than a product. Large-scale assessments may also include several inter-related stages and personnel teams. The cost and complexity of the assessment should encourage the assessor to take a systematic and planned approach to the study. Planning the assessment will help the assessor to ensure that: 1. The assessment is effective in meeting its goals; 2. The assessment and subsequent activities proceed on schedule; 3. The costs of conducting the assessment are established in advance and are not exceeded. 4|Page  TECH – 4010 Assessing Technology – Module 2 Planning Work Tasks: The general tasks required in planning for the assessment include the following which should be completed in the following order: 1. Identify the goals of the assessment; 2. Identify the major issues in the assessment; 3. Decide the scope, or level of effort, to be applied to the assessment; 4. Develop a product/project description, with alternatives; 5. Consider the major ancillary projects, if any; 6. Develop an Assessment Report format; 7. Organize the project team; and develop a schedule and control system for the assessment. Identification Of The Goals Of The Assessment: This is a repeat of lesson 2 and the first assignment. The major technical goals for an assessment may be issued by an organization where a major project is being considered or from the organization’s strategic goals. The organization may issue both general and project- specific guidelines that come ultimately from the corporate strategic plan. The assessor, alternatively, may be responsible for developing the goals in product development or for smaller projects. In any of the cases described above, the assessor must also identify other assessment goals, including the following (from Curtis, 1997): a) Target completion date for the assessment, considering: i. Project schedules ii. Regulatory requirements iii. Seasonal requirements for data gathering, where applicable b) Approach to the assessment with respect to: i. The assessor's corporate policies and procedures ii. Cost of the assessment iii. Scope of the assessment c) Technical goals, other than those set by the organization. 5|Page  TECH – 4010 Assessing Technology – Module 2 Identification Of The Major Issues In The Assessment: The identification of the major assessment issues and risks is one of the most important exercises in the planning process. It prevents unexpected delays, conflicts and extra costs. As described above, the assessor, an organization, or both may identify the issues. The identification should be aided by internal consultation, research, and contact with the general public including governmental officials, where applicable. Issue and risk identification is not confined to the preliminary stage of the assessment it should be an ongoing activity. The assessor should continually incorporate feedback from the assessment process into the overall plan to ensure that all relevant issues are being addressed. A risk matrix identifying all of the risks must be part of the plan. Risks, including impacts and likelihoods should be tabulated in the plan. An example of a risk matrix is demonstrated below. Once you have identified risks, you then need to be able to determine the impact of risk. Two common methods include a qualitative and quantitative methods. The qualitative method involves taking the best analysis on the likelihood and consequence of each identified risks. This method usually uses a risk Impact Matrix and a suggested process for risk/issue analysis is as follows: 1. Complete Risk Impact Matrix – this is to define the impact. 2. For Each Risk identified assign an impact based on the impact matrix below. For example, technology may affect Human health, likelihood is rare and consequence is major, therefore this is a medium risk. You must be able to justify your choices. 3. Once completed rank all of your risks in a table with their impact. For the above example, the risk of human health may have an impact of customer confidence in the product and reduced sales. More on the identification of issues/risks will be covered in Module 3 and lesson 6, however the major issues/risks need to be identified in the planning process. 6|Page  TECH – 4010 Assessing Technology – Module 2 Deciding On The Scope (And Level Of Effort) For The Assessment: The scope of an assessment will be defined in part through the establishment of the goals noted in the previous section. The assessor must define each of the following items for each section of the assessment before detailed work can begin: The technical requirements and subject areas to be investigated - listed in detail; The depth to which each subject area shall be investigated; The report format, and the depth of detail in reporting; The length of investigation and completion date(s) with respect to other assessment work; The cost of individual sub-studies, as applicable; and The cost of recommendations from individual sub-studies, as applicable. Development Of A Technology Description With Technical Alternatives: The assessment team must produce a technology description before the assessment is commenced. The depth of the description required at progressive stages are: A brief product/project overview to determine the type of assessment that is required. This overview is often submitted to regulatory agencies to determine if the assessment must comply with particular legislation. A description of alternatives considered, including those rejected and those still under active consideration. The list of alternatives will help personnel to understand the advantages/disadvantages of the technology that is being assessed. The generation of product and project alternatives is discussed in greater detail in Module 3 of this course. A detailed assessment-oriented project description which includes pollution control plans as well as details of anticipated pollution disturbances and other outputs to the environment. Curtis, 1987 reports that two to six months are typically required to complete a final detailed assessment project description but new project alternatives may be developed throughout the assessment. Consideration Of Major Ancillary Facilities: The technology description for a project should include any major ancillary projects. For example, the development of a manufacturing facility may include the development of one or more ancillary projects, such as the construction of a new access road. Planning may require discussions with an organization to determine: If ancillaries are considered significant and therefore warrant an individual assessment; The depth of assessment is considered necessary for each ancillary. These ancillary projects may require the assessor to conduct separate goals identification, scope definition, technology description and alternatives generation. It is preferable that all ancillary assessments be included with the main assessment report submission. It may, in fact, be a government requirement for some projects. 7|Page  TECH – 4010 Assessing Technology – Module 2 Failure to consider ancillary projects at an early stage in the assessment may lead to delays. The assessor is therefore encouraged to pursue the matter of ancillary projects from the outset of the assessment. Development Of An Assessment Report Format: Research is the basis of all effective assessment reports. However, the research may be wasted if it is not presented in a logical, clear and understandable manner. It is therefore important carefully plan of the report format. A typical Assessment Report may include the following headings: 1. Introduction 1.1 Identification of the Assessor and Product/Project 1.2 Organization of the Document 2. Assessment Methodology 3. Product/Project Description 3.1 Product/Project Rationale or Need 3.2 Product/Project Alternatives 3.3 Applicable Legislation and Permits 3.4 Detailed Project Description 4. Risks and Issues (Risk Matrix) 5. Existing Physical Environment (where applicable) 6. Existing Social and Economic Environment 7. Impact on Physical Environment (where applicable) 8. Impact on Social and Economic Environment 9. Public Consultation Appendix - List of Supporting Documents Organization Of The Assessment Team - Duties Of The Project Coordinator: The Team coordinator is responsible for selecting and assembling the assessment team. Different specialty area sub-groups, each comprising of one or more people, make up the team. The selection of the sub-groups will depend on the nature of the proposal and upon the existing resources of the assessor's organization. As a first step, the Team Coordinator must enlist a leader and other project development group staff to develop the detailed project description. Staff will be required to prepare the assessment summary report and any special reports, such as the Executive Summary. Other assessor staff, required on a part-time basis, may include personnel from the: Accounting Department; Purchasing Department - required if any assessment work is to be done by groups other than the assessor; Review Groups, including: Legal Department (for the decision about whether or not to proceed with an assessment, review of final assessment text, and negotiation of responsibility for ancillary assessments), 8|Page  TECH – 4010 Assessing Technology – Module 2 Environmental Department, Public Affairs Department; Technical Writers and Printing Department It is understood that the assessor may not have the staff listed within their organization, especially if they are developing a product idea as a private citizen. Further, the use of experts who are permanent employees of the assessor may be perceived as involving bias. This perception must be considered before the decision whether or not to use in-house experts is made. Organization Of The Assessment Team - Choosing Staff Members: A team of experts in specific fields may be contracted from outside the assessor's staff. When selecting these persons a assessor should consider each candidate’s: Expertise (training, knowledge) Experience Knowledge of the project site location, where applicable Knowledge of the type of products that will be developed, where applicable Acceptability to the regulator(s) (i.e. - the regulator will want only qualified personnel and subcontractors to work on the assessment. The regulator will often request a list of resumes as proof of qualification) Communication skills Expert groups chosen for the assessment team must possess a baseline measurement and impact prediction capabilities. A team for the assessment of a major project may require experts from various disciplines. The assessment of a product or a minor project may require experts from some of these disciplines, or others such as market research. Organization Of The Assessment Team - Time Considerations: The mobilization and operation of an assessment project assessment team may have significant time requirements, depending on the nature of the technology. Time considerations may include: Staffing requirements Equipment procurement Transport time to the site Instrument installation and set-up times Time requirements for various measurements and techniques Seasonal restrictions on activity (e.g., weather), or requirements for data (e.g.,biological) 9|Page  TECH – 4010 Assessing Technology – Module 2 Organization Of The Assessment Team - Planning Tasks Of The Team Coordinator: The Team Coordinator must structure and direct the activities of the assessment team. The list below summarizes some of the important planning tasks for the Team Coordinator. The Coordinator: Develop a grid showing the desired interaction among expert groups, supplemented by names, addresses, telephone numbers and assessment subject areas. Resolve conflicts of expert and professional opinion before the assessment is finalized. The coordinator must act as a mediator in such situations. Occasionally, it may be necessary to seek outside opinions. Ensure that the text of the assessment will avoid recommendations for "further study". Ensure that work is scheduled effectively and advise personnel of the schedules. The schedules require continual updating as the assessment progresses. Ensure that any interaction with regulatory agencies takes place, where necessary, at the appropriate stages of the assessment. Ensure that work remains coordinated between different work teams. Ensure that all goals and standards, including time and budget constraints, are maintained. Organization Of The Assessment Team – Pitfalls: Curtis (1997) states that the Team Coordinator should take care to avoid the following pitfalls: Not planning the assessment execution in detail; Not allowing sufficient lead time for the assessment in project planning; Accepting overly optimistic estimates of the time required for regulatory review; Failing to undertake and document reviews of work-in-progress and of preliminary drafts of the assessment with regulatory agencies; Becoming embroiled in political activities or, equally dangerous, ignoring the political elements of the proposal and the assessment; Selecting a project team which is too small or not sufficiently expert; Failing to exert strong financial and "scope-of-work" control over team sub-groups; and Authorizing printing of the assessment before it is reviewed and approved by both the assessor's management and the organization. Development Of A Schedule And Control System For The EA: Assessment Report Contents: The Team Coordinator must have overall control of the assessment and be able to meet goals in an organized manner. A clear, concise vision of "who, what, when, where, why, how and how much" is required. A critical, but often omitted, assessment element is a cost estimate and summary of commitments by the assessor. Estimates should include costs of future studies, pollution control equipment, and other mitigation, reclamation and abandonment measures. The assessor will need to approve these commitments, and cannot do so competently without cost 10 | P a g e  TECH – 4010 Assessing Technology – Module 2 information. The estimates also help to illustrate the relative cost-effectiveness of the proposed measures. Special accounting procedures should be arranged for the assessment. The procedures should allow quick cost-control feedback to the coordinator. The relative ease of control of the assessment team depends upon the assembled team. Where the time requirement for an assessment is rather long, control of scheduling is a must. Standard critical path scheduling methods should be used for this task. Monthly progress reviews are employed to show the percentage of the assessment work completed, the cost to date, and the control budget. Assessment Planning - Detailed Work Schedule: The following is a detailed schedule of work tasks developed by Curtis, (1997). The tasks are listed in the optimal order of execution. Remember that, for large projects, 18 to 30 months are frequently required for completion of work tasks up to and including Item 17. You may wish to put a schedule in a scheduling program such as MS Project (Durations noted are estimates only, and will vary based on the technology under consideration). Required Item Task Time 1 Organize a preliminary assessment steering team. Estimate the costs of an assessment, including costs of assessment preparation and approval, and of mitigation, reclamation and 2 abandonment measures. Decide whether to proceed after considering this information, together with other project parameters. Prepare a preliminary description of the project. Describe the major 3 ancillary facilities which the project will require. Obtain a preliminary description of the existing physical and socio- 4 economic environment, or "baseline". Make a preliminary prediction of the expected effects of the proposal 5 upon the environment. Prepare an outline of the proposed assessment study and related 6 activities. Meet with the organization to review items 3 to 6 above. Modify these components as necessary to achieve mutual agreement upon the content of the proposed assessment. Follow up the meeting with detailed written confirmation. The careful documentation of reviews of the assessment at all stages 2-4 7 will also serve as a tool to prevent the burgeoning of organization Weeks demands, which can include additional investigations and mitigative measures. An assessor need not necessarily agree with the reviewer’s comments or demands, but must, however, address the comments and demands of the assessment, whether agreeing with them or not. 11 | P a g e  TECH – 4010 Assessing Technology – Module 2 Required Item Task Time Organize an assessment work team for the detailed assessment 2-4 8 preparation. (If a contracted team is to be used, invite proposals from Weeks consultants at this stage.) Prepare a detailed project description to a "pre-design level of detail". Also prepare a detailed description of the ancillary facilities for the 4-6 project. This work must begin before item 10 below, to provide 9 Weeks definition of the site(s) to be investigated. Thereafter, it may proceed simultaneously with items 10 and 11, but must be completed before item 12. Before organizing field work, search for existing environmental 45-52 baseline information; this research can reduce the need for new field 10 Weeks studies. Make detailed measurements of the environmental baseline. Begin the Public Participation Program at this time 4-8 Submit the results of items 9 and 10 to the appropriate organization to 11 Weeks obtain opinions and approval of these components. 4-8 Assess, in detail, the environmental impacts of the effects of the 12 Weeks project and its ancillary facilities. Propose mitigative measures for expected adverse impacts. Propose 4-8 13 enhancement measures for positive impacts, where feasible. Describe Weeks appropriate reclamation and abandonment plans. 4-6 Submit the results of items 12 and 13 to the appropriate regulator(s). 14 Weeks Obtain and document their opinions and approval of these components. 6-12 Prepare a final draft assessment report. Submit the final draft report to 15 Weeks the assessor's management, and revise it if necessary. 4-12 Submit the draft final assessment to the organization for review and 16 Weeks approval. 6-12 Negotiate (with documentation) organization approval of the 17 weeks assessment and prepare the final report Follow developments during the public review period. Prepare 4-12 18 responses and, if appropriate, prepare an assessment addendum to Weeks revise the assessment. If hearings are required, hire a hearing expert and assemble a legal 12-52 19 team. Prepare for detailed questioning of the assessment. Attend the Weeks hearings and document the proceedings as they progress. Assignment 2: You are now ready to start assignment 2 in which you will use the technology you submitted in the first assignment and develop an assessment plan to implement the technology within an organization. 12 | P a g e  TECH – 4010 Assessing Technology – Module 2 Week 6 – Lesson 5: Alternative Evaluation and Generation Welcome to Lesson 5. By now you should have a good understanding of what is involved in developing a Technology Assessment Plan with the next step of getting ready to start the assessment itself. One subject that comes to mind during all stages of Technology Assessment is looking at alternative technologies that meet the stated goals and objectives. Alternatives are always looked at. Your gut instinct during the planning stage will be to investigate possible alternatives, which is part of the planning process. During assignment 2 it is expected you will include some elements of alternative evaluation. This is known as initial alternative evaluation and is covered in the first half of the course content. Detailed formal alternative evaluation is conducted as part of the execution phase of the Technology Assessment. Detailed analysis of alternatives is conducted during this phase. Formal alternative analysis techniques are used to determine which direction your technology assessment should be heading. Several methods of commonly used alternative techniques will be presented here in the second half of the content. It is expected as part of assignment 3 you will apply some of these techniques, not in assignment 2. Generation Of Technology Alternatives During Planning Stage (Pre-Technology Assessment): The generation of alternatives to a proposed technology is a useful application for both projects and products. It helps to focus the project/product design within the context of the proponent's goals. The generation of project alternatives is a legislated requirement in many federal and provincial environmental assessment processes. This process presents the government reviewers a preferred project alternative that can be compared in context to variations of the project. It also helps to prevent the proponent from presenting a report that focuses only on the merits of a project method in which they have a vested interest. Alternatives generation may also be applied to the assessment of products. It can help the proponent to ensure that they are not overlooking viable alternatives to or variations of the product in question. Project or project alternatives may be structural, non-structural or a combination of the two. Structural alternatives include physical variations of the project or product. A structural alternative to a plastic tank may be a stainless steel tank. A structural alternative to overland power transmission lines may be buried cable. Non-structural alternatives involve a non-physical, institutional or operational modification of the product or project. A non-structural alternative may involve a decision to limit production 13 | P a g e  TECH – 4010 Assessing Technology – Module 2 of the product in order to market it as a "limited edition". Applied to a project, it may be an option to establish a tourist chalet on a seasonal basis rather than year round. It is important for the proponent to include the "null" or "do nothing" alternative within the set of alternatives. This step generates a baseline set of information that can be used to assess what would occur if the project or product is not developed. This baseline information can then be used to estimate the eventual impact of the proposed technology. It is also important to distinguish between "alternatives to the product/project" and "alternative methods of developing the project/product". The former category is a broad set of alternatives that can be used to achieve the proponent's goals. The latter category is a set of variations of the particular "alternatives to the project/product". These principles are illustrated in the case studies listed on the following pages. Note that the alternatives are related to the proponent goals. 14 | P a g e  TECH – 4010 Assessing Technology – Module 2 Case Study 1 – Hydro-Electric Generation On Tranquil Lake: Example 1 - A proposed Hydro-electric development on Tranquil Lake (Proponent's goal - developing a power source to run a large scale manufacturing facility) Alternatives to the Alternative Methods of Developing the Product/Project Product/Project Do Nothing Do Nothing Fuel-oil furnace power Wood fired boilers Other Energy Sources Solar energy Nuclear power Different Size Hydro-electric 10 MegaWatt project Project 50 MegaWatt project Upgrade Muskrat Falls development from 50 MW to Modification to an Existing 70 MW Hydroelectric Facility Upgrade Jamestown River development from 10 MW to 30 MW 300 m downstream of proposed site on Lazy River, near Tranquil Lake Alternate Main Dam Sites 1200 m upstream of proposed site on Lazy River, near Tranquil Lake Connect to transmission line at Central City Alternate Transmission Line Setup Connect to terminal station at Springfield Expand construction schedule to take place over two years, during May - October each year Alternate Construction Schedules Compress construction schedule to fit into ten months (March - December) 15 | P a g e  TECH – 4010 Assessing Technology – Module 2 Case Study 2 – Electric Car: Example 2 - Development of an Electric Car (Proponent's goal - reducing emissions from urban traffic) Alternative Methods of Developing the Alternatives to the Product/Project Product/Project Do Nothing Do Nothing Encourage Alternate Modes of Existing Buses Streetcars/trams Transportation Carpooling Alcohol Powered Vehicles Different Alternate Transports Personal Hovercraft Nuclear Powered Vehicles Scooter Modify Scale of Vehicle Light duty vehicle for temperate climates Bus Modify Power Source Plug into receptacle Power drawn from solar panels Modify Development Schedule First production in May 2000 First production in September 2001 3.1.4 Identification Of Goals: Goals identification is fundamental to the generation and evaluation of alternatives. An effective set of evaluative measures can only be formulated after goals have been established. These measures are used to evaluate the degree to which each alternative fulfills the stated goals. For example, a project goal might be the improvement in the "quality of urban life". One evaluative measure of "quality of urban life" may be the percentage of open space and parkland in a city. A product goal may be "durability", with one possible evaluative measure being tensile strength. It is important to note that several evaluative measures may be applied to any single project goal. There is often more than one goal involved in the evaluation process. The central goal may be identified as the problem or need which the technology is designed to meet. Other goals are associated with the individuals or groups who are likely to be affected by these proposed 16 | P a g e  TECH – 4010 Assessing Technology – Module 2 actions. Goals may be expressed very generally, such as "improve quality of life" or very specific such as "keep noise levels below 20 dB". Goal Development: As discussed in lesson 2, goals and how they link the corporate strategic plan are critical in the success of producing a Technology assessment. During the strategic planning process, it is useful to have a multi-disciplinary team to develop goals and possible technology assessment for the CTO’s the technology plan. The team may include some or all of the following for a project assessment: Interested Citizens (e.g. - Leaders of Heritage or Conservation Groups) Other heads of public and semi-public bodies such as executives of commercial industries Landowners whose property is directly affected Elected Officials (e.g. Mayor of Local Town, Provincial Energy Minister) A product assessment team is often assembled internally, in order to protect details of the proposed product. However, marketing consultants, representatives of target consumer groups and personnel from business enterprise centers may be consulted in the goal development process. The persons mentioned in the two previous paragraphs could be consulted for advice or they may be polled through interviews, focus groups or attitude surveys. The primary aim of the goal formulation process is to attain agreement on the goals to be used for the generation and evaluation of alternatives. Case Study: A Dichotomy Of Goals: It is possible that the goals of affected groups or environments may be totally or partially incompatible. Haussman (Pub. No. EF-28) studied the community goals of two population groups in Apsley Village, located 100 miles northeast of Toronto, Ontario. The project under consideration was a mining operation. The community population consisted of cottagers and villagers. The cottagers, as part-time residents, valued the isolation and tranquility of the area. The villagers, as permanent residents, valued the friendliness and informality of the community, but also were concerned about the local employment. Potential negative impacts were identified in four major areas: effect on cottagers' valued tranquility; effect on the tourist industry; effect on area character; and, effect on the environment (identified by cottagers only). Area characteristics that were important to cottagers were the peace, quiet, sense of isolation and environmental purity associated with the cottage experience. Noise, air and water quality degradation and congestion of both 17 | P a g e  TECH – 4010 Assessing Technology – Module 2 recreational areas (lakes) and roads were indicated as the most sensitive impact areas to cottagers. The emphasis given by villagers to the informality and friendliness of village life suggested that crowding and the larger scale of community functions associated with mine development were particularly sensitive areas of impact for this population. In this example, the assessor was confronted with two population groups with slightly different goals. The goals of the principal groups were: Cottagers Villagers Mine Owners Sense of Friendliness isolation Informality Economic Quiet Maintenance of small growth Environmental own status purity Employment The recognition of goal conflicts and their resolution will be a major task if the mine development is to proceed. The villagers are the only group that seem to be interested in the economic benefits, but these benefits may be outweighed by their desire to maintain their "small town" atmosphere and pristine physical environment. Use Of Goals In The Alternatives Generation Process: It is important to make continual reference to the organizations goals throughout the process of generating alternatives. This step helps to develop a wide range of alternatives and to avoid the automatic selection of a predetermined alternative. Two common failings in the generation of alternatives are a failure to consider the "null hypothesis" and the inclusion of "strawman" alternatives. The inclusion of the null hypothesis, as defined earlier, permits an examination of the consequences of not embarking on any course of action. It helps identify future problems and can provide a rationale or justification for an alternative course of action. The "strawman" is an alternative that does not fulfill the goal of the project or is substantially worse than the other alternatives. A strawman alternative defeats the evaluation process because the strawman alternative(s) is easily rejected, in order to make the proponent's pet alternative look good. 18 | P a g e  TECH – 4010 Assessing Technology – Module 2 Consideration must be given to constraints when generating the proposed alternatives. Constraints may be defined as conditions which can (or must) not be violated. One type of constraints is government and international standards. Fiscal and technical limitations are another type of constraint. Constraints may be derived from objectives and standards, or they may arise from the physical, social, and economic environments. The generation of alternatives is not conducted solely at the outset of a technical assessment. As information comes to light through the evaluation, new alternatives may be conceived, and existing ones will be redefined and modified. This is a type of "feedback process" that involves the simultaneous assessment and generation of alternatives. Strawman Alternatives - Case Studies: L.W. Canter (1979) studied twenty-eight Environmental Impact Statements (EIS's) on municipal wastewater programs and found strawman alternatives to be common. The 1977 hearings conducted by the Council on Environmental Quality indicated that many EIS's include "strawman" alternatives; (alternatives that are obviously bad in comparison to the proposed project). Inclusion of such alternatives does not allow a rigorous exploration and evaluation of reasonable alternatives for meeting given needs. Three of these EIS's contained strawmen alternatives: This conclusion is based primarily on the fact that the detailed characteristics of the alternatives were not presented nor as the method used to select the proposed action identified. No attempt was made to analyze the presentation of alternatives in the twenty-eight facility plans; however, it is possible that the number of facility plans having strawman alternatives was higher than the three EIS's having the less-than-rigorous evaluation. It is sometimes difficult to determine if a given alternative is actually a "strawman" or if it was rigorously explored in the evaluation process. 19 | P a g e  TECH – 4010 Assessing Technology – Module 2 Problems With Alternative Generation: Hill and Ortolano (1979) found that, with respect to the National Environmental Protection Agency's experience in general, inadequate ranges of alternatives were being assessed. Specifically, non-structural alternatives and the 'null' alternative were not being given serious consideration in most cases. A suggested cause of these shortcomings was that a majority of the alternatives was conceived within the agency without any significant amount of input from other agencies or the public. It was also noted that the initial set of alternatives remained relatively frozen with few further options being added during the course of the evaluation. It must be emphasized that the requirement for the consideration of alternatives does not intend that alternatives be briefly mentioned and disposed of in justification of a preconceived decision with regard to the course of action to be implemented. Rather, the evaluation should provide sufficient information to decision-making bodies to assist them in making a sound decision as to what technology alternative, if any, is the most acceptable. Alternatives Evaluation During Technology Assessment: The previous section cover the alternative evaluation conducted as part of the initial TA planning process. Once you are actually into the TA, you still need to conduct a thorough alternative evaluation. The next few sections outline the methodology of alternative evaluation during the conduct of a TA. As part of assignment 3 you will be asked to apply some of these techniques, however not as part of assignment 2. Overview (From Curtis, 1997): Alternatives evaluation is a process in which project alternatives are analyzed with a view to comparing their relative or absolute advantages and disadvantages, and presenting the comparisons in a logical framework. The process results in the determination of the best or preferred alternative. Several prerequisites must be met before the alternatives evaluation procedure can begin. First, a number of plans or courses of action must be available. Second, the types and magnitude of impacts must be known for each alternative. Finally, third, the goals by which the alternatives will be assessed must be well defined. Some of the methods outlined in this unit will compare alternatives by looking at their relative advantages and disadvantages; for instance, alternative A is not as good as B, but is superior to C. Others will calculate an absolute "value" for each alternative, for example, alternatives A, B and C cost $3M, $2M and $3.5M, respectively; therefore B is preferred as the least costly alternative. Either method is an acceptable means of comparing project alternatives. The assessor may present an analysis which simply states the advantages and disadvantages of each alternative and may make no recommendations about which alternative is preferred. Conversely, he or she may make recommendations, either suggesting that a certain alternative 20 | P a g e  TECH – 4010 Assessing Technology – Module 2 is preferred over others or strongly advocating the adoption of a particular "very best" alternative. Besides the legal requirement that an alternatives evaluation must be part of an Assessment Report, there are a number of other reasons why alternatives evaluation should be included. Lichfield, Kettle and Whitbread (1975) make the point that alternatives evaluation provides a logical framework within which the goals, values and assumptions used in the decision-making process may be reviewed; permits augmentation and refinements of information on the effectiveness and consequences of proposed actions and, thus, reduces subjective and uninformed judgment; and provides information for debate on the issues. An evaluation process should, therefore: review and clarify the goals or problems relevant to the issue under consideration; propose alternative means of achieving the goals or solving the problems; assess the extent to which alternative proposals meet the stated goals and concerns; assess the effort and resources necessary to meet goals and concerns; reveal the incidence and probability of intended and unintended consequences, and identify those environmental components affected; conduct both the evaluation and public presentation in an objective manner; and, assess the differences between the impacts of the alternatives and the goals of the affected groups. Issues In Alternatives Evaluation: As in effects assessment (covered in later classes), there are many gray areas and unanswered questions in alternatives evaluation. Some of the issues such as equity, the value of time, quantification, and the probability and dynamics of effects are areas of concern in both the effects assessment and alternatives evaluation phases. Goal Explicit And Goal Implicit Methods: Although the formulation of a goal hierarchy is an essential component of alternatives evaluation, the use of the hierarchy may vary. Goal explicit evaluation methods compare courses of action on the basis of goals or objectives achievement. An example of this type of method is the goals achievement matrix listed in the “Alternatives Evaluation Techniques”, below. The advantage of goal explicit techniques is they demand goals and evaluative measures be well-defined. Their main disadvantage is that developing a goal hierarchy can be time-consuming and difficult. Different groups and individuals affected by the proposed courses of action will have varying and often conflicting goals. The resolution of goal conflicts, if it occurs at all, is usually left in the hands of the decision-makers. Where goal conflicts exist, and when adequate resources and time are not available to resolve them, the goal explicit methods are least preferred. 21 | P a g e  TECH – 4010 Assessing Technology – Module 2 Goal implicit methodologies refer to the goals hierarchy only in an implicit sense. Greater emphasis is placed on the analysis of consequences as opposed to goals achievement, and goals are referred to implicitly as value premises. Goal implicit methodologies are by far the most common techniques used, since most assessment reports are ‘effects’ assessment oriented, not ‘goals’ achievement oriented. The greatest danger in goal implicit techniques is that a goals hierarchy may never be adequately defined and an important perspective in the alternatives evaluation process will not be considered. Decision Making Under Certainty, Risk And Uncertainty: There are three basic situations possible when you are considering the future occurrence of the consequences associated with a course of action: certainty, risk and uncertainty. They are defined as: CERTAINTY: The consequences of each course of action are known with absolute certainty. RISK: The probability that a consequence will occur for a course of action is known. UNCERTAINTY: The probability that a consequence will occur for a course of action is unknown. Decision making under "certainty" is generally uncomplicated, and usually requires the selection of the most acceptable alternative from a set of possible courses of action. Unfortunately, the vast majority of consequences of concern in environmental assessment are not certain as to their incidence, magnitude and significance. Therefore, evaluation under conditions of certainty rarely occurs. Decision making under "risk" is a gambling situation or a game of chance. Many techniques exist for decision making under these conditions such as decision trees and expected value matrices. The use of these techniques requires a great deal of knowledge about the likelihoods of consequences occurring for a course of action. Decision making under uncertainty is the most frequent condition you will encounter since, in general, our ability to predict the likelihood of an outcome of an environmental action is poor. A number of decision making criteria are available which will help you make decisions under these conditions. These criteria are listed in the alternatives evaluation techniques, below. 22 | P a g e  TECH – 4010 Assessing Technology – Module 2 Alternatives Evaluation Techniques (From Curtis, 1997): Below are a list of techniques to evaluate alternatives during the technology assessment process. Name Type Use Alternatives generation Most often used with impact assessment Scenarios Goal Implicit techniques and other alternatives evaluation techniques. Minimax, Maximax Goal implicit decision- and Minimax making criteria for Alternatives selection under conditions of Regret Decision decisions under uncertainty Criteria uncertainty Alternatives selection under conditions of Decision Trees Goal Implicit risk. Most often used with other alternatives evaluation techniques. Alternatives evaluation where monetary Cost-Benefit Investment decision values can be placed on the costs and Analysis analysis, goal implicit benefits of all the available alternatives 23 | P a g e  TECH – 4010 Assessing Technology – Module 2 Scenarios – Description: A scenario is a hypothetical sequence of events intended to focus attention on pivotal future events and decision points. Scenarios deal with ongoing processes, rather than a specific future point in time. Two questions are addressed through the construction of scenarios: How might the course of action under consideration result in potential future situations? What options exist at each step of this ongoing process to prevent, divert, or facilitate the process? There are a number of advantages in using scenarios as an evaluation tool: (Kahn and Wienter, 1967) Since scenarios are descriptive, they often tend to dramatize the future, and thus outline more forcefully the consequences of courses of action than more structured, analytical methods. This feature makes scenarios, as a methodology, more amenable to public participation and debate. If constructed carefully, scenarios can illustrate the interrelationships between the alternative courses of action and the various components of the environment (social, physical, economic, etc.). The scenario construction process, through its creative emphasis, can point out a more comprehensive set of possible consequences. Other methodologies deal only with the most likely consequences. Some important things to keep in mind when you are developing scenarios are: There should be a wide variety of distinct scenarios which covers a reasonable range of types of actions and a range of types and magnitudes of effects. The scenarios should encompass a variety of public opinions about the main problems and desired solutions for the area under study. By doing this, the scenarios will become a better mechanism to focus public participation and debate. The scenarios should have a reasonable chance of occurring. It is reasonable to omit some events such as political/legal controversy, permit delays or natural disasters, but all future events that a "reasonable" person could anticipate must be included. One criticism of scenarios has been the creative emphasis can lead to the production of misleading information. However, this can also be seen as an advantage, in that discussion and debate would point out unrealistic scenarios and possibly decrease the uncertainty associated with the more realistic versions of future consequences. In view of the word-descriptive and dramatic nature of scenarios, they would be most useful in combination with the more analytical methodologies presented elsewhere in this unit. 24 | P a g e  TECH – 4010 Assessing Technology – Module 2 Particularly in the detailed evaluation of the "short list", the construction of scenarios associated with each of the alternatives would help in giving the decision-maker and the public a more forceful illustration of major issues, a more comprehensive picture of the consequences of each course of action, and one which they could more easily compare with their own individual objectives. Scenarios - Case Study: The Little Cataraqui Creek EIA (Ontario Ministry of the Environment, 1976) used scenarios in the alternatives generation process. The four scenarios that were proposed (two are reproduced here for you) were each analyzed in depth, for the types and magnitudes of effects that they would produce. Here are scenarios I and IV; notice that the null hypothesis has been considered. Scenario I - All Proposed Residential and Commercial Developments: This scenario consists of a composite description of all developments proposed by the various owners according to applications for building permits submitted to the City of Kingston, and conversations held with the owners. Belcourt Construction Limited, holding a total of 38.8 acres of which 13.0 acres is designated as hazard land unavailable for development, purchased the land in 1972 for $365,000. Prior to July, 1976, the company proposed to construct a commercial and residential complex on the remaining 25.8 acres. Three 2-storey commercial buildings and the surrounding surface paving would cover 5.3 acres, providing 100,000 square feet of floor space and 350 parking spaces. Entrances to the parking lot are from Bath Road and the Extendicare driveway. Building construction entails structural concrete, walls of brick and block, and tinted store windows. Estimated cost of the commercial structure is $750,000. Recently, an assessed value of the 38.8 acres if $950,000. Types of commercial activities that may occupy the space are retail and service-oriented stores. Four 8-storey luxury-type apartment buildings, access driveways and parking areas would occupy the land immediately north of the commercial plaza, on 20.5 acres of useable land. Zoning bylaws prevailing at the time of application allow for 466 units, for an estimated population of 950. Most units could be one and two bedroom apartments, with a few larger three bedroom ones. Under the City of Kingston Bylaw 8499, provision must be made for 652 parking spaces, a minimal number possibly being located underground. Access to the buildings would be from the extension of Queen Mary Road past the Extendicare facilities. Estimated cost of the apartment buildings would be $5,592,000. A proposed access road (400 foot extension) would cost $28,000, not including the cost of an entrance driveway and parking lot. The Figure illustrates schematically the placement of roads, buildings and parking areas described by Scenario I. Since approved site plans were not available for any development components except the road through the northwest corner of the study area, each development 25 | P a g e  TECH – 4010 Assessing Technology – Module 2 was drawn on the landowner's lot in a straightforward manner, and parking areas surround the buildings likewise. A 4.85 acres woodlot of pines, hemlock and hardwoods located centrally in the study area would be a park for Homestead Landholdings Ltd. and A. B. Smith's residential development on the north half of their 8 acre site. A. B. Smith proposed not to fence the parkland, leaving it open to public use, and to construct a walkway skirting the water's edge around the pine woods, linking the residential development of Homestead Landholdings Ltd. with Sherwood Drive. The walkway could possibly be owned and maintained by the City as the 5% parkland transferred from developer to the municipality as required by the Planning Act. Homestead Landholdings Ltd. proposed two apartment structures. A six-story apartment building would consist of 63 two-bedroom units; an eight-story apartment building would consist of 96 one-bedroom and bachelor units. An estimate of the future population would 320 persons. Building construction would involve structural concrete, brick exteriors with extended metal railed balconies for most units. The grounds would contain a fenced play area for young children. The required 223 parking spaces are above ground. Access exists from Princess Street via a private road presently servicing Mississauga Apartment complex. Estimated cost would be $900,000 and $930,000 for the two structures respectively. Nearby the Homestead development, a 3.2 acre site above the flood plain, presently owned by John Smith, would accommodate an estimated 100 people, in a six-story residential development containing 46 units of one and two-bedroom types of apartment. A private road from A. B. Smith's land, via an easement right of way, is a proposed access route to 63 above ground parking spaces. Estimated cost would be $552,000 for the building; the cost of the access driveway is unknown. On the west side of the creek, John Smith owns approximately 77.2 acres of land within the city limits, 22.8 acres are above the flood plain limit. An appeal of the Cataraqui Conservation Authority's decision to refuse fill permits for this tract of land resulted in a compromise agreement between the Ministry of Natural Resources, the landowner, and the Conservation Authority, for a road, 86 feet wide with surface area of 4.0 acres to proceed from Princess Street immediately north west of the Ambassador Motel, arcing northward and paralleling the railway line. A zoning change from private open space to residential could result in 28 units per acre, for a total of 638 units of multiple family type housing over the 22.8 available acres north of the road and an associated population estimate of 1276 to 1915 persons. Parking spaces would number 893, and access would be provided by the proposed road which would exit onto an improved road network proposed in the Township of Kingston. The cost of the road is estimated to be $40,000; cost of residential buildings grossly is estimated to be $7,656,000. 26 | P a g e  TECH – 4010 Assessing Technology – Module 2 Scenario I – Summary: Estimate of total population projected for the 2,646 to 3,285 persons study area Total acreage held by developers 127.2 acres Total land area above the flood line i.e. 59.8 acres suitable for development Total area to be developed with an impervious 34.7 acres surface covering Projected increase in the number of dwelling 1309 units units in study area Total number of parking spaces required 2181 spaces Total increase projected in the number of 187 to 231 persons children under 15 years Scenario IV - The No-Build Alternative: This scenario assumes no financial or political barriers exist in the process of preserving the Little Cataraqui Creek study area and the wetlands associated with it. The creek, wetlands, meadows, hedgerows and woodlots would be preserved in their quasi-wild natural state over the entire 130 acres. The Rideau Trail would be maintained but otherwise, natural spring breakup flooding and vegetal succession processes would not be interfered with by organized maintenance. The study area would remain unfenced and freely accessible to the public, who may increasingly take advantage of the recreational and aesthetic resources which exist in the valley of the Little Cataraqui Creek. 27 | P a g e  TECH – 4010 Assessing Technology – Module 2 Scenario IV – Summary: Estimate of total population projected for the study 0 persons area Total land area above the flood line i.e. suitable for 59.5 acres development Total land to be developed with an impervious surface 0 acres covering Projected increase in the number of dwelling units in 0 units study area only as the city estimates a need Total number of parking spaces required exists Dependent on population living in Total increase projected in the number of children the vicinity of the creek area Minimax, Maximax And Minimax Regret Decision Criteria – Description: There are a number of procedures which can be used to make decisions under conditions of uncertainty, i.e. when the set of possible occurrences is known, but the probability associated with the occurrence of any particular consequence is not. They are: Minimax Criterion: The minimax criterion is a conservative or pessimistic criterion because it assumes that the worst possible outcome associated with an action will always occur. To use minimax, assume the worst outcome will occur for each alternative and select the alternative with the "best-worst" outcome. Maximax Criterion: The maximax is an aggressive or optimistic criterion because it assumes that the best possible outcome associated with an action will occur. To use maximax, assume the best outcome will occur for each alternative and select the alternative with the "best-best" outcome. This is a very risky criterion and is perhaps not suitable for use where significant adverse consequences are possible. Minimax Regret Criterion: The minimax regret criterion allows the decision-maker to minimize the 'regret' he might suffer from the consequences of a decision. Regret is the difference between the best and worst outcome of a particular alternative. To use minimax regret, the alternative having the minimum regret is selected. Decisions that you will have to make are likely to fall under the classification of uncertainty and will not be as clear-cut as the example in the case study that follows. The principles of minimax, maximax and minimax regret are, however, still applicable. 28 | P a g e  TECH – 4010 Assessing Technology – Module 2 Minimax, Maximax and Minimax Regret Decision Criteria - Case Study: Case Study: Decision Making at the City Dump: You are manager of the city dump and are selecting sites for a new dump. The method of disposal will involve landfill and three potential sites have been selected. For each site, the greatest environmental danger would be an upward movement in the water table resulting in the dump contaminating the groundwater. This would require that you relocate nearby wells used for drinking water. The cost of developing each site and the cost of relocating the wells is given below. Site Development Cost Well Relocation Cost A $1 M $14 M B $3 M $7 M C $7 M $2 M There is no way to know at this time whether the water table will rise. The first step is to compute the costs associated with each site. We will take into account only the development costs and the relocation costs (if incurred) and assume all three sites to be equal in all other respects. Site Development Cost Cost With Well Relocation A $1 M $15 M B $3 M $10 M C $7 M $9 M We will use decision making criteria for conditions of uncertainty. Minimax: Minimize the Maximum Loss The maximum losses for sites A, B and C are $15 M, $10 M and $9 M respectively. You are pessimistic by nature and believe the worst outcome always occurs. Therefore, choose site C. You reason that we may as well plan for the worst. It's up to you to explain to your boss why you want to spend $7 M on the dump and not $1 M or $ 3 M! Maximax: Maximize the Maximum Gain A "gain" in this case is not having to spend money. The maximum "gains" (costs are negative gains) for sites A, B and C are -$1 M, -$3 M and -$7 M respectively. You are optimistic and choose site A, reasoning that well relocation is unnecessary. Your boss will be happy to know 29 | P a g e  TECH – 4010 Assessing Technology – Module 2 that the new dump will only cost $1 M and not $7 M, but you better hope relocation is unnecessary! Minimax Regret: Minimize the Maximum Regret The maximum regrets for sites A, B and C are $14 M, $7 M and $2 M respectively. 'Regret' is defined as the "cost of a mistake". You are mainly worried about the consequences of making the wrong decision and don't really care about the initial cost. Choose site C. It will cost $7 M to develop, but if well relocation is required, your boss won't be too angry, it's only an extra $2 M to relocate the wells. How would you tell him you need $14 M extra to relocate wells if you had chosen site A and the water table rose? Decision Trees – Description: A decision tree is one method (an expected value matrix is another) for making decisions under conditions of risk. Since this is decision making under risk, we must know the probability that every possible consequence or outcome of a decision might occur. As well, we have to be able to place a value (usually money) on each possible outcome. Decision trees allow us to select the "best" or most highly valued alternative based on a combination of the probability of a desired event occurring and its value. The central concept of a decision tree is the "expected value". The expected value of a decision is the expected long term or average value. For example, if you roll a die and pay $1 if it comes out 1, 2 or 3 and receive $2 if it comes out 4, 5 or 6. What is the expected value? Let's figure it out. Half the time you expect a number less than or equal to 3 and the other half of the time you expect a number greater than 3. Calculating the expected value, we get: EV = 1 (− $1) + 1 ($2) = $0.50 2 2 The expected value is the average value we expect to receive per toss. To calculate the expected value of an event, multiply the probability of the event occurring by the gain or value of that event. In general, if we follow a course of action with two possible outcomes, A and B, with probability of occurrence PA and PB respectively, and with values VA and VB respectively, the expected value of the course of action is: EV = ( PA VA ) + ( PB VB ) Now that we understand the concept of expected value, we can build a decision tree. A decision tree is one method of calculating the expected value of a course of action. 30 | P a g e  TECH – 4010 Assessing Technology – Module 2 Decision Trees - Calculating the Expected Value: If you are given a choice of game A or game B, which would you choose? How much could you win or lose on the first roll of the die? A: Roll die. If it is 1 or 2, pay $3. If it is 3, 4, 5 or 6, receive $2. B: Roll die. If it is 1, pay $10. If it is 2, 3, 4, 5 or 6, receive $1. A : EV = 2 (− $3) + 4 ($2) = $ 2 6 = $0.33 6 6 B : EV = (− $10) + ($1) = $ − 5 = $ − 0.83 1 5 6 6 6 We would rather play game A. On the first roll of the die however, we could either pay $3 or receive $2. In the long run or 'on average', we expect to receive $2/6 per roll of the die. Note that the expected value is a long term or average value for a single event. To construct a decision tree, follow these 7 steps: 1. The initial node is shown as a square indicating it is a decision node. Every alternate course of action available when making that decision becomes a new branch of the tree. These are events over which you have control since you make the decision. 2. The following nodes are shown as circles indicating these are chance occurrences with a known probability. These represent events over which you have no control and are events of known probability. On each of these branches, write down the probability that the event will occur. 3. Repeat steps (1) and (2) until all choices and events have been accounted for. 4. At the tip of every branch, write the value for the terminal event. Trace the tree from the origin to the tip of the last branch and, considering all the choices made and all the chance events encountered, assign a value that represents the worth of that particular sequence of events and decisions. 5. Work backwards in the tree, beginning with the terminal events. Under each chance event (circle), write the expected value of selecting the course of action which gets you to that chance event. For example, to calculate the expected value for a chance event with three outcomes (A, B and C) with probabilities of occurrence PA, PB and PC respectively and terminal values VA, VB and VC respectively, the expected value for the chance event is: EV = ( PA  VA ) + ( PB  VB ) + ( PC  VC ) 6. Continuing to go backwards in the tree, we look at the next decision node closer to the origin of the tree. For all the alternatives available, select the alternative with the greatest 31 | P a g e  TECH – 4010 Assessing Technology – Module 2 expected value. Cross out all the other alternatives since these have been eliminated. Write the expected value of the selected alternative under the decision node (square box). 7. By repeating steps (5) and (6), work backwards through the tree until the origin is reached. Sound confusing?... study the example carefully and work it out for yourself on a scrap of paper. The following decision tree example utilizes the above 7 steps to create a decision tree Decision Trees – Developing a New Product: You are the technology manager within a company and have been asked to either develop a new product for the organization or consolidate the company’s existing product line. If a new product is to be developed, the company has two processes, a thorough development or Rapid Development process. If the product is to be consolidated it can wither be consolidated through strengthening the product line or reaping other well-known product. The tables below outlines the cost and how well the market usually reacts to each options. Determine the most cost effective solution for the company. New Product: Probability of Process Market Reaction Return Success Through