M.Sc./M.A. Eco Introduction to Population Studies PDF

Introduction to Population Studies Ravi D. Prasad [email protected] 23-Jan-25  Module–1 (I) Introduction to Population Studies o Evolution of demography as a scientific discipline o Nature...

Introduction to Population Studies Ravi D. Prasad [email protected] 23-Jan-25  Module–1 (I) Introduction to Population Studies o Evolution of demography as a scientific discipline o Nature and scope of demography and changes in it over the time o Multi-disciplinary nature of demography and it’s links with other social science disciplines o Basic demographic concepts o Components of population change o Demographic Transition (II) Sources of Population Data o Population Census o Vital Registration System o Sample Registration System o National Sample Survey o Large Sample Demographic and Health Surveys o Quality of Demographic Data Some Common Questions..!  What is the demography?  Difference b/w demography and population studies?  What is the scope and need of demography?  How population studies interrelated/linked with other social sciences disciplines?  What are the demographic variables?  What are the components of population change?  How population changed over the period of time?  What is the demographic transition?  What are the different sources of Population Data?  What are different Large-Sample Demographic and Health Surveys in India? Demography as a scientific discipline  The discipline of the study of human population is known by two terms: (1) Demography (2) Population Studies.  Demography is a scientific study of human populations in their aggregate with regard to their size, composition or structure, spatial distributions and developments or changes in these over time.  Father of Demography/Population Studies - John Graunt  John Graunt's analysis in “Natural and Political Observations Made Upon the Bills of Mortality” (published in 1662) consisted of a compilation and an analysis of data from the Bills of Mortality. Demography v/s Population Studies  Though these terms are often used interchangeably, some scholars have tried to distinguish between “demographic analysis” and “population studies”.  Demographic analysis is ‘confined to a study of the components of population variation and change’.  Population studies are concerned 'not only with population variables, but also with the relationships between population changes and other variables’ like social, economic, political, biological, genetic, geographical variables etc. Interrelationship with other social sciences disciplines  Though Population Studies has been emerged as a separate discipline, it has an interdisciplinary character.  Population Studies v/s Mathematics and Statistics  The study of population size, growth, structure and components is entirely done with help of mathematics.  Population experts have attempted to build various mathematical models regarding population growth.  The theory of probability has been extremely useful for an analysis of mortality.  The actuarial science was useful in the preparation of life tables.  Population Studies v/s Biological Sciences  The study of fertility provides a good illustration of the relationship between population and biology.  Sex-ratio at birth and age-sex differential at death are biologically determined.  The contraceptive techniques to control the births  Medical sciences and adoption of widespread public health measures have been responsible for declining mortality rates.  Population Studies v/s Social and Behavioural Sciences  Population Studies is generally regarded as a branch of sociology, or economics, or even geography.  Most of the variables and the theories which explain demographic phenomena originate in the social sciences.  Economics: The study of population is an important area of investigation in the field of economics, specially since problems of economic development and development planning have come to the forefront in developing countries.  Understand the relationship between population trends and economic growth.  Sociology: International and internal migration  Sociological analysis – family, minorities, criminal behaviour etc.  Population Studies v/s Social and Behavioural Sciences  Psychology: Family planning and fertility regulations  Utilization patterns of healthcare services – mortality  Movement from one area to another area - migration  Geography: To understand the geographical distribution of population and it’s movements between rural and urban areas.  Spatial analysis --- Urbanization, rapid population growth in different regions Population Change  Population change is measured as the difference in population size between two points of time (i.e. two specific dates).  It can be expressed in terms of absolute change, percentage, average annual absolute change, geometric, or exponential growth rate.  Measures of population change  Let P2 = population at later date, P1 = population at the earlier date, and y = number of years between P2 and P1. Then,  Absolute change = P2 – P1 (Negative sign indicates a population loss)  Percent change = [(P2 – P1)/P1] * 100  Measures of population change always refer to a specific population, a specific geographic area and a specific period of time. How India’s Population Size and Decadal Growth Changed Over the Time? Population Size and Decadal Growth: India 1901 to 2011 Maharashtra’s Population Pune District’s Population Census 2011 – 112 million Census 2011 – 94,29,408 Census 2001 – 96 million Census 2001 – 72,32,555 Question 1: What is the decadal growth rate of Maharashtra and Pune District? Question 2: What is the annual growth rate of Maharashtra and Pune District? Components of population change  There are three components for population change in the size of population:  Fertility (births)  Mortality (deaths)  Migration (social mobility)  Understanding these three demographic processes is essential to understanding the nature and causes of population change.  Population grows through the addition of births and in-migrants.  Population declines through the subtraction of deaths and out-migrants.  Fertility  Fertility refers to the ‘occurrence of a live birth (or births)’  Fertility is determined by a variety of biological, social, economic, psychological and cultural factors.  Biological factors determine the physiological capacity to reproduce and other factors determine perceptions regarding the costs and benefits of children.  Contraceptive availability and effectiveness play a role in affecting the ability to control the number and timing of births.  Fertility rates have declined over the last two centuries irrespective of developed and developing countries.  Mortality  Mortality refers to the ‘occurrence of death in a population’.  Changes in mortality are determined primarily by changes in a population’s standard of living and advances in medicine, public health and science.  Education also has a substantial impact on mortality rates.  Mortality rates have varied considerably more among low-and middle-income countries than among high-income countries.  Mortality rates have declined tremendously during the last two centuries in high-income countries and it declined dramatically in many low- and middle-income countries, especially during the last 50 to 60 years.  Migration  Migration refers to the ‘change in one’s place of residence from one political or administrative area to another’.  Migration refers solely to changes in place of usual residence, thereby excluding all short-term or temporary movements such as commuting to work, visiting friends or relatives and going away on vacation.  At the aggregate level, factors affecting migration are area-specific characteristics such as wage rates, unemployment rates, cost of living and amenities such as climate and recreational opportunities.  At the individual level, factors affecting migration include factors mentioned for the aggregate level, as well as a host of personal characteristics such as age, sex, education, occupation and marital status. Basic Demographic Equation/Balancing Equation  Basic Demographic Equation expresses the change in population over time.  P2 = P1 + (B–D) + (I–E) Where P2 and P1 are population at two different points of time B = births D = deaths  Natural Growth Rate? I = immigrants E = emigrants If B–D = Natural increase, I–E = Net migration  P2 = P1 + NI + NM where NI is natural increase and NM is net migration. Demographic Variables  The variables of age, sex and marital status are considered the three basic demographic variables.  Fertility (Birth) variables Reproductive Age Group..?  CBR, TFR, ASFR, Sex-ratio at birth, etc. Replacement Fertility Rate – 2.1  Mortality (Death) variables  CDR, IMR, ASDR, Life Expectancy at Birth, etc.  Migration (Mobility) variables  Place of usual residence, Place of birth, Place of last residence, etc.  Nuptiality (Marriage) variables  Age at marriage, ASMR, etc. Demographic Transition Model (DTM)  DTM explains the effects of changes in birth rate and death rate on the growth rate of population.  The term ‘demographic transition’ connotes the ‘transition of a human population from a high mortality–high fertility situation to a low mortality–low fertility situation over a period of time’.  In other words, “From a condition of high mortality and high fertility with consequent slow growth of population to conditions of low mortality and low fertility, once again leading to a slow growth of population”.  In such a transition, generally the mortality rates start declining first on a secular basis and the fertility rates decline after a time lag. Demographic Transition Model (DTM)  In the basic demographic transition model, four stages are observed:  Stage-I: The pre-transition stage when both fertility and mortality rates are high and population growth rates are very low,  Stage-II: When mortality rates decline with fertility remaining almost constant or even rising a little bit or declining more slowly than the fertility rates (during which period the growth rates of the population keep rising fast);  Stage-III: When after a time lag fertility rates start a faster downward trend than mortality and the growth rate slows down; and  Stage-IV: When both the fertility and mortality levels are low at or below replacement level. Demographic Transition Model (DTM) Theory of Demographic Transition  Notestein (1945)- Rapid population growth happened during the past three centuries was mainly due to the decline in the death rate, resulting from the process of modernization, which involved rising standards of living, rising income, and advances in sanitation and in medical knowledge.  There are three main forces, namely: “Industrialization”, “Modernization”, and “Development” – by Notestein  These terms are included from modern education especially of women, transformation of an agricultural society to an industrial society, rise in per capita income, personal hygiene, improved nutrition and provision of public health and medical services. Theory of Demographic Transition  According to to C.P. Blacker, there are Five Stages of population growth. 1. The high stationary phase (high birth rates and high death rates) 2. The early expanding phase (high birth rates, but declining death rates) 3. The late expanding phase (falling birth rates, but rapidly decreasing death rates) 4. The low stationary phase (low birth rates and balanced by equally low death rates) 5. The declining phase (low death rates, lower birth rates, and deaths exceeding births) Demographic Transition – Overview