2025 MOOC 2 Study Guide PDF

Table of Contents Introduction to Hazard and Risk Fundamentals 3 Module 1: Hazard Assessment ​ 1.1 Introduction to Concepts of Natural and Anthropogenic Hazards 6 1.2 Climate Change Information and Climate Scenarios Based on IPCC AR6 8...

Table of Contents Introduction to Hazard and Risk Fundamentals 3 Module 1: Hazard Assessment ​ 1.1 Introduction to Concepts of Natural and Anthropogenic Hazards 6 1.2 Climate Change Information and Climate Scenarios Based on IPCC AR6 8 Formative Quiz: Check Your Understanding 9 1.3 Hazards Overview, Processes, and the Philippine Examples 10 1.3.1 Natural Hazards 10 1.3.2 Anthropogenic Hazards 35 1.4 Disaster Timeliness and Reliable Sources of Disaster Information 38 1.5 High-Resolution Maps and Models 43 Formative Quiz: Check Your Understanding 54 Formative Exercise: Reflecting on Hazards 55 Module 2: Risk Parameters ​ 2.1 Exposure 57 2.1.1 Exposure units 58 2.1.2 How exposure can be determined? 60 Formative Quiz: Check Your Understanding 62 ​ 2.2 Vulnerability 63 2.2.1 Sensitivity and Adaptive Capacity Indicators 63 2.2.2 How vulnerability can be assessed? 65 ​ 2.3 Summary 69 2.3.1 How risk can be assessed? 69 2.3.2 How does the country cope? 71 ​ Formative Exercise: Vulnerability 77  3 Key Takeaways 78 4 Frequently Asked Questions 80 5 References 82 6 Answer Key for Formative Quiz 92 7 Module Content Developer 93 Course code: Basics of Resilience​ ​ Page | 2  Introduction The Philippines is a hotspot for natural hazards such as floods, landslides, tsunamis, earthquakes, and volcanic eruptions. It is like Japan which is under threat from the same type of hazards but with the addition of snow-related impacts. Both countries are in the Pacific Typhoon Belt and Pacific Ring of Fire where earthquakes and volcanic eruptions are a constant threat to communities. If these atmospheric and geological hazards are not adequately addressed, they can result in considerable loss of life and substantial property damage. As urban development and population density increase, the potential for infrastructure damage and human casualties is likely to rise unless prompt and effective measures are implemented. Although the Philippines and Japan face similar types of hazards, they significantly differ in their risk levels. According to the World Risk Index 2024, published by Bündnis Entwicklung Hilft and the Institute for International Law of Peace and Armed Conflict at Ruhr University Bochum, the Philippines holds the top position, ranking first for the third consecutive year. In contrast, Japan is positioned at 24th in the same index, maintaining the same rank as in 2023, after sliding from 28th in 2022. This distinction underscores the difference between hazards and risk, emphasizing that the presence of hazards does not necessarily correlate with high disaster risk. The World Risk Index indicates that the international community perceives the Philippines as less effective in hazard management compared to Japan, particularly in areas such as Digitalization, Diversity, and Multiple Crises, which were the focal points of the rankings for 2022, 2023, and 2024, respectively. Japan outperforms the Philippines in leveraging digital solutions for disaster risk reduction and proactive humanitarian efforts, particularly in areas such as early warning systems, the analysis of complex data sets for needs assessments, and the facilitation of cash transfers. In terms of inclusivity, the initiatives undertaken in the Philippines fall short when compared to Japan and global standards, particularly regarding the support for marginalized groups, including persons with disabilities (PWDs), Indigenous Peoples (IPs), and members of the LGBTQ+ community. Although disasters and extreme natural events impact all individuals in affected areas, the adverse effects are often disproportionately felt by these marginalized populations. Additionally, the Philippines is recognized in the World Risk Index ranking as being the least prepared to address the complexities and interconnections of various hazards, which can exacerbate one another. For instance, the interplay of extreme weather events, conflicts, and the pandemic in the Philippines has highlighted significant gaps in management strategies. The occurrence of multiple crises can manifest in various patterns, with repercussions that resonate on individual, regional, and global scales. Therefore, comprehensive and anticipatory strategies are essential to effectively address their extensive impacts. Although the 2022-2024 reports considered only digitalization, diversity, and multiple crises or multiple hazards as factors in determining the ability of a country to manage hazards, many other factors that play a role in determining disaster risk which refers to the likelihood of a disaster, a calamitous event that causes significant loss of life or damage to a community, society or system. Disaster risk is a function of the interaction between hazards (e.g. floods, landslides, and tsunamis), the exposure of communities to these hazards, and the vulnerability of people to the adverse impacts of hazards (Equation 1). 𝐷𝑖𝑠𝑎𝑠𝑡𝑒𝑟 𝑅𝑖𝑠𝑘 = 𝐻𝑎𝑧𝑎𝑟𝑑 × 𝐸𝑥𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑢𝑟𝑒 × 𝑉𝑢𝑙𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 (𝐸𝑞. 1) For example, if a big flood happens in a remote and uninhabited area where there are no people, there is no disaster that takes place because there are no people or communities that were Course code: Basics of Resilience​ ​ Page | 3 affected. Likewise, if there are severe rains and the community has planned well to anticipate and mitigate the impacts of big floods by creating effective nature-based and infrastructure-based flood control measures, there will also be no disaster to even talk about. In reality, quantifying hazards, exposure of communities, as well as vulnerability of people and communities is difficult. There are a multitude of factors involved in determining hazard, exposure, and vulnerability scores. For hazards, we need to use the best technologies and frontier science to map out the locations where hazards may impact. The inability to map out accurately the hazards will lead to poor risk assessment and the lack of anticipation of hazards that will surely lead to a disaster. In terms of exposure, we can use the percentage or the number of people and critical infrastructure likely to be affected by hazards. Vulnerability can be assessed in terms of the degree to which a community is affected by natural hazard impacts. Communities that have a high poverty index, a high age-dependent population, and poorly constructed houses are more sensitive to natural hazard impacts compared to affluent communities. Additionally, vulnerability can be assessed through the community's capacity for response, which includes factors such as internet access, literacy rates, educational attainment, and overall preparedness. Communities with strong capacity traits are better equipped to manage the effects of hazards and cope with crises effectively. Approximately 20 cyclones enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility each year with around 45 percent of these making landfall in the nation. In addition to the resulting floods, rainfall-induced landslides, storm surges, and strong winds associated with severe weather, the country also experiences frequent earthquakes. Annually, there are about 100 to 150 felt earthquakes out of an average of 7,300 earthquakes that occur in the country. Some of these seismic events can be highly destructive, leading to fatal and significantly damaging outcomes. Furthermore, the presence of 24 active volcanoes and 27 potentially active volcanoes among the more than 200 identified in the country suggests a bleak outlook for the impacts of natural hazards, which consistently result in losses and damages. This situation is exacerbated by Climate Change, which climate scientists predict will intensify weather-related hazards. This MOOC explores the assessment of disaster risk in the Philippines and strategies for its mitigation in the face of ongoing natural hazards. Participants will discover that it is feasible to diminish disaster risk by addressing the exposure and vulnerabilities of communities to these hazards. Furthermore, they will learn that enhancing community resilience to reduce disaster risks encompasses various actionable measures. Some examples include: 1) downloading high-resolution and detailed hazard maps that are available for free on the NOAH website (http://noah.up.edu.ph); 2) use of the detailed hazard maps to relocate exposed communities thereby getting them out of harm’s way; 3) strictly implementing the building code or eliminate corruption, which are ways to reduce the sensitivity or the degree by which people and communities are impacted by hazards; and 4) empowering people to increase their coping capacities and lessen vulnerability through open data and multimedia internet access. These are not simple tasks, as land and data management often prioritize profit over community safety. Effective development planning that is informed by risk and grounded in scientific evidence is essential for mitigating the impacts of hazards, but it necessitates strong political commitment. This approach is crucial for breaking free from the cycle of recurring disasters and improving the Philippines' standing in the World Risk Index. To run us through what to expect in this course, watch this short introduction by Dr Likha G. Minimo, Director of the Knowledge Sharing Division of the UP Resilience Institute: bit.ly/42ncHeW Course code: Basics of Resilience​ ​ Page | 4 Navigating this Module This guide is designed to help you navigate your online course effectively. Here's a quick rundown of the elements you'll encounter: Formative Exercises: ​ These activities allow you to reflect, share your experiences, and apply course concepts to real-world scenarios. ​ They are not graded and won't affect your final grade. ​ Answer them directly in the space provided below each exercise. Formative Quizzes: ​ These short quizzes (usually 3 to 5 questions) help you assess your understanding of key concepts covered in each section. ​ They are not graded and won't affect your final grade. ​ Answers to the quizzes can be found at the end of the study guide. External Links: ​ Throughout the guide, you'll find links to helpful resources like videos, websites, documents, and playlists. ​ To access these resources, click the link or copy and paste it into your browser's address bar. Questions and Clarifications: ​ If you have any questions or need clarification on the material, please email your teachers at [email protected]. We recommend familiarizing yourself with these elements to optimize your study experience with this guide. Module Learning Outcomes After working on this module, you should be able to: 1.​ Describe the characteristics and processes of hazards and their impacts using relevant local examples. 2.​ Explain the importance of risk assessment tools to identify and assess the various risk factors within a given context, with particular attention to local challenges. 3.​ Identify key risk parameters, including exposure and vulnerability, to evaluate disaster risks in various contexts. Course code: Basics of Resilience​ ​ Page | 5 1.1 Introduction to Natural & Anthropogenic Hazards 1.1.1 Recap of Terms Before we dive into the next topic, let us recap some of the terms commonly used in disaster risk and climate change studies as defined in the Basics of Resilience course: Again, with these definitions, we can grasp that disaster happens when the risk from the interaction of hazards, exposure, and vulnerability affects the human system negatively. Thus, the formula: 𝐷𝑖𝑠𝑎𝑠𝑡𝑒𝑟 𝑅𝑖𝑠𝑘 = 𝐻𝑎𝑧𝑎𝑟𝑑 × 𝐸𝑥𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑢𝑟𝑒 × 𝑉𝑢𝑙𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 Eq (1) Course code: Basics of Resilience​ ​ Page | 6  Different equations for risk and its factors have been developed over time (see Figure 1). A common element among them is the inclusion of hazard and vulnerability. In many publications, risk is expressed as the interaction of hazards and vulnerability alone. In such cases, some authors view exposure as a subcategory of vulnerability (see Turner et al., 2003) (Bobrowsky, 2013). However, others explicitly differentiate exposure from vulnerability. For instance, Dilley et al., (2005), IPCC (2012) UNDRR (n.d.), and other authors represent risk as the interaction of three components: hazard, exposure and vulnerability. Additionally, some authors and agencies incorporate coping capacity (or lack thereof) alongside these three factors (see Hahn et al., 2003; IFRC, n.d.; European Commission Disaster Risk Management Knowledge Centre, n.d.). 𝑅𝑖𝑠𝑘 = 𝐻𝑎𝑧𝑎𝑟𝑑 𝑥 𝑉𝑢𝑙𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑅𝑖𝑠𝑘 = 𝐻𝑎𝑧𝑎𝑟𝑑 𝑥 𝐸𝑥𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑢𝑟𝑒 𝑥 𝑉𝑢𝑙𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 (UNISDR, 2004; Wisner et al., 2004) (Dilley et al., 2005) 𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑅𝑖𝑠𝑘 = (∑ 𝑒𝑙𝑒𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑠 𝑎𝑡 𝑟𝑖𝑠𝑘) 𝑥 𝐻𝑎𝑧𝑎𝑟𝑑 𝑥 𝑉𝑢𝑙𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 (Alexander, 2000) 𝑅𝑖𝑠𝑘 = (𝐻𝑎𝑧𝑎𝑟𝑑 𝑥 𝑉𝑢𝑙𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦)/𝐶𝑜𝑝𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝐶𝑎𝑝𝑎𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑦 (different agencies) 𝑅𝑖𝑠𝑘 = 𝐻𝑎𝑧𝑎𝑟𝑑 + 𝐸𝑥𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑢𝑟𝑒 + 𝑉𝑢𝑙𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦–𝐶𝑜𝑝𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝐶𝑎𝑝𝑎𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑖𝑒𝑠 (Hahn, 2003) 𝐻𝑎𝑧𝑎𝑟𝑑 + 𝐸𝑥𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑢𝑟𝑒 + 𝑉𝑢𝑙𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑅𝑖𝑠𝑘 = 𝐶𝑎𝑝𝑎𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑖𝑒𝑠 (IFRC, n.d.) 1/3 1/3 1/3 𝑅𝑖𝑠𝑘 = 𝐻𝑎𝑧𝑎𝑟𝑑 & 𝐸𝑥𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑢𝑟𝑒 × 𝑉𝑢𝑙𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 × 𝐿𝑎𝑐𝑘 𝑜𝑓 𝑐𝑜𝑝𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑐𝑎𝑝𝑎𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑦 (European Commission Disaster Risk Management Knowledge Centre, n.d.) Figure 1. Different risk formulas are used in the literature. Despite these differences, there is a general consensus that risk is a complex function of hazards and vulnerability. As noted by Bobrowsky (2013), the underlying understanding of risk remains consistent across models. Regardless of the specific approach used to represent risk, the ultimate goal remains the same: to estimate and address potential losses and harmful consequences arising from the interaction of hazards and vulnerability (ISDR, now UNDRR, 2004; Villagrán de León, 2006). For this course, we will use the formula: 𝐷𝑖𝑠𝑎𝑠𝑡𝑒𝑟 𝑅𝑖𝑠𝑘 = 𝐻𝑎𝑧𝑎𝑟𝑑 × 𝐸𝑥𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑢𝑟𝑒 × 𝑉𝑢𝑙𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 Eq (1) This approach is commonly used in disaster risk reduction frameworks, including those by the UNDRR. It provides a straightforward way to conceptualize disaster risk and emphasizes the importance of addressing the underlying factors of vulnerability and exposure to reduce risk effectively. Course code: Basics of Resilience​ ​ Page | 7 1.2 Current State of the Climate Climate change is the long-term alteration of temperature and typical weather patterns in a place. Climate change could refer to a particular location or the entire planet. Climate change may cause weather patterns to be less predictable. These unexpected weather patterns can make it difficult to maintain and grow crops in regions that rely on farming because expected temperature and rainfall levels can no longer be relied on. Climate change has also been related to other damaging weather events such as more frequent and more intense hurricanes, floods, downpours, and winter storms (National Geographic Society, 2023). According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s 6th Assessment Report (2023), human activities, principally through emissions of greenhouse gases, have unequivocally caused global warming, with global surface temperature in years 2011-2020 reaching 1.1°C above those recorded from 1850–1900. The report expresses high confidence that this trend will continue. Based on the greenhouse gas emission commitments made before the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP26), it is projected that by the year 2030, Global Warming will exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial temperature records, which has dire consequences for our planet. The warming trend creates conditions for more extreme weather events such as droughts, floods, heatwaves, and tropical cyclones. These extreme weather events have severe impacts on food and water security, human health, and the natural environment. Vulnerable communities who have historically contributed the least to climate change are expected to bear the brunt of these impacts. This includes countries or regions that have large proportions of climate-sensitive livelihoods (i.e. smallholder farmers, fishing communities). Climate change vulnerability in underdeveloped nations, sometimes called the Global South, is worsened by other factors such as armed conflict and inequalities based on gender, ethnicity, or income.Nonetheless, there are positive trends in climate change policy with at least 170 countries and cities integrating climate change adaptation into their planning processes. However, gaps in financing, scalability of interventions, and implementation of mitigation and adaptation measures remain challenges going into the future. Course code: Basics of Resilience​ ​ Page | 8  Formative Quiz: Check Your Understanding 1.​ What factor in disaster risk calculation pertains to the characteristics of a community that makes it susceptible to the damaging effects of a hazard? a.​ Capacity b.​ Vulnerability c.​ Hazard d.​ Exposure 2.​ What is the long-term alteration of temperature and typical weather patterns? a.​ Global Warming b.​ Hazards c.​ Sea-level rise d.​ Climate Change 3.​ True or False: According to the IPCC 6th Assessment Report in 2023, the average global surface temperature from 2001-2010 reached 1.5°C above the temperature records from 1850–1900 and will continue to rise in the future. Course code: Basics of Resilience​ ​ Page | 9 1.3 Hazards Overview, Processes, and Philippine Examples 1.3.1 Natural Hazards 1.3.1.1 Hydrometeorological Hazards According to the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction, or UNISDR, a hazard is considered hydrometeorological if it is atmospheric, hydrological, or oceanographic in nature (UNISDR, 2009). This type of hazard encompasses rain-induced landslides, debris flows, floods, storm surges, tornadoes, and severe winds. When a typhoon hits the Philippine shores, hydrometeorological hazards can occur simultaneously and may cause loss of life, injury or other health impacts, property damage, loss of livelihoods and services, social and economic disruption, or environmental damage. The risk of disasters is compounded for communities living in areas where there is the possibility of more than one of these hazards occurring. The causes or triggers for each hydrometeorological hazard will be discussed in their sections. Figure 2. Types of hydrometeorological hazards. a.​ Flood A flood refers to water that overflows onto land that is normally dry. Floods can happen during heavy rains, when ocean waves come on shore, when snow melts quickly, or when dams or levees break. Damaging floods may happen with only a few inches of water when it flows rapidly, or when water submerges a house to its rooftop (NOAA, n.d.). Course code: Basics of Resilience​ ​ Page | 10  Table 1. Different types of flood and their corresponding description and examples. Type of Flood Description Example Fluvial floods Occurs when water levels 2009 Tropical Storm Ondoy rise over the top of (Ketsana) riverbanks due to excessive rainfall, snowmelt, or an ice Ondoy hits Metro Manila - jam (NOAA, n.d.). ABSCBN News (https://bit.ly/40yKRuZ) Coastal floods Inundation of land areas 2013 Super Typhoon along the coast caused by Yolanda (Haiyan) heavy rainfall Typhoon Haiyan stronger than Katrina and Sandy combined – CNN (https://bit.ly/3WjUkns) Inland and Flash floods Occurs when moderate February 2024 Mindanao precipitation accumulates floods over several days, intense precipitation falls over a (https://bit.ly/3PDCJmP) short period, or a river overflows because of an ice or debris jam or dam or levee failure. b.​ Rain-induced Landslides Rain-induced landslides are a type of mass movement that is triggered by rainfall. The rainfall trigger can be cumulative over a long period or short-lasting but intense. The amount of rainfall that can trigger a landslide varies depending on the conditions of the unstable mountain slopes. As a rule of thumb, 100 mm of rain in 24 hours is considered a value that can trigger many unstable slopes to collapse. In some areas, the amount of rainfall can be less than 100 mm in 24 hours to trigger movement of an unstable mass, if delivered in a very short time. The instability of earth material is due to many factors such as geology, soil characteristics, slope angle, weathering, and fracturing, among others. Instability can develop over a long period in the range of thousands of years or can occur over a short interval, within a few days or a few months. Gravity never sleeps and is incessant in pulling unstable mountain slopes to collapse. Extreme rains can trigger an unstable mass to finally yield to the effects of gravity and eventually fall or slide down. Before a landslide, some areas may show warning signs such as the following (USGS): ​ Wet ground in areas that are usually dry ​ Cracks and bulges in the ground, pavements, sidewalks ​ Tilting and/or broken structures and utilities ​ Sudden increase or decrease of water levels in rivers, streams, and creeks Course code: Basics of Resilience​ ​ Page | 11  ​ Unusual sounds such as rumbling or cracking, possibly from moving debris Landslides travel at different speeds. Their velocity depends on the slope angle from which the landslides originate and the composition of the collapsing mass. Examples of fast-moving landslides are debris avalanches and debris flows. Landslides are deadly when human settlements are along its path. One example of a fast-moving landslide in the Philippines is the infamous Guinsaugon Landslide which overwhelmed a village in St. Bernard, Southern Leyte on 24 February 2006. This large-scale landslide devastated the village of Guinsaugon, with a population of 1,857. Only twenty people survived, rescued from the front edge of the debris field within hours of the disaster (Lagmay, et al., 2008). The landslide traveled 4.1 kilometers and had a velocity of about 100 kilometers per hour (Lagmay, 2006). Figure 3. The 2006 Guinsaugon Landslide (Photo credit: Lagmay, 2006) c.​ Storm Surge Storm surge, also known as “daluyong” in Filipino, refers to the abnormal rise of sea level above the predicted astronomical tide. Storm surges form due to strong winds brought upon by tropical cyclones pushing water over low-lying coastal areas thereby flooding the coastline and inundating areas further inland up to a few kilometers in cases where the landscapes are extremely flat. The height of storm surges can be amplified by other variables such as: ​ Underwater topography ​ High tide ​ Shape of the coastline Think about a coffee cup and blowing on the coffee to cool it down. The level of the hot drink on the far side of the person holding the cup will rise because of the air that Course code: Basics of Resilience​ ​ Page | 12  is blown on the coffee. This is similar to the powerful winds of a cyclone as it makes landfall, which makes coastal waters rise above their normal level. The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has established storm surge warning levels, also known as storm surge advisory levels or SSA levels. PAGASA also issued a warning for places that can be affected by storm surges when there is an incoming typhoon. This warning is posted on their website (https://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/) before the cyclone makes landfall. Watch this short video explaining what storm surges are: BE SAFE | Ano ang Storm Surge?https://bit.ly/4h8l3vu Storm surges are a common occurrence in the Philippines because of its archipelagic nature and being in the path of cyclones in the Typhoon Belt of the western Pacific Ocean (Ancheta, et al., 2003; Boquet, 2017). However, extremely fatal storm surges as high as two floors were not common knowledge amongst Filipinos until Yolanda made landfall on 8 November 2013. Dubbed as one of the deadliest typhoons in recorded history, Yolanda, a with maximum sustained wind speed of 315 km/h, spawned storm surges that devastated the central Philippines region, killing more than 6,300 people with total damage loss amounting to an estimated PhP 571.1 billion. Figure 4. Remains of M/V Eva Jocelyn cargo vessel washed inland during the onslaught of Typhoon Yolanda. It was made into the Yolanda Memorial Marker in 2016. This can be found in Brgy. Anibong, Tacloban City. Photos from (left) https://shipwrecklog.com/log/2013 Watch this video by Plan International showing the intensity of winds and storm surges caused by Super Typhoon Yolanda: Eyewitness footage of Typhoon Haiyan washing house away (youtube.com) For more readings about storm surge, please refer to the following materials: ​ Repeat Storm Surge Disasters of Typhoon Haiyan and Its 1897 Predecessor in the Philippines. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00245.1 ​ Devastating storm surges of Typhoon Haiyan. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2014.10.006 Course code: Basics of Resilience​ ​ Page | 13  d.​ Severe Wind Another hazard associated with typhoons is severe or strong winds. Severe wind refers to high-wind conditions typically generated by tropical cyclones that can cause significant damage to houses, buildings, and electrical lines. Many people have died from falling trees and ripped off rooftops due to strong winds during typhoons. The Philippines is prone to severe wind hazards because cyclones enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) 20 times on average per year (Cinco et al., 2016). Super Typhoon Yolanda upon landfall, packed 315 km/h maximum sustained wind speed and 379 km/h wind gusts and was considered at that time it happened as the world’s most powerful typhoon in terms of wind speed (Lagmay et al., 2015). Figure 5. Typhoon Pablo destroyed hectares of banana plantations in Compostela Town, Compostela Valley on 4 December 2012 Photo retrieved from MindaNews The videos below show examples of how severe winds can cause damage and impact the lives of people: ​ Typhoon Doksuri causes destruction in the Philippines – The Times and Sunday Times: https://bit.ly/42lGYet ​ Typhoon Milenyo (Xangsane): https://bit.ly/40huyBp e.​ Tornado A Tornado, also known as “buhawi” in Filipino, is commonly understood as a rapidly spinning column of air that extends from thunderstorm clouds to the ground. How tornadoes form is still poorly understood today. They are difficult to predict since their formation cannot be easily identified because wind is not visible unless it forms a rotating funnel of water droplets, dust, and debris. Course code: Basics of Resilience​ ​ Page | 14  This type of hazard is not common in the Philippines. Nevertheless, some occurrences led to significant damage to infrastructure and loss of lives. An example of this is the 4 November 2019 tornado that hit several barangays in Marawi City. According to the City Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Office, the estimated damage caused by the tornado is PhP 720,000 (Philstar, 2019). The video below captured the onslaught of the tornado: CAPTURED: Tornado hits Marawi City (facebook.com). Another example is the multiple waterspouts that formed over Laguna Bay on 30 May 2020. Tornadic waterspouts are simply tornadoes that form over water or move from land to water. They have the same characteristics as a land tornado and are associated with severe thunderstorms. They are often accompanied by high winds and seas, large hail, and frequent dangerous lightning (NOAA, n.d.). Figure 6. May 2020 Laguna de Bay waterspouts captured by Gilbert Agno, shared with the GMA News Network 2020 The article can be viewed here: GMA News Online To get a better understanding of how tornadoes are formed, watch this video by National Geographic: https://bit.ly/42hjIOK f.​ Drought Drought is a period of abnormally dry weather that persists long enough to produce a significant hydrologic imbalance such as crop damage or water supply shortages. Its severity depends upon the degree of moisture deficiency, its duration, and the size of the affected area. Long periods of drought have happened in the Philippines and Course code: Basics of Resilience​ ​ Page | 15  have resulted in reduced inflow to irrigation reservoirs, lower crop yields, and famine. The earliest documented drought in the Philippines was in 1583 in the Provinces of Pampanga, Tondo and Bulacan (Warren, 2009). Drought conditions in the country have become more prevalent since the mid-70s and are expected to become more severe in the upcoming years due to our changing climate (Hilario et al., 2009). Figure 7. (Left) Extreme heat and drought conditions dry up a pond in Nueva Ecija in April 2024 Photo retrieved from: GMA News Online (Right) Drought conditions damaging watermelon crops in Imus, Cavite were also observed in March 2024 Photo retrieved from: GMA News Online 1.3.1.2 Geological or Geophysical Hazards Figure 8. Types of geological or geophysical hazards. a.​ Earthquake-related Hazards An earthquake is the sudden shaking of the ground caused by the release of energy from abrupt movement in the earth’s crust. They commonly occur due to slippage along fractures called faults but can also be induced by volcanic and man-made activities. Large earthquakes happen because of the accumulation of strain energy when large crustal blocks of the earth collide with each other. Continuous buildup of this energy over long periods reaches a point when the fault cannot contain the strain anymore leading to fault rupture. The rapid movement of the fault during an earthquake releases a large amount of energy which travels in the form of seismic waves causing the ground to shake and buildings to vibrate (USGS, 2002). When earthquakes occur, many are interested in finding out where they originated. Course code: Basics of Resilience​ ​ Page | 16  Seismologists track the earthquake source and present the temblor’s location on a map. The point origin of an earthquake at depth is called the focus whereas the epicenter is the same point projected on the ground surface (Figure 9). Figure 9. Release of energy in the form of seismic waves originating from the earthquake focus. ​ Photo retrieved from: Science Learning Hub – Pokapū Akoranga Pūtaiao, University of Waikato For more readings about earthquakes, please refer to the following materials: ​ Earthquakes 101 National Geographic https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_r_nFT2m-Vg ​ Actual full video (Earthquake) April 22, 2019, at Lubao Pampanga https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J3nmPpSlqRg Figure 10. Types of earthquake-related geological hazards Course code: Basics of Resilience​ ​ Page | 17  ​ Ground Shaking Ground shaking occurs due to the transmission of seismic waves through the Earth's surface. As these earthquake waves propagate, they cause the ground to accelerate, resulting in the shaking of trees, houses, and buildings. The degree of ground acceleration or shaking can differ across various locations, influenced by factors such as the distance from the earthquake's epicenter, the topography of the area, the type of bedrock, the specific location, and the orientation of the fault rupture. Research has shown that the peak ground acceleration (PGA) in loose and unconsolidated materials can be 1.4 times more severe than that in solid rock. The response of a specific site and its structures to ground shaking is contingent upon the design and construction practices employed. Infrastructure that does not adhere to building codes is particularly vulnerable to significant damage during intense ground shaking. A notable example of the impact of ground shaking on a structure is the damage experienced by the Eva Hotel in Kidapawan City. The ground lifted when the Makilala-Malungon fault ruptured, resulting in a magnitude 6.5 earthquake in Mindanao, with the most significant impact felt in North Cotabato. Figure 11. The collapse of the Eva’s Hotel located on the National Highway of Kidapawan City, the center of North Cotabato (UP Resilience Institute Quick Response Team) ​ Ground Rupture Ground rupture refers to the visible expression of faults that extend to the surface during an earthquake. Infrastructure situated above a fault is likely to sustain significant damage when a fault experiences sudden rupture. However, not all faults that exhibit movement during an earthquake will necessarily break the surface. Typically, faults located at shallower depths are more prone to surface rupture compared to those situated at greater depths. Furthermore, the nature of the fault Course code: Basics of Resilience​ ​ Page | 18  and the earthquake's magnitude play crucial roles in determining whether the fault manifests on the ground or not. Shallow faults that produce high-magnitude earthquakes are more likely to rupture at the surface. An archetypal example of fault rupture is the one created by the Mw 7.2 earthquake in Bohol on 15 October 2013. This seismic event resulted in surface displacement, forming a 3m-high wall in Inabanga, Bohol (Felix et al., 2014). The surface manifestation of the fault has been delineated over approximately 60 kilometers and is currently referred to as the North Bohol Fault or the Inabanga Fault (Lagmay and Echo, 2014). Mapping active faults is crucial for enabling communities to adequately prepare for potential ground rupture. Notably, the North Bohol Fault had not been previously mapped before the catastrophic Bohol Earthquake that occurred on 15 November 2013. Figure 12. The 2013 Mw 7.2 earthquake in Bohol ruptured on the surface and created a 3 m-high fault scarp, in the Municipality of Inabanga, Bohol (UP Resilience Institute) ​ Earthquake-induced Landslide During an earthquake, the slope materials may lose shear strength due to ground vibrations, resulting in landslides. Many slopes, especially those with steep angles, loose materials, or weak geological formations, are inherently unstable. The intense shaking during an earthquake can further weaken these slopes by loosening soil and rock and reducing friction between particles. This weakening effect can make the slope more unstable and trigger slope failure. An example of an earthquake-induced landslide is in Cotabato province where three consecutive magnitude 6.0 earthquakes occurred in one month and the Central Luzon earthquake in 2019 that caused landslides in the mountain range of Zambales. Course code: Basics of Resilience​ ​ Page | 19  Figure 13.Earthquake-induced landslides in Makilala, Cotabato triggered by a series of earthquakes in October 2019 (UP Resilience Institute Quick Response Team) Figure 14. Earthquake-induced landslides in Zambales triggered by the 22 April 2019 Central Luzon Earthquake (UP Resilience Institute Quick Response Team) ​ Liquefaction Soil liquefaction is a phenomenon where loose soil temporarily loses its strength in response to stress, like strong ground shaking. During earthquakes, ground vibration triggers an increase in water pressure that leads poorly consolidated soil to lose its cohesive strength and behave like a liquid. With reduced strength, the liquefied soil can no longer support the same amount of weight as it did when it was solid. Course code: Basics of Resilience​ ​ Page | 20  Figure 15. Liquefaction of unconsolidated sand when subjected to shaking. This demonstration shows an actual earthquake record using a shaketable – a product of a collaboration project between UPRI-NOAH and UP NISMED. Video courtesy of Mr. Eligio C. Obille Jr. of UP NISMED To learn more about liquefaction, please watch this video by Geoscience Australia: https://bit.ly/4hcRqZI One manifestation of liquefaction is sand boils. Sand boils are formations that occur in soil and sedimentary deposits during earthquakes. They typically appear as small circular eruptions of sand and water from the ground's surface. The photos below show mudboils in clayey and silty soil, which formed in Floridablanca, Pampanga during the 2019 Central Luzon earthquake. Figure 16. Evidence of mud boils in Floridablanca, Pampanga captured by the UP Resilience Institute Quick Response Team during their fieldwork inspection following the 2019 Central Luzon Earthquake Course code: Basics of Resilience​ ​ Page | 21  ​ Tsunami and Seiche Tsunamis are big ocean waves that can inundate vast areas of coastal regions. They are generated when sudden fault movement along the ocean floor displaces the water above it. Earthquakes such as the devastating M9 Tohoku earthquake originated from the seafloor east of Honshu Island, Japan, and generated a tsunami that killed about 18,500 people. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) shows how tsunamis are generated in an animation (NOAA Tsunami Animation:https://bit.ly/3PBAr7B). The video includes information on how waves are propagated and the kind of impacts they create. On August 17, 1976, a M8.1 earthquake occurred in the Moro Gulf. The earthquake caused waves to form with wave heights reaching at least 4 meters. The tsunami struck the coastal areas of Cotabato and neighboring areas at midnight leaving 5,000 – 8,000 dead and massive damage to infrastructure. Figure 17. Aftermath of the Moro Gulf 1976 Earthquake and Tsunami in Mindanao. Photo retrieved from: Rappler Seiches on the other hand are disturbances in partially or fully closed bodies of water such as lakes, streams, bays, rivers, and even swimming pools. Seiches can be generated by the shaking from earthquakes and/or upheaval of water caused by landslides. They manifest as the sloshing of water back and forth in an enclosed area, akin to a glass full of water on top of a table that spills over when the table or glass starts to shake laterally. The most notable seiche in the Philippines occurred on Lanao Lake in Mindanao, which was caused by a magnitude 6.5 earthquake on 10 April 1955. Seiches generated by the earthquake wiped out the entire village on the western shore of the lake. Course code: Basics of Resilience​ ​ Page | 22  ​ Fire Earthquakes can also cause fire outbreaks by damaging oil and gas systems, electrical facilities, or unattended candles and cigarette butts. Large-scale fire is usually ignited when flammable vapor or live electricity is exposed to fire or heat. One recent example is the fire incident that burned down the Gaisano Mall in General Santos City after a M 6.3 earthquake shook North Cotabato on 16 October 2019. It is reported that General Santos City experienced an Intensity V shaking, which then resulted in faulty electrical connections, spilled chemicals, and gas leaks that started the fire (Gubalani, 2019). Figure 18. A fire that broke out at the Gaisano Mall after the magnitude 6.3 earthquake Wednesday evening damaged 75 percent of the 2.3-hectare shopping complex at a cost of PhP 2 Billion. ​ Photo retrieved from: MindaNews 1.3.1.3 Volcanic Hazards A volcano is a natural formation that arises when magma, or molten rock, escapes to the Earth's surface, either as a flowing lava stream or as fragmented lava during a Course code: Basics of Resilience​ ​ Page | 23  particularly explosive eruption. Over many years, as lava builds up from successive eruptions, it creates a towering structure that we recognize as a mountain. People often refer to these mountains as volcanoes primarily when they witness the fiery glow of lava during an eruption. Each volcanic explosion enriches the surrounding soil with nutrient-rich materials from deep within the Earth, enhancing its fertility. This continuous replenishment of nutrients allows agricultural communities to enjoy abundant harvests, which is why many choose to live near active volcanoes, despite the inherent risks involved. Figure 19. Map of active and potentially active volcanoes of the Philippines (PHIVOLCS, 2016) Course code: Basics of Resilience​ ​ Page | 24  Volcanic hazards encompass various volcanic processes that pose risks to human life, economic activities, and infrastructure. These hazards stem from volcanic eruptions, which can be categorized as either effusive or explosive. In effusive eruptions, magma that ascends to the surface is low in gas content, resulting in lava gently flowing down the slopes of the volcano without significant display of explosive activity. Conversely, explosive eruptions, characterized by high gas content, shatter the lava into ash- and cinder-sized fragments, ejecting them several kilometers into the atmosphere. The impacts of these hazards can occur during active eruptions or even when the volcanoes are in a dormant state. The hazards associated with volcanoes and volcanic activity are illustrated in the figure below. Figure 20. Types of volcanic hazards. ​ Other hazards that are volcanogenic (of volcanic origin) as listed by the United Nations Office of Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) (Murray, et al., 2021) include the following: ​ Ground shaking (volcanic earthquake) ​ Lightning (volcanic trigger) ​ Urban fire (during/following volcanic eruption) ​ Subsidence and Uplift, including shoreline change (magmatic/volcanic trigger) For an animated guide on how various volcanic hazards form, please refer to ​ the following materials: Volcano Hazards in Minutes – UP Resilience Institute ​ Lava Flow Lava flow refers to the hot, glowing molten rock that cascades down the slopes of a volcano during an eruption. Communities situated in the path of a lava flow face significant risks to both life and property. While the slow movement of lava allows individuals to evacuate relatively easily, infrastructure is not as easily relocated and is often destroyed or engulfed in flames when lava advances into populated areas. Course code: Basics of Resilience​ ​ Page | 25  Figure 21. Incandescent lava flows descending the SW flank of Mayon Volcano on 14 September 1984 (Banks, 1984) ​ Pyroclastic Fall Pyroclastic fall refers to the phenomenon where fragmented lava is forcefully expelled into the atmosphere during a violent volcanic eruption, subsequently returning to the Earth's surface. The descending ash particles (refer to Figure 22) possess sharp edges and can result in a lung condition known as Pneumonoultramicroscopicsilicovolcanoconiosis upon inhalation. This particular lung disease holds the distinction of being the longest word in the English language. Furthermore, the accumulation of ash on rooftops can lead to significant weight, potentially resulting in roof collapse. These ash-sized particles also pose a significant threat to aviation, as they can melt within jet engines, leading to engine stalls. Consequently, it is imperative to continuously monitor explosive volcanic eruptions to provide timely information to airline pilots and prevent potential aviation disasters. Figure 22. The 2020 Taal Ash fragments as seen through a Scanning Electron Microscope (Balangue-Tarriela et al., 2022) Course code: Basics of Resilience​ ​ Page | 26  Figure 23. Pyroclastic fall impacts of the 2020 Taal eruption (a) blanketing a garage in Laguna Province; (b) covering road surfaces; (c) causing the collapse of roofs; (d) impairing road visibility; (e) causing danger to inbound flights to Manila; and (f) damaging crops. Photo retrieved from: Balangue-Tarriela, et al. (2022) ​ Pyroclastic Density Currents A pyroclastic density current (PDC) is an extremely hot and rapidly moving mixture of gases and volcanic debris that flows down the slopes of a volcano during an explosive eruption. Typical PDCs reach temperatures between 300°C and 700°C (Dufek et al., 2015) and can travel at speeds of up to 300 m/s (Cole et al., 2015), posing a significant threat as they destroy all obstacles in their path. Figure 24. Effects of base surges, a type of PDC, on the southeast portion of Taal Volcano Island after its 12 January 2020 eruption. (A) Snapped and splintered tree trunk of Ceiba pentrada; (B) Ruptured bamboo; (C) Scorched and debarked tree on the side facing the crater; (D) Base surge deposit run-up against the school wall facing the crater. The Inset photo shows plastered base surge deposits. Photo retrieved from: Lagmay, et al., (2021) Course code: Basics of Resilience​ ​ Page | 27  ​ Lahar Lahars are generated by the movement of mud and debris along a channel, triggered by rainwater or the melting of snow that dislodges volcanic materials accumulated on a volcano's slopes. These flowing rivers of volcanic debris can reach speeds up to 10 m/s, overwhelming everything in their path (Gudmundsson, 2015). Lahars typically occur during volcanic eruptions or shortly thereafter. They may also develop during intervals of volcanic activity, provided there is sufficient water to displace and mobilize the volcanic materials on the slopes. The deposits left by lahar flows are often characterized by large boulders scattered across the debris field. More fluid variants, called hyperconcentrated lahar flows, have less debris and lack the necessary velocity to transport boulders. The deposit of dilute lahar flows dominantly consists of finer volcanic fragments. Figure 25. 2006 Mayon Volcano Lahar Deposits (A) In profile view, BGL is the underlying buried grass line. (B) Edge of a lahar deposit is about 0.5 m thick. Photo retrieved from: Paguican, et al. (2009) More resources about the recent Mt. Kanlaon eruption featuring volcanic mudflows: ​ Torrent of volcanic mudflow from Kanlaon hits village https://bit.ly/40zEYO7 ​ Just In | Sitwasyon sa Padudusan Falls, Brgy. Masulog, Canlaon City https://bit.ly/4ak2H8i ​ Ballistic Projectiles / Tephra Emissions Ballistic projectiles are fragments of volcanic rock or lava ejected at varying velocities from the volcanic vent and follow cannonball-like trajectories. These hazardous objects are referred to as volcanic bombs if the ejected material is hot and molten. Their dimensions can vary significantly, with some being as large as a truck. Ballistic projectiles pose a significant volcanic threat, particularly in areas close to the eruptive center. In certain locations, such as the Stromboli Volcano, authorities have constructed ballistic shelters to provide safety for tourists if the volcano unexpectedly launches these projectiles toward them. Course code: Basics of Resilience​ ​ Page | 28  Figure 26. Lava fountaining and flowing from Mayon Volcano during its February 2018 eruption Photo retrieved from: Pfeiffer (2018) ​ Volcanic Gas Emissions Volcanoes emit gases, fragmented materials from within the volcano, and heat into the atmosphere. These gases are dispersed by ash particles, while some may crystallize into salts or convert into aerosols, a term that denotes minute particles or droplets suspended in the air. The predominant gas released is water vapor, which is fortunately non-toxic. Additionally, volcanic gases can be produced when water is heated by magma and can escape from pyroclastic flows, lahars, and lava flows. The combustion of vegetation also contributes to gas emissions. The primary gases emitted by volcanoes include water vapor (H2O), carbon dioxide (CO2), and sulfur dioxide (SO2), which are the most prevalent volcanic gases. In smaller quantities, volcanoes may also release carbon monoxide (CO), hydrogen sulfide (H2S), carbonyl sulfide (COS), carbon disulfide (CS2), hydrogen chloride (HCl), hydrogen (H2), methane (CH4), hydrogen fluoride (HF), boron (B), hydrogen bromide (HBr), mercury (Hg) vapor, and various organic compounds (Cadle, 1980). The risks associated with volcanic gas emissions encompass respiratory issues, climate cooling that can lead to agricultural failures and famine, and, in certain instances, widespread poisoning. ​ Debris Avalanche / Sector Collapse Debris avalanches or sector collapse is another type of hazard associated with volcanoes. These are landslides from the large-scale collapse of the flank of the volcano. One such example is the sector collapse of the northern flank of Mount St. Helens Volcano, which resulted in a debris avalanche and a simultaneously explosive eruption. However, not all debris avalanches are accompanied by eruptive activity. Unstable slopes of a volcano can collapse due to the pull of gravity even without an explosion. Debris avalanches are extremely dangerous because they are known to travel for several kilometers. Communities in the path of the debris avalanche can either get completely buried or bulldozed for hundreds of meters. Debris avalanches Course code: Basics of Resilience​ ​ Page | 29  have happened in some Philippine volcanoes in Iriga Volcano, Banahaw Volcano, and Kanlaon Volcano. Iriga volcano has a remnant shape like Mount St. Helens where a large chunk of the volcano edifice has been removed (Figure 26). Figure 27. The horseshoe-shaped avalanche scar and post-collapse block lava flow and crater in Mt. Iriga, Camarines Sur, Bicol Province. Photo retrieved from: Belousov, Belousova, & Listanco (2023) ​ Volcanic Tsunami and Seiche Not all tsunamis originate from seismic activity. They can also be caused by volcanic activity and related volcanic hazard phenomena. Underwater explosions and shock waves caused by large explosions can trigger large waves in bodies of water. The interaction of shock waves with ocean waves has the potential to generate tsunamis that reach heights of several meters. In certain instances, the energy released during an eruption alone can cause the sea to heave. Another way tsunamis are related to volcanoes is when magma rises under a volcano. The forceful ascent of magma induces volcanic earthquakes, which if large enough, can in turn disturb water to form a tsunami. Additionally, a significant collapse or landslide from a volcano's slopes can create a tsunami upon impact. It happens as a swiftly moving landslide enters the water or as it displaces water behind and ahead of a rapidly moving underwater landslide. In a fully or partially enclosed body of water, a series of standing waves or a seiche (pronounced "saysh") can happen. These standing waves oscillate with the enclosed body of water, such as a bay, lake, river, canal, or a swimming pool, and are high enough to be hazardous. Notable examples of volcanic tsunami and seiches that have occurred in the Philippines are included in the Catalogue of Philippine Tsunamis and Seiches (Bautista et al., 2012) and can be requested from PHIVOLCS through this link: Philippine Tsunami and Seiches: https://bit.ly/4akYO32 Course code: Basics of Resilience​ ​ Page | 30  1.3.1.4 Special Topics ​ Landslides Landslides are examples of a geologic process known as mass wasting, the gravitational movement downhill of rocks and soil. This includes both rain-induced landslides and earthquake-induced landslides discussed in the previous sections. There are also other potential causes for landslides such as roadworks, excavation, and streamflow undercutting. Gravity is the main culprit of such events, but several factors can contribute to the destabilization of a slope (USGS, 2004; Tarbuck, Lutgens, & Tasa, 2016): ​ Water Content ​ Slope Steepness ​ Presence/Absence of Vegetation ​ Geological Phenomena such as earthquakes and volcanic eruptions ​ Human Activities such as excavations and explosions Figure 28. Ucab, Itogon, Benguet landslide on September 15, 2018 (Tamulto, 2021) ​ Land Subsidence Land subsidence is the abrupt or gradual downward movement of the ground surface due to the settling of earth materials beneath it (Galloway, Jones, & Ingebritsen, 1999; Poland & International Hydrological Programme, 1984). This is caused by either natural or anthropogenic causes, such as the following (Nicholls, et al., 2021) : ​ natural compaction of sediments ​ severe withdrawal of groundwater from ​ sinkholes aquifer bodies ​ tectonic motion ​ drainage of organic soils Course code: Basics of Resilience​ ​ Page | 31 ​ human activities, such as underground mining and construction of fishponds, etc. Fast rates of land subsidence have been observed in several major cities throughout the world during the past 50 years, implying its link to urbanization. Excessive extraction causes downward compression of rocks and sediments to fill spaces formerly occupied by groundwater. Figure 29. Extraction of groundwater using manual water pumps. Image acquired from (The Manila Times, 2019) Figure 30. The occurrence of a sinkhole in Dumanjug, Cebu investigated by MGB. Photo retrieved from: https://www.pressreader.com/philippines/sunstar-cebu/20120221 ​ Land Subsidence and Sea Level Rise Course code: Basics of Resilience​ ​ Page | 32  Land subsidence, unlike other natural events such as major volcanic eruptions and earthquakes, may occur slowly and consistently. As a result, it will not be felt until floods or other potential consequences are noticed. The nature of this hazard necessitates early detection and response. Figure 31. A chapel in Sitio Pariahan, Barangay Taliptip in coastal Bulacan inundated due to rising sea levels accompanied by land subsidence (GMA News, 2018) Watch this video to know more about what happened to Sitio Pariahan, a village situated on Manila Bay where a combination of many factors has made the area increasingly prone to floods and typhoon damage: Living In A Village That’s Sinking Into The Sea: https://bit.ly/4aiNWCK ​ Biological Hazards Biological hazards are a range of hazards caused by organisms such as animals, pathogens, toxins, and other biological agents. According to the UNDRR, this classification includes infestations, infectious diseases, and other organic hazards such as red tides, suicide clusters, antimicrobial resistance, and more. A recent notable biological disaster is the COVID-19 pandemic. It was caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, a strain of a species of viruses that also included SARS-CoV-1, the pathogen involved with the 2002-2004 SARS outbreak. The virus was first detected in Wuhan, China in December 2019 but began rapidly spreading across the world in the next months. Course code: Basics of Resilience​ ​ Page | 33  Figure 32. People in queue during the COVID-19 pandemic (East Asia Forum, 2020)​ ​ Environmental Hazards The ecosystem protects and nurtures humanity. The decline of our environment's ability to provide essential services (e.g. clean air, water, and healthy land) along with the loss of diverse biological life and disruption of natural processes, poses a significant threat. This includes sea ice disappearing, permafrost melting, saltier soil, and a loss of biodiversity. Plastics are one of the primary culprits of environmental pollution, disrupting the Earth's food chains and harming our climate systems. As in the case of unexpected contamination and deforestation, degradation can also occur very quickly. Environmental degradation can aggravate the effects of other hazards. Destroying marine and coastal ecosystems increases the effects of storm surges. Moreover, sand mining in rivers alters currents and lowers the water table. Deforestation may increase the risk of landslides. Changes in land cover and climate can have an impact on the frequency and severity of heat waves, droughts, and floods (UNDRR, 2020). Course code: Basics of Resilience​ ​ Page | 34  Figure 33. a.) Aerial view of the oil spill from the sunken fuel tanker MT Princess Empress on the shores of Pola, Oriental Mindoro on March 8, 2023 Retrieved from: GMA News Online b.) Coral bleaching manifests as white patches on colorful coral beds at the South Park dive site of the Tubbataha Reefs National Park. It is suspected that the extreme heat caused by the El Niño phenomenon caused this. Retrieved from: Inquirer.Net 1.3.2. Anthropogenic Hazards Anthropogenic hazards, also commonly known as human-induced hazards, are induced entirely or predominantly by human activities and choices. Figure 34. Types of anthropogenic hazards a.​ Societal / Conflict & War Societal hazards stem primarily from human actions and decisions, posing risks to both people and their surroundings. These hazards originate from various sources such as socio-political and economic activities, cultural norms, human mobility, and technological advancements, as well as societal behaviors, whether deliberate or accidental. They can escalate into disasters, leading to widespread fatalities, illnesses, injuries, disabilities, and other health ramifications. These can also disrupt societal structures and services, and lead to significant social, economic, and environmental consequences. ​ International Armed Conflict (IAC) - refers to clashes between two or more sovereign states or organized armed groups acting under state authority. These conflicts are governed primarily by international humanitarian law, notably the Geneva Conventions and their Additional Protocols (ICRC, 2016). Course code: Basics of Resilience​ ​ Page | 35  Example: Israeli-Palestinian Conflict: https://bit.ly/40k8EgP ​ Non-International Armed Conflict (NIAC) - known as non-international armed conflict, denotes armed confrontations occurring within a single state's borders involving the government's armed forces and one or more non-state armed groups or between such groups (ICRC, 2008). Example: Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) and Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) conflict with the Philippine Government: https://bit.ly/40mgYNl ​ Civil Unrest - A term widely employed by various United Nations agencies, funds, and programs to denote both violent and non-violent collective actions by groups. Civil unrest is often defined as limited political violence, sporadic collective violence, or non-violent and mildly violent collective actions (Kalyvas, 2000). Example: 1986 EDSA People Power Revolution: https://bit.ly/40fHeZH ​ Explosive Remnants of War - A comprehensive term encompassing a broad range of phenomena. Although lacking a universally agreed-upon definition within the United Nations, it is commonly utilized across UN agencies, funds, and programs to describe both violent and non-violent group actions. Example: World War II Bomb Remnant: https://bit.ly/42fsWL2 ​ Environmental Degradation from Conflict - describes the decline in the environment's ability to fulfill social and ecological objectives and requirements, as defined by the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR, 2009). Example: China Intrusion’s Impact on the West Philippine Sea Ecosystem: https://bit.ly/3BXuLlq ​ Violence - The deliberate or unintentional utilization of force, whether physical or psychological, threatened or enacted, against an individual, group, community, or government. Violence may be targeted or indiscriminate, motivated by various factors such as political, religious, social, economic, ethnic, racial, or gender-based considerations. It can aim to directly or indirectly cause harm, injury, or death (Krug, Dahlberg, Mercy, Zwi, & Lozano, 2002). Both armed and unarmed forms of violence can occur in both conflict and non-conflict settings, and it has been explicitly recognized as a significant public health concern (Rutherford, Zwi, Grove, & Butchart, 2007). Example: Violence Against the Manobo-Pulangiyon Tribe over Dispute on Bukidnon Ancestral Lands: https://bit.ly/40f3KSx ​ Stampede or Crushing (Human) - is the surge of individuals in a crowd, in response to a perceived danger or loss of physical space. It often disrupts the orderly movement of crowds resulting in irrational and dangerous movements for self-protection leading to injuries and fatalities (Illiyas, Mani, Pradeepkumar, & Mohan, 2013). Example: 2006 Wowowee Stampede: https://bit.ly/42fxste Course code: Basics of Resilience​ ​ Page | 36  ​ Financial Shock - An unforeseen disturbance originating from the financial sector with significant ramifications on an economy, whether national, regional, or global. The term typically refers to events causing adverse impacts (ECB, 2013). Example: 1997 Asian Financial Crisis: https://bit.ly/4fYIN42 b.​ Technological Hazards Technological hazards encompass many hazards that can vary in scale and magnitude. Technological hazards mainly and usually encompass the threat of mishandling Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear (CBRN) materials. These hazards categorized under technological hazards are all anthropogenic, mostly accidental, and unexpected and thus, have little to no warning signs before an incident that poses a hazard to others occurs. However, these can be deliberate as well. ​ Chemical agents - These are substances that are toxic, corrosive, flammable, or reactive. They can include industrial chemicals, such as nerve agents, blister agents, and toxic industrial chemicals. Chemical Incidents are characterized by the rapid onset of symptoms for affected individuals (minutes to hours) and easily observed signatures such as colored residue, dead foliage, pungent odor, dead insects and animals. ​ Biological agents - Refers to viruses, bacteria, fungi, and toxins that have the potential to be used as a means of affecting human health in a variety of ways. Biological Incidents are characterized by the onset of symptoms in hours to days in an unusually high number of people and/or animals. Typically, there will be no characteristic of a biological attack because biological agents are usually odorless and colorless. Because of the delayed onset of symptoms in a biological incident, the area affected may be greater due to the movement of infected individuals. ​ Radiological materials - Materials that emit radiation, which can cause harm to living organisms. This category includes radioactive isotopes used in medical, industrial, or research settings, as well as those used in dirty bombs or radiological dispersal devices. ​ Nuclear materials - Nuclear materials involve fissile or radioactive substances used in nuclear weapons, reactors, or other nuclear applications. These materials can cause significant destruction and long-term environmental contamination if mishandled or deployed improperly. To learn more about Anthropogenic Hazards (definition, effects, and examples), watch the lecture video of Martin Aguda, Jr., an emergency manager: https://bit.ly/4gWAuXB Course code: Basics of Resilience​ ​ Page | 37  1.4 Disaster Timelines and Reliable Sources of Disaster Information Hazards are rarely a one-time event, especially in areas that are susceptible to several. If they impact a community, hazards become disasters which can repeat in the same place. Hence, it is essential to create lists of such in the form of disaster timelines. Disaster timelines provide an overview of recurring hazards and disasters in communities. These can be as simple as a bulleted list or as presentable as a visual diagram. Either way, the information below is necessary for a disaster timeline: ​ Name of the Disaster (official or arbitrary) ​ Date/Date Range when the disaster occurred (as exact as possible) The following information can also be included if available as they can be useful for visualizing the nature, extent, and impact of a disaster: ​ Disaster types and subtypes (e.g., geological – seismic – ground shaking, hydrometeorological – storm surge, etc.) ​ Number of Casualties ​ Areas affected by the disaster (e.g., region, province, municipality/city, barangay, sitio) ​ Other information (e.g., laws that could have affected the impact of subsequent disasters, events that could have aggravated/mitigated the effects of a disaster, etc.) Below is the first page of the Disaster Timeline for Barangay Kusiong, Datu Odin Sinsuat, Maguindanao del Norte. It has the essentials, the name and the date range of the disaster on each entry enumerated from oldest to most recent. However, it has additional elements that help visualize the hazard and disaster history of Barangay Kusiong. Course code: Basics of Resilience​ ​ Page | 38  Figure 35. The first and third page of the UP Resilience Institute’s Disaster Timeline for Barangay Kusiong, Datu Odin Sinsuat, Maguindanao del Norte (1636 to present) The disasters were classified into two major types – geological disasters and hydrometeorological disasters, as discussed in previous sections of this module. The disaster subcategory of each entry was noted through a colored horizontal bar beside the entry; the color symbology is written below the title box. An additional marker – a yellow circle with a solid black line – is placed at the intersection of the colored bar and the central black line for entries that are confirmed to have directly affected Barangay Kusiong. Dash-lined circles indicate that the disaster may have directly affected the barangay according to historical sources. Although documented to have affected political boundaries enclosing the target area (e.g., ARMM, BARMM, etc), other entries don’t have this marker as there is no indication that they have affected Barangay Kusiong. Nonetheless, they are still retained in the timeline as Barangay Kusiong may have experienced the extent of their associated hazards (e.g., ground shaking, severe wind), especially if barangays adjacent to the target area are directly affected. Each entry in the hydrometeorological disaster classification contains the regions affected by the disaster. If available, the number of casualties is also indicated. This information shows how severe and extensive the impact of a particular hydrometeorological disaster is on the country. National laws were also included. This information can be used to assess if these laws are effective in mitigating the impact of future disasters. Course code: Basics of Resilience​ ​ Page | 39  To populate a disaster timeline, one should have access to reliable disaster information. With the advent of the internet, most disaster information is available online but, with the rise of fake news, it is crucial to be critical of sources. The following subsections discuss some of the most reliable sources for this type of information. Government Agencies Government units, agencies, and institutions are the best sources of information as it is in their mandates to study, record, and respond to particular disasters in the country. ​ National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC), previously known as the National Disaster Coordinating Council (NDCC), provides detailed reports of hazards, incidents, and major disasters, whether natural or anthropogenic. Their situational reports from 2009 to the present are accessible online via their website (https://ndrrmc.gov.ph/). ​ Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS) is involved in monitoring geophysical hazards and disasters such as earthquakes, tsunamis, and volcanic activities. They regularly publish earthquake and volcano bulletins and primers on their website (https://www.phivolcs.dost.gov.ph/). Additionally, they publish primers and articles on major earthquakes that provide further insight into the event. ​ Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), being the country’s current weather bureau, is mandated to monitor atmospheric phenomena within the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). They regularly provide weather reports every day and advisories for thunderstorms, rainfall, storm surge, and more. They track storms and publish these tracks on their website (https://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/). ​ Mines and Geosciences Bureau (MGB) (https://mgb.gov.ph/) is responsible for overseeing the preservation, administration, enhancement, and utilization of the Philippines’ mineral resources. Their offices have websites where they publish advisories and geohazard maps for their respective regions. These offices also collaborate in post-disaster responses and assessments. However, reports from such activities may not be available online and a formal request to the relevant office may be required. ​ Local government units provide firsthand information on disasters and incidents that occurred in their localities. Their disaster risk reduction and management councils are the main source of the NDRRMC/NDCC situational reports. However, not all local governments have an online presence or, if they have, do not necessarily post information publicly. Hence, a personal transaction may be warranted to procure such information. Course code: Basics of Resilience​ ​ Page | 40  ​ UP NOAH Center is a government institution involved in disaster risk and management through research, development, and extension services. The center’s website (https://noah.up.edu.ph/) features an interactive hazard map for floods, landslides, and storm surges. Locations of volcanoes as well as weather satellite images, Internet of Things sensor data, and rain forecasts are also available on the NOAH website. International Sources ​ ReliefWeb (https://reliefweb.int/) is an online information service associated with the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UN OCHA). Other than situational reports from NDRRMC/NDCC, they also archive press releases, reports, and analyses produced by other organizations. ​ Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT) (https://www.emdat.be/) is an international disaster database managed by the Center for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED).. It contains about 26,000 disasters from around the world dating back to 1900. Its data is open access for non-commercial use. ​ United States Geological Society (USGS) (https://www.usgs.gov/) is a scientific agency whose research encompasses various scientific fields such as geology, hydrology, and biology. It mainly provides information on natural hazards, resources, and the environment. Although based in the United States of America, it studies notable events outside of the nation such as the eruption of Mount Pinatubo. It also publishes earthquake data from around the world. ​ National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) (https://www.noaa.gov/) is a United States agency that studies the atmosphere and the oceans. In line with this, they play a crucial role in weather forecasting, mapping the seas, and more. Much like the USGS, the NOAA also researches notable global disasters such as the onslaught of Super Typhoon Yolanda (Haiyan). ​ International Red Cross and Red Crescent Movement members such as the Philippine Red Cross and American Red Cross respond and aid during and after a disaster. Along with this, they updated reports and summaries of the event and their disaster response which are available online. ​ Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program (GVP) (https://volcano.si.edu/) is a program documenting, researching, and disseminating information about volcanic activity around the world. It has a dedicated website (https://volcano.si.edu/) that provides summary profiles of volcanoes as well as photos and external links to databases. Course code: Basics of Resilience​ ​ Page | 41  News Outlets News articles can serve as a source of information for disasters in the absence of detailed situational reports. It is recommended to corroborate this data with other sources and consult more reliable sources once available to ensure accuracy. Other Sources Other than those enumerated above, disaster information can also be derived from other sources. ​ The people involved such as victims and first responders can also be counted as sources. They can also provide validation of smaller events that are usually not covered in reports – such as the warning signs they’ve experienced and certain cultural aspects that may have affected the event. For example, Rodolfo and Umbal (2008) stated in their paper that the Aytas of Pinatubo have a legend recounting one of the eruptions of Pinatubo, particularly the Buag eruption that occurred around 500-800 years ago. The same legend also mentioned a lahar-dammed lake that served as the predecessor of the modern-day Mapanuepe Lake. These accounts are valuable in terms of being records of prehistoric events that only the indigenous population’s ancestors witnessed. ​ For other historical disasters, information becomes scarcer as one goes back into the past. However, some books and catalogs were able to record these events. Some of them are available in online repositories (e.g., https://www.gutenberg.org/) or libraries such as the following: ​ The Philippine Islands (Blair & Robertson, 1903) is a 55-volume compilation of Spanish Era documents relevant to the Philippines from 1493 to 1898, including the reports on the status of the Philippine islands during disasters. ​ Catalogue of Violent and Destructive Earthquakes in the Philippines (Maso, 1910) is a collection of violent and destructive earthquakes from 1599 to 1909. ​ ShakeNet is a website (https://shakenet.raspberryshake.org/) for a seismic network composed of Raspberry Shake seismometers. These seismometers provide real-time earthquake monitoring to the network through earthquake detections and recordings of their sounds. The website also provides the epicenter locations, magnitudes, and depths of real-time earthquakes. Course code: Basics of Resilience​ ​ Page | 42  1.5. High-resolution Maps and Models In conducting natural hazards assessment in an area, it is imperative to obtain and compile available data and resources. A literature review can be conducted by acquiring information from relevant government agencies and previous works in the area. Primary data can be obtained through field inspection and interviews. This section will introduce you to concepts of hazard and risk assessment and existing high-resolution maps from different institutions. 1.5.1 Deterministic vs. Probabilistic Risk Assessment A hazard map or model shows the nature and extent of actual and potential hazards in an area. This can be used for many purposes such as land-use planning, insurance, environmental protection, and disaster management. The initial stage in hazard mapping is determining the nature, frequency, and magnitude of past events. A further step is to try to predict the nature and extent of future events through statistical estimation and/or modeling. To assess the risk of a disaster given different scenarios, two approaches can be utilized (UNDRR, 2021): a.​ Deterministic Risk Assessment Deterministic Risk Assessment accounts only for historical occurrences of disasters. Due to this, areas without historical disasters aren’t considered at risk. Hence, this approach may underestimate the actual risk of a locality. o​ Considers the impact of a single scenario, typically: ​ Worst-case (maximum losses) ​ Best-case (losses that can be absorbed) ​ Most “likely” (losses that are most likely to occur) o​ The probability of an event is finite o​ Example: “A magnitude 7.2 earthquake is expected to occur along the Marikina Valley Fault within the next 50 years.” b.​ Probabilistic Risk Assessment Probabilistic Risk Assessment takes into account the characteristics of an area such as the geology and geography. Other than the present conditions, climate change conditions are often included in the assessments. Hence, even without the occurrence of a historical disaster, future disasters can be anticipated and efforts can be made to mitigate their effects. o​ Considers all possible scenarios, their likelihood, and associated impacts o​ Inherently contain uncertainties due to the unpredictable nature of hazards as well as from the gaps in our knowledge and measurement of hazards o​ Example: “There is a 10% chance of an earthquake with a magnitude greater than 7.0 occurring in the Metro Manila area within the next 10 years.” Course code: Basics of Resilience​ ​ Page | 43  Figure 36. Deterministic and probabilistic flood hazard maps (a) A deterministic map with only one event or scenario, usually the worst-case scenario. This map shows flooding level for a 100-year rain-return period baseline scenario. (b) Probabilistic models or multi-scenario flood hazard maps, generated from different rainfall amounts or climate change projections of rainfall. Figure 37. Probabilistic and deterministic volcanic ash hazard maps A probabilistic map showing the likelihood (or percent chance) of accumulating 10 mm of volcanic ash (left). A deterministic map showing the likely thickness of volcanic ash to accumulate (right) (Thompson, Lindsay, & Gaillard, 2015). Course code: Basics of Resilience​ ​ Page | 44  ​ Figure 38. Probabilistic storm surge hazard maps These maps show the varying levels of inundation considering different storm surge heights. Typhoon Yolanda best represents the SSA 4 map, with a 100-year return period. Meaning, it has a 1% chance of occurring in any given year. 1.5.2. Multi-hazard Maps A multi-hazard map is a composite illustration of different single natural hazards of varying magnitude, frequency, and area of effect. Since an area may be susceptible to more than one hazard, a multiple hazard map will facilitate interpreting the varying hazard information, increasing the likelihood that hazard maps will be used in the decision-making process. This approach can provide information on finding locations that are either suitable for a particular use or are susceptible to the hazards considered. The multi-hazard map is also a comprehensive analytical tool for assessing vulnerability and risk when combined with the mapping of critical facilities. Course code: Basics of Resilience​ ​ Page | 45  Figure 39. Composite flood, landslide, and storm surge hazard maps of Masaguitsit, Lobo, Batangas from NOAH Center, UP Resilience Institute (2024). Notable on the map are places without hazards. These are the places that are ideal for evacuation centers and further development. Hazard Maps Sources and Interpretation Hazard maps provide important information to help people understand risks from natural hazards and help mitigate disasters. They highlight areas affected by or vulnerable to hazards. Fortunately, multiple hazard maps that are open to the public and easily accessible to everyone. MGB Hazard Maps The MGB of the Department of Environment and Natural Resources (DENR) developed Landslide and Flood Susceptibility Maps and made them open to the public so that everyone can request a copy. Below is an example of a multi-hazard map of the Province of Ifugao, complete with legends and hazard level descriptions. Course code: Basics of Resilience​ ​ Page | 46  Figure 40. Combined landslide and flood hazard map formulated by MGB (2011). Compared to the map in Figure 39, the MGB version has all places marked as hazardous with varying levels of susceptibility to floods and landslides. ​ HazardHunterPH HazardHunterPH (https://hazardhunter.georisk.gov.ph/) is another open-access tool that utilizes data from government agencies to generate indicative hazard assessment reports on the user's specified location. HazardHunterPH is a product of GeoRisk Philippines, a multi-agency initiative led by PHIVOLCS and participated by PAGASA, Advanced Science and Technology Institute (ASTI), MGB, National Mapping and Resource Information Authority (NAMRIA), Office of Civil Defense (OCD), and Department of Education (DepEd). This site includes data on several hazards, including seismic, volcanic, and hydrometeorological hazards. Figure 48 shows the landing page of the website. Like any search engine, its homepage prompts the user to input the desired location for hazard assessment. The user can input either the name or the coordinates of the target location or skip it entirely and go to map view to manually search for the target location. Once the location is determined, the system will prompt the user to wait while it finalizes the hazard assessment report. Once the “See Result” button is ready, the assessment is complete. Course code: Basics of Resilience​ ​ Page | 47  Figure 41. The landing page of HazardHunterPH website (https://hazardhunter.georisk.gov.ph/) ​ ​ The left panel contains different display options for the map view, while the right panel contains the summary of the hazard assessment report. Each hazard identified in the assessment has its corresponding hazard description. At the bottom right, encased in a green box, is the option to “View Report with Recommendations.” Clicking that button will redirect you to the full report containing all the details, assessments, explanations, and recommendations per hazard. Below is a portion of a sample of the hazard assessment report generated by HazardHunterPH. ​ Course code: Basics of Resilience​ ​ Page | 48  Figure 42. View of HazardHunterPH website after you select the target location. It shows the hazard assessment on the right panel, while the left panel shows the different customization you want. ​ Figure 43. Portions of the sample hazard assessment report generated from the HazardHunterPH website. ​ NOAH Website The NOAH Center of the UP Resilience Institute launched an improved website (https://noah.up.edu.ph) in October 2021, providing users with access to the institution’s assessments of flood, landslide, and storm surge hazards anywhere in the country. The NOAH website is easily accessible by anyone with an internet connection. Course code: Basics of Resilience​ ​ Page | 49  Figure 44. Landing page of the NOAH website (https://noah.up.edu.ph) The homepage of the site opens to a box with the title: “Know Your Hazards.” Here, the user can determine a particular location’s hazard le